I also spent like 30 posts yesterday accusing you (and others) of TMI if waco is a witch.

But I might as well not post since you're clearly not doing much more than skimming my posts and coming away with exactly the impression that you want.

 

Lol, just because Waco being a witch would be a boost to your case against me (a villager) among others (some of which are villagers) doesn't mean his flip is more relevant than Rubicon's who almost the ENTIRE thread has FoSed at one point or another.

---------- Post automerged at 09:49 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:48 AM ----------

If you're town, you're playing selfishly, but I think you're a witch, so.

 

The real question is will we ever get the read list rubicon had promised to give 2 in-game days ago?

 

KaiDASH Amount of people who have explained what witches have done this game if I'm in the coven: 0

---------- Post automerged at 12:12 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:12 AM ----------

Stupid phone

 

Let's talk about this game and my head space right here. I do apologise in advance as I know this'll come across as wally and lots of paragraphs of dull analysis involving things I'm touched on before but if you're only going to read/consider/listen to one post of mine this game I want it to be this one.

It's effectively universally agreed upon that Vira/Vaimes/Fluff/Fable/Cobalt/Myself are town, if anyone thinks there's /seriously/ scum inside there they need to speak up and provide solid reasoning because I'm very comfortable playing like that pool is confirmed town from hereon out. And no, please no more "Fable might not be acolyte" theories.

Fontisians overall play this game has come across as /incredibly/ town. I do not see Owner/Fonti playing out EOD1 in the manner it did if they're partners, just not a thing with how Fontisians deals with her partners. I also think her interactions with Koalas is never W/W which I've gone into already and I'm /that/ confident that Koalas was a hit here. Now let's look a her play today after being town read by most of the room; she wants to orchestrate 'burn everyone but Cobalt/Miner duos' including herself, there's no scum motivation for this unless it's Fonti/Delphine/Miner and I don't think D1 plays out that way with that team. Like there's a lot of Fontis play and plan that just straight up frustrates and annoys me but there's no scum motivation or agenda to it. I'm outright willing to take the blame entirely if she's mafia here, I'm /that/ confident in her being town.

Now let's talk Kai, logically he's someone that /no one/ should be worried about or suspecting at the moment. Koalas vesting Kai is something that happens in every single world where Kai is scum other than Newcomb & Kak being partners, town losing 4 players (including one being Fluff) and the assassination for 2 scum one of who was already caught and the other who can't end game due to his role being claimed is a scums dream and Kai absolutely would have done it. And Kai/Newcomb + 1 that is in the PoE (Waco/Rubicon/Jarizok) just never win this game since those three are all dying and Kai and Newcomb are forced to die mechanically and thus can't be players that end game as scum. Like no one should be worried about or voting Kai today. So please, stop considering Kai here.

Those reads/thoughts I want everyone to really think about and when they agree with that realise that they need to give the Miner/Delphine world I'm posting below some serious consideration. But if you've made it this far have a picture of an adorable puppy;

Spoiler

Now lets have some logical discussion on the Delphine/Miner claim.

If mafia have oracle, they're absolutely always claiming it D1; they're never not claiming at all. If the scum team is a composition like Owner/Koalas/Delphine/Miner/Rubicon or Owner/Koalas/Delphine/Miner/Waco they've up against a very strong town team, they also have very little kill power -- effectively nothing outside of Miners hunter shot. This means they're going to have a very uphill battle to win the game. Them making a decision to have whoever is the most town read inside the game claim oracle and attempt to save a partner / pull someone deep into the game with them is a very logic and optimal move to make. Delphine fits that exactly there and making the call at the end of pregame that they'll try and save Miner is a move that's objectively clever for scum to make.

At that point of time Owner hadn't garnered any suspicion onto her so there's no "But mafia wouldn't have claimed on Miner knowing that'll people just move to Owner", that's garbage logic that doesn't make any sense. Now lets talk about "claim time", if mafia have planned X to fake claim oracle and they've been fake breadcrumbing it, they kind of have to follow through on this, them not doing so is them losing Miner->Owner D1/D2 and admitting that scum have oracle as a role when no one claims it. So, logically Delphine claiming to have an oracle town clear on Miner is never a town tell if we're looking at the situation we know it's likely we're up against ie. Scum team consistent of little kill power, scum team having some of the 'weaker' players. If anything the sheer odds of the oracle clear being on the person that was run up D1 is more likely to make sense if they're mafia rather than it just happening to be on the person that was getting mslynched as town and I'm very aware of the ironic nature of this point given the haunted guilty / Cobalt having a watcherman innocent on me, that doesn't negate it logically though.

Now lets move on to the Koalas vesting / refusing to vest Delphine situation; this is something that actually points rather strongly towards them being mafia here. Koalas!Mafia can't vest Delphine!Mafia because she's not an oracle in like 90% of the worlds where she's scum, if he vests her and she's not the oracle role upon lynch/shot etc. she becomes confirmed mafia since she just well..dies instead of "loses the vest" which means that she also confirms Miner as mafia upon doing this. There's a lot of reason for him to refuse to vest a partner there, and then jump on the opportunity to vest Mafia!Miner who would actually be a hunter.

