Could scum really risk going down 3 just for a priest kill when fluff had just checked a haunted target?

 

Good point.

---------- Post automerged at 05:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:39 PM ----------

Plus, that would clear atum.

 

???

You both need to die but wacos flip helps me figure out the rest of the game while yours doesn't.

--

I don't have words for people who think I just let atum happen as a witch, I just want to know if was anyone actually reading posts yesterday?

 

Fuck phone posting.

Be specific, name names here because this type of statement is a vague cop out.

The first two paragraphs re; how the claims went down /mostly/ isn't me explaining my scum read, it's more explaining how the world I'm looking at makes sense logically and explaining how the claim/breadcrumbing isn't the town tell others and myself read it as. If mafia have Oracle they decide who is claiming it on who at the very end of pregame, this becomes a decision that can't really be 'changed' nor should it afterwards. If the scum team has a strong scum player claiming it on them and trying to go deep is optimal... But that's not a possibility here with what I'm looking at. And the "Would have gone for last stand" is a stance I don't buy, scum can't afford to confirm Oracle to be in scums hands lose owner->Miner d1/d2 against a strong town lineup with all the KP and clears jn acolyte/priest/reports.

I wanted to go into the first paragraph tonight so I'll just touch on it now; I think both Waco and Rubicons stances on Miner D1 would make plenty of sense with you guys and them knowing there's a high chance the Miner wagon won't go through. I also think it does seem into Miners posts. I'll go into the second paragraph when I go into my read on you tonight.

 

Reg, consider Delphine's position at the time of her claim. I had been calling Miner 90% mafia, and most of the game was on board. I'm also know for my bull headedness. There was a very real possibility that when she claimed I would immediately jump down her throat. I cannot see scum Delphine ever taking that risk.

 

Yes, that is the part I'm asking you about. Why does Waco's flip help you while mine does not?

 

Fable - 1) Either have a genuine world where Kai is mafia here and beats us or at least put him aside for today; he gets killed mechanically here. And if you want my read ignoring any sort of Koalas logic on him..its still town. 2) You're not wrong in that the explanation behind the Delphine claim =/= her having to be scum but it's more a "Lots of the reasons people are ruling her out are invalid". 3) It's not gamblers fallacy at all, I don't think me being haunt guilties and watchermaned has any relevance to the odds of Delphine's legitimacy. My argument is the odds of town Oracle having the mslynch target is 1/17? whereas the odds of mafia doing that are like 4/17? 4) I don't consider Miner the most analytical player but I absolutely consider him as someone that attempts to gamesolve as town which I'm just not seeing here, this feels like him trying to coast and avoid being noticed. 5) noticed the rule of 3 thing too and if Rubicon I'd his partner he's lol done it twice in the same post.

But happy to talk more in ~13 hours when I post my Delphine read.

---------- Post automerged at 05:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:21 PM ----------

I very much... Disagree?

Scum win in owner/koalas/Miner/Delphine + 1 of Waco/Rubicon worlds how? Having the most town read player claim Oracle is pretty standard logical scum play which is always Delphine in that scum team. That team has no KP outside of Miner too, there's plenty of reasons to make that play as mafia. And sure you can make the argument "Delphine wouldn't be that brazen' but we are talking about a scum team of 5 with daytalk there, it's not something you can discount. And I'd you look at the timing of Owner moving off Miner the world where they decide Delphine claims to have Miner makes so much sense.

 

No, it doesn't. They'd want owner to move off afterwards. And the miner/kalas argument was not partnery at all.

More importantly, in the world you're talking about, they win by Delphine making it to late game, not by tying herself to Miner's sinking ship. And, most importantly, Delphine, on a personal level, would not feel comportant claiming to protect a partner thete.

 

fontisian, the obvious thought is that Owner would look better not being on Miner when he's cleared.

I think you're not considering the sheer amount of things Delphine would be up against if the call was for her to solo it from D1 - watcher man/priest/acolyte, KP on DOB, assassin and leeroy, it's just not a call the scum team make there. I also think you're just overall wrong on what scum/Delphine would/wouldn't do with daytalk.

Look if you don't agree with me after I post my Delphine read there's not a lot more I can do other than hope it's just Rubicon/Waco/Jari and just accept that it's not on me if we lose

 

@Regfam

Yeah actually it isn't actually gambler's fallacy my bad on that but at the same time just because something is unlikely does not make it impossible and I don't see it as a valid reason to suspect delphine. You could make the same argument that people suspected fluff yet he was priest and I was able to clear him. It was convenient yes but it's what happened all the same.

---------- Post automerged at 07:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:00 PM ----------

lol...

Regfan

 

Hey guys, I have important news for you all. You see, you all thought that you were playing Day 3 in Witch Hunt 8, but in reality you're all playing

The Kai Show!

Where it is not you, but me, who picks out who is getting lynched today.

Our contestants for today are Vaimes, Fontisian, Delphien and Cobalt.

Godspeed and good luck everybody!

---------- Post automerged at 09:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:18 AM ----------

I ruined such a great post with a typo

 

Fable - Certainly doesn't make it impossible, just another thing that makes /more/ sense of they're mafia.

KaiDASH - Please no dude, Fontisian, Vaimes and Cobalt are town and we are no better off with you leeroy killing Delphine then just lynching her. If you leeroy here while we both know it's the suboptimal move I'm just going to have to think you're scum doing it. So please man, relax.

 

I don't think you're going to get there.

I'm also pretty concerned that Miner is going going to shoot me tonight, which is a waste of two kills.

 

Interesting choices.

 

And too easy for him to justify if he's scum.

fluff, I'm not going to choose someone who's going to get lynched this game regardless.

 

Miner shooting you would be a scum claim.

Please Kai, don't suicide. It's never the answer.

 

I didn't think we'd be having this kind of chat in a game

:glitter

 

Not sure if kai is claiming witch or is just mental.

 

Are you really still pushing this TMI thing with vaimes? Vaimes is town, man.