If delphine isn't oracle then what is she?

 

Spiritualist or Judge, whatever mafias 6th role was.

I mean lets put it this way; say we lynch Waco->Rubicon->Jarizok and the game...doesn't end? We no longer have a Gravedigger or Apprentice in play and by that time Fontisian will likely be night killed if she's town. So we attempt to decipher Miner/Delphines alignment...how? We'll no longer have flip information and have to outright lynch both of them if we think they're scum...and that means spending 3 lynches due to Miners vest.

So..in the world where Jarizok->Rubicon->Waco doesn't win us the game, would you rather spend 1 lynch right now and know their alignment relatively confidently, or toss up spending 3 lynches on it later and it being gamelosing if we're wrong about the choice we make?

---------- Post automerged at 07:15 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:14 AM ----------

I don't think I can put it any better than that re; "Beating more worlds".

 

I'd rather just lynch rubicon today and then if he isn't a witch then I'd maybe consider a world where delphine might be a witch.

 

Like say we kill through those 3 players and the games still in play.

We then have to decide "Are Delphine/Miner mafia" "Are we looking at something that involves Newcomb/Kai/Vaimes" "Is there a deep wolf like Vira". We're not going to know which of the lynches we've made flipped town or scum, we're not going to know how many scum are still alive and we're going to have commit to 1 option and play with it and lose to all other worlds there.

I'd much rather resolve the Delphine/Miner situation now, if they're V/V we should win this despite the mslynch due to the other player becoming another hard clear inside the game and having information re; worlds. If they're W/W well we'll win the game due to lynching them.

I'm just not really ready to go for the "Chaingun Jarizok/Rubicon/Waco" and go ???????????? if the games not over. If you are, go for it but I'm pretty happy lynching Delphine here.

 

I think we can lynch rubicon and waco, and still determine whether it's delphine + miner relatively safely.

 

How many more lynches do we waste on paranoia before we actually start lynching likely witches?

 

Okay. If he's town you've just lynched the town apprentice, we'll have all our information this game from Jarizok who you think might be scum and Fontisian who has a 1-shot action and who mafia can kill to stop her information from being revealed. If he's mafia and mafia just shoot Fontiisian and Jarizok says that Rubicon was town, you know what tomorrow? Nothing.

 

If jarizok is a witch he's just gonna lie about delphine anyway.

 

So facts time, I've been downplaying my % chance on Delphine/Miner being a world in the thread for quite some time D2 for reasons, it wasn't ever around 5%, it was closer to 30%. I was hoping that by having Fluff have a vest he'd be smart enough to investigate them and we'd not have to deal with this shit.

Enjoi.

 

You know this plan relied on the same person who peeked you n1 right?

 

Jarizok/Delphine are hard unaligned, if he says she's town then she's town. If he says she's scum we have two definitive worlds. Rubicon/Jarizok are not hard unaligned, there's not just two worlds.

 

What makes them hard unaligned?

 

Thought he'd run through the logic in his head of "2 investigations are better than 1". I obviously thought wrong, I was not a happy camper at work today when I saw the claim. But now you maybe understand how/why I've been playing like I have?

---------- Post automerged at 07:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:27 AM ----------

Jarizok was first to bring up Miner/Delphine being W/W, he went into a huge elaboration on it D2, it was his biggest theory and read, he's also been hugely advocating that Kai suicides onto Delphine.

 

The best we can do with regard to that is:

lynch delphine
fonti peeks GD.

Fonti and Jarizok then independently report on Delphine's alignment.

As Delphine / Miner / Font / Jarizok is an impossible world, the only possible -EV lie for us in this spot is if font and jarizok are witches and claim Delphine is scum.

 

Regardless I'm not lynching delphine when that world is unlikely and she kind of breadcrumbed her role.

 

Fable - If you're scum that get an oracle role, you're telling me you wouldn't breadcrumb your role to attempt to clear a partner? But meh, we'll lynch scum without you.

There's a solution to this too; Miner can hold his shot tonight and if Jarizok/Fontisian claim that Delphine is a witch he can shoot one of them, it'd be a 1-1 trade regardless of which is scum.

 

tbh I wouldn't be opposed to testing Cobalt the same way, but we only have the resources to test one pair with any degree of confidence.

---------- Post automerged at 10:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:34 PM ----------

Miner can only choose from shooting tonight or not shooting at all.

 

Just like how atum was super likely to be a witch right?

 

Eh, that blows. Still probably having him shoot in Rubicon/Waco if he's town.

You do realise I didn't have a strong scum read on him, right? I just didn't have anyone I was super confident that was scum and mslynching someone that wasn't Atum there was super -EV. It allowed us to remove someone from the suspect pool and vest Fluff and if he thought about his investigation enough he'd have resolved Miner/Delphine with it.

And with that I'm heading to bed, unlikely to post for ~24 hours.

 

That's not what it seemed like to me and this just proves my point that you're just wasting lynches on paranoia.