So a) The claim / breadcrumb isn't a town tell like we were assessing it as earlier at all and people need to step back, look at this logically and realise this and b) Koalas's actions and interactions in regards to vesting actually makes them more likely mafia, not less.

So please consider both points when reading the case below. Also have another dog photo.

Spoiler

Lets talk about Delphine/Miner solely based on play this game / interactions with flipped scum.

I still find Miners early interactions and response towards pressure as something that makes more sense as mafia, I similarly find the sheer lack of content inside his initial ~50 posts or so to be a rather large scum tell as well as his attempt to use a meta defence of he never states reads inside the early game which is patently untrue as both Rubicon and I pointed out. His first real read inside the game is a scum read on Jarizok in #837 for "Disliking his stances" and comes across as a very shallow read and one that's particularly concerning given he's claimed he's not up to date in the thread at the time therefore 'disagreeing with stances' shouldn't lead towards a scum read.

I also see a lack of a) Concern from him about the wagon on him which makes sense if he's scum knowing that Delphine will be fake-clearing him and b) Lack of "reads/thoughts" left behind from him there, it doesn't read like a townie about to be mslynched at all. His reaction towards the claim inside #1093 lacked any real sort of...emotion that'd you'd expect from a townie that's been spared from being mslynched and the reads that he throws out there are equally as shallow as his Jarizok one earlier.

Spoiler

The above Koalas/Miner interaction...just screams partners, it's the most Miner interacts with anyone during the game pretty much, same goes for Koalas and the progression behind the whole thing just feels like scum theatre, it's brought above by a fairly tame/small comment and just...escalates in a natural that doesn't read genuine at all.

Spoiler

The above posts all read as massively scummy, like the first one reads like scum that know I was haunt-guiltied trying to keep my lynch on the table, the second line inside the second post..just feels like TMI and the third post was just all sorts of gross. Like if you go through Miners ISO and look for "Genuine scumhunting"..it's just not there at all? Like he's not stating many reads, not outing real reasoning behind his thoughts and is just coasting by, his activity has been continuously low throughout the entirety of the game, his fluff/content ratio is completely out of wack.

I wanted to go through Delphine and post my thoughts/read there too but it's just getting ridiculously late so this may have to wait until tomorrow to be finalised, consider this part #1.

---------- Post automerged at 09:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:15 AM ----------

Also wanted to get around to responding to a few peoples posts / questions too, blah this'll all have to wait until tomorrow to be finished but I really want people actually taking the time to read these posts and hashing them out with me.

 

I got a couple things I gotta take care of but I promise I will address your wall at some point today.

 

I read the whole thing in my ~10 minutes of free time before work, would have preferred snakes to dogs.

I'll try to address it in a couple hours, or failing that, closer to deadline.

 

Okay.

I'm in the unique position of knowing for a fact that Kalas nursed town!miner for ??? reason and that it's incredibly pro-mafia for me/miner to get run up against a Gravedigger/Apprentice combo that I do not trust.

That being said I do not really disagree with your starting premises. Kalas/fonti and Kalas/Kai do not feel real for the reasons previously stated. And I really struggle with seeing Vira and Vaimes (in that order) as mafia regardless of the world.

I moreso believe the world in which Kalas's nursing was actively designed to shade me/miner - considering that he refused to actually advocate for any other strategy, and as a hail-mary giving miner an extra life is a better play than giving one to the town oracle for exactly what's currently happening - than I believe the world in which it's Jari/fonti but I am trying to work through both today.

I've been looking forward to this series of posts because if I really believe you that every other world besides the lol-PoE world is so astronomically unlikely that this one seems actually seems likely, then I can breathe easier.

I frankly think it's more likely than not that scum in whatever composition are underreacting to The Plan with the eventual hope that town eats itself later.

I mean. The mafia team didn't fucking roll oracle? Is honestly the main thing here. It would be a different game if they did.

Your first sentence also contradicts most of your prior thoughts about an oracle claim: that it's pro-town for Oracle to claim D1 as opposed to later in the game and that "just holding the claim as mafia getting universally town read and stating a clear on a partner in a better position D2 with the intention of going deep and endgaming is more likely what [I'd] do." Only if you are actually operating from the incorrect premise that Owner/Kalas/me/miner is a thing are you arguing with conviction that mafia has to claim D1, and I don't frankly know if just trying to go a Last Stand route in that scenario would be higher +EV because that's not this game.

If you look at it from the perspective of "does miner and did the scumteam know that miner can be cleared," the answer to that question is no, and it's out there. As you continue through this post you are projecting what your emotions would be if you were in a similar situation, which would never actually be the case in the first place because you do not as either alignment blatantly fluff around and not really try to play the game even when thread consensus is that if you'd just actually try you'd not be dead to rights.

I would argue that I don't just disintegrate into a sad puddle if I've been gearing up to intentionally tie myself to a partner/make no attempt to change the narrative if I'm mafia. I have not been coasting off of being townread, I've been confused and frozen in a way that's absolutely alignment indicative for me. I would argue that miner NEVER plays like that if he has TMI that this game is not just him being busy af and brazenly being himself against a world of scum and idiots that think they can read him.

 

loljarizok

Just because kai is unlikely to win here as a witch doesn't mean we stop trying to read him, that kind of complacency can lead to a stupid loss. Also there was a lot of pressure on koalas to vest one of delphine/miner and if he had vested anyone else that would have outed both koalas and whoever he vested as a witch. It could be argued that delphine was the better target for koalas since she's less dangerous to the witches than miner so him agreeing to vest miner instead is slightly confusing but wine.

K.

Not wrong here but that point also doesn't make delphine a witch in and of itself.

This is gambler's fallacy, Cobalt got a peek on a haunted priest check. Both the priest and acolyte were both people in everyone's suspect list. Delphine's oracle check being on the lead wagon does not in anyway make delphine more likely to be a witch.

Mentioned that a few paragraphs ago, this is probably the biggest thing in your favor.

The real truth here is somewhere in between I think. Miner doesn't struck me as the overly analytical type in any of the games I read and even in a the village games I read he said more but they were veiled behind jokes so it's hard to say how seriously you should be taking that. I don't think you can condemn him for that.

Yeah and wanting to take your time to read miner correctly and suggesting people shouldn't pile on him shouldn't lead to a wolf read either but lolWH, villagers can make bad reads too. I don't think it's a good read miner made considering it was unclear how much miner had actually read at the time but I'm gonna need more than this.

Funny thing about that post is it kinda looks like rule of 3 at the end of it.

This actually doesn't read that w/w to me. It reads like miner trying to make a lazy read (albeit a correct one) and then getting scared off it when koalas tries to argue it. Could easily be miner didn't feel strong enough to argue it and didn't want to deal with how snappy koalas was.

Yeah those posts arn't good and yeah it is quite probable miner would still be under the microscope if delphine hadn't claimed an oracle check on him. I was kinda getting the vibe miner is a lazy player regardless of alignment but I honestly can't really defend miner's play it all hinges on delphine being a villager which is something I do feel strongly about so I'll wait for part 2 cuz that's probably where we're gonna have more to talk about.

 

Jarizok - can you go into your thoughts surrounding Rubicon at this point? Am curious to know why he's fallen off your radar.

 

regfan, many parts of your case can be summarized as "if Delphine is a witch, this play makes sense" which I will grant you. You also argue that (1) Koalas resisted giving her the vest, (2) Miner has been ridiculously scummy, (3) Koalas/Miner interactions were suspicious.

I don't think much of that is controversial, but you haven't included a compelling reason to scumread Delphine. Maybe you just haven't gotten to that part yet.

One thing I do agree on: It's an extraordinary coincidence that both Oracle and Watcherman were on the D1 lynch and the N1 red-check, respectively. However, I would argue the second pair (you and Cobalt) is much more likely to be a witch copycat of the first than the other way around, every time.

---------- Post automerged at 12:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:25 PM ----------

Can you explain why you care less about my flip than Waco's?

 

This game was suboptimal effort levels from me at best.

But like, if we want to discuss the "lack of care" of getting lynched d1...

I was carefree d1 because I know I'm town, and that town can afford my mislynch. I understand that in order for town to win the game, I would always be in the PoE simply because people couldn't believe the way I reacted to Newcomb early pre-game as anything but scum.

I don't think that that assessment was wrong. I tried to argue meta and other reasons to try and explain that my reaction wasn't really scummy, but since clearly it didn't get across, I kind of just adopted a "well, if you're going to mislynch me, I might as well accept that and maybe poke around the thread when I have a little more time" (early d1 was busy for me).

I had absolutely no idea that Delphine would clear me. I'm actually still surprised that RNG worked out as well as it did here.

Also, I wanna ask people like fonti, Fable, Vira, etc.

What happens in F3 or F4 if both Reg and I are alive?

 

I've considered the scum!delphine world and returned more convinced that she is town.

 

Are you more sure that Cobalt is town here than that Fluff was town in Stardew?

---------- Post automerged at 01:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:22 PM ----------

Like, at this point I feel like I'm just stumbling around this game hoping to get carried.

But the last time I had a dream someone was mafia they actually were.

 

Same honestly.

---------- Post automerged at 04:26 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:24 PM ----------

Oh shit

I hadn't considered something.

Wouldn't witch Kai just blow up Fluff instead of wasting the NK popping his vest?

They were only down one at the time of the claims, right?

 

It runs into the same "unless he's with Newcomb" issue.

 

I take my computer and throw it out the window. But actually I'm not worried about that being a thing in all honestly.

 

Because the leeroy lynch only goes through one life.

Delphine, yes, I think so.

 

Fluff had one life before Atum was lynched tho.

 

Fluff wasn't vested yet.