What even is happening?

 

idk Kai is gonna slam someone who's not in our PoE for no reason

shrugs

I give up. if it's me, just don't lose afterwards.

 

Exhibit A.

 

Trust your manstincts.

 

Today I walked 9000 steps and I have 9000 less shits to give.

What is going on.

 

Everyone went insane for w/e reason, I don't really care cuz I got cheetos but you might wanna fix it.

Oh also jar and waco have stopped existing so they're probably witches.

 

What's the functional difference between Kai going off today vs. tomorrow?

 

Someone's gonna be way quieter tomorrow if kai goes off today?

 

Miner /10chars

 

Regfan

What did you think about my post looking at Koalas/Waco as potential partners in a Delphine/Miner world?

---------- Post automerged at 10:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:33 PM ----------

I'm also going to reiterate my D2 point that at least one of Jarizok/Waco are not town here.

 

Please don't make a bad move purely out of frustration with people like Cobalt. You know as well as I do today isn't the leeroy day.

Re; Stopped posting this isn't untrue and I think it looks worse from Waco than Jari, I think there's a reasonable chance Waco is scum regardless of which world we are in and I'd people refuse to see the light about Delphine/Miner lynching Waco and having Rubicon shot pretty much always kills a wolf.

Information available to make the optimal decision, lynching elsewhere (you/Waco) and having the Gravedigger out the report tomorrow gives us set worlds to look inside and make the decision based on.

---------- Post automerged at 12:38 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:36 AM ----------
Newcomb - I've already made a big post explaining why I think Koalas/Waco are probably w/w here. I'll look at your post when I'm not on a phone; outside of my one wall last night everything else has been phone posting which is so painful.

 

I think everyone is aware of the overall situation. We've talked about the potential worlds over and over and over and everyone kinda gets what's possible and not possible, right?

Like, except for Jarizok and his lolFable worlds but who cares.

Fable and Fluff confirmed town.

And then various people have varying degrees of certainty in the Delphine/Miner and Cobalt/Reg pairs. Reg's hitting the first one, hard. And Kai's tinfoiling a world where Cobalt is a witch but claimed a clear on town!Reg.

But aside from that, people aren't seriously considering anything outside the PoE.

I kind of hate that we're framing it as "willing to lose to X," but given the sheer... weirdness, I guess, of this game, I suppose it makes sense.

Kai being the witch!Leeroy here and being still alive would pretty much have to be.... what, exactly. If he was going to out and Leeroy, it would have happened. If he were waiting for a good time and try to go down while leaving open the possibility that he were town, that strictly implies town!Koalas, and probably 2+ in the clears, and yeah.

At this point outside of the clears I'm basically ride or die with Reg; I don't really want to get into what exactly hard set me on that (again, it's a combination of good and bad reasons) but that's what's happening.

---------- Post automerged at 10:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:42 PM ----------

I think it's very possible Koalas/Waco are w/w, I just think it's pretty unlikely they're w/w with Delphine.

Like, my basic point is this -

If that's the team - those 4, plus one - they had the plan, fairly early, to clear Miner. And to use Delphine's towncred to do it.

Why in the name of god, do Koalas/Waco, who were being read fairly null (Koalas) to mildly town (Waco) by most people (though not me), try to undermine Delphine's cred by pushing on her? By taking those shots at her? I pointed out both of them casting shade at her, in non-trivial ways.

---------- Post automerged at 10:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:46 PM ----------

Jan/Atum - Owner/Koalas

Assuming v/v and w/w, respectively, if we mislynch Angels can potentially put a save on Fluff here, yeah?

Whereas if we hit a witch with this lynch Fluff dies always?

Hmmm.

 

So... theoretically, if Kai is town, it makes the most sense for him to leeroy someone out of the PoE here, yeah?

Because if that person winds up villa, we get a Fluff save. Witch, or if Kai is a witch, and Fluff dies.

That way it's a soft flip even if Jarizok has been lying this whole time.

---------- Post automerged at 02:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:46 AM ----------

I'm... slowly losing conviction in my Kai is scum theory.

I just. I tend to overthink things, and fixate on specific incidents as hard-indicative when I really should just slow myself down and look at the bigger picture. If Kai was a witch and was getting run up like that, there's no reason why he wouldn't have just shot and not let us keep talking.

And the whole Fluff thing. Only down one, I don't see any reason for a witch team not to send a leeroy after the priest in earlygame. 1 for 1, and no investigations to deal with.

So I mean... I guess I'll put him on the townier end of the spectrum for now. But if he IS town, he really needs to cooperate with us on his target, because I think it absolutely is best that he fires this phase.

 

Incorrect it's never optimal for Kai to leeroy here.

If he ever trades 1-1 then Fluff dies. If he goes 0-2 we are in a worse position then just mslynching and 2-0 is never happening. Also he's town.

 

Is anybody else awake at this ungodly hour? Newcomb ? Vaimes ? Regfan ? Fable ?

 

If he goes 0-2, Fluff lives though. And then we have hard-flips on both Kai and his target and that's a lot more reliable than Jarizok imo.

---------- Post automerged at 02:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:49 AM ----------

If we don't go with a leeroy today then I'm okay knocking out Waco because the way he just hasn't fucking been involved in literally anything at all pings the fuck out of me.

 

If we mslynch Fluff lives, why have two people die for it when one suffices? And IMO Kais literally just always town here. If he has to fire we make him fire where we know more information and have definitive worlds ie. Not today.

 

Lynch: Waco

---------- Post automerged at 02:52 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:50 AM ----------

So wait, are we reasonably sure Jarizok is town because of the PT situation or is that NAI?

 

PT means nothing for Jaris alignment, we are better of always killing Rubicon/Waco before him though, or at the very least Waco.

 

I currently have my ability set to only go off if we no lynch or lynch me at the end of day.

I think if we are going to test delphine or cobalt that tonight is the best night to do so due to the constraints on the witch nk.