Lynch Delphine -> Hunter shoot Waco is still the optimal course in my eyes but if I'm being even remotely honest with myself I'm not getting 8 votes on Delphine here so settling with Lynch Waco -> Hunter shoot Rubicon is the only other decent way to proceed. I just hope people realise LYLo against Miner/Delphine is with 8 left alive.

 

Reg

I'm gonna really need you to listen to me for a minute

I really, really, really, really don't think it's Miner/Delphine.

Dwelling on it is wasting our time.

---------- Post automerged at 03:02 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:00 AM ----------

KaiDASH

What is this testing you're referring to?

 

Lynching you to test your alignment

 

And I'm going to need you to sell this to me and back it up with more then "I'm reading her town", like of you think I'm wrong logic and reasoning are the ways to go about it.

Its heavily weakened by Fonti blowing her load on PTing yesterday because if she/Jari check Delphine alignment after we lynch her Miner becomes either confirmed mafia or confirmed town with a vest, both big wins and information we would not be able to get again this game. With us relying on just Jari if he claims town on Delphine then Miner still becomes clear since its never Delphine/Miner/Jari but if he claims mafia we have to decide to words a) it's Delphine/Miner+1 or b) Jari+2. The information is still objectively useful since it rules out lots of teams in general but no longer a " no brainier " of a move unless you think they're mafia..which I do.

---------- Post automerged at 02:26 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:17 AM ----------

Like with a "ride or die" pool as large as Fluff/Fable/Fontisians/Kai/Vaimes/Vira/Cobalt and two dead scum this game shouldn't really be loseable and get I think we have a very realistic chance of losing. It's just irritating when I'm pretty certain there's a path to victory thats logical and pretty reliable.

---------- Post automerged at 02:38 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:26 AM ----------

But whatever let's do it this way then;

14 Alive
Lynch Waco, hunter shoot Rubicon, Mafia night kill.

11 Alive
Either just lynch Jarizok or have Kak leeroy him, Mafia night kill him

8 or 9 alive
If the games not over by here and Newcombs not conceded due to being in an unwinnable position then people better start fucking joining me on Delphine/Miner

---------- Post automerged at 02:43 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:38 AM ----------

Like if people are willing to promise me votes on Delphine/Miner at 8 alive if I still think they're mafia I'll just shut up and vote with the plan for the next few days. And to make clear what I'm saying, if the following players are all dead and the games not over I want your votes;

Rubicon
Jarizok
Waco
Kai
Newcomb

---------- Post automerged at 02:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:43 AM ----------

(Newcomb wouldn't actually be dead but when he's the only mafia left he can't win the game since our lastynch is always spent on him)

 

(Please never kill Delphine or Cobalt. Pleeeassse.)

 

If killing through Rubicon/Waco/Jarizok doesn't win us the game I really need you to drop your town read on Delphine and reassess there because I'm literally down to these scum teams being possible and that's it;

Delphine/Miner/Rubicon
Delphine/Miner/Waco
Rubicon/Waco/Jarizok
Jarizok/Waco/Newcomb
Jarizok/Rubicon/Newcomb
Kai/Newcomb/Jarizok
Kai/Newcomb/Rubicon

Considering I think Newcomb and Kai are town here we're really only looking at Delphine/Miner/Rubcion, Delphine/Miner/Waco & Rubcion/Waco/Jarizok, by having all 5 names that I listed in my above post die and the game not ending it means that it's almost certainly Delphine/Miner being scum. Don't really have time at all tonight to get to anything, may try and phone post on my way to work tomorrow & check in if I need to move my vote but my preference right now is Waco > Rubicon lynch wise.

---------- Post automerged at 07:02 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:00 AM ----------

Miner should pretty obviously be shooting whoever of those two we don't lynch. I'm pretty much willing to consider a shot elsewhere from him an outright scum claim, particularly worried that he's setting up to shoot Jarizok here to hide the gravedigger reveal and claim he did it due to scum reading Jari earlier; having Jarizok reveal the alignment is pretty imperative regardless of Jaris actual alignment here, especially since it'll probably be our last 'hard information' we get this game.

---------- Post automerged at 07:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:02 AM ----------

Also Fables not wrong in that it feels like Wacos...checked out almost entirely here.

 

Actually my question before if witches would have preferred to lynch atum or witch!rubicon is dumb cuz they almost certainly chose to lynch atum in that spot unless the team is exactly rubicon/delphine/miner (don't get excited Reg I still don't think it is) which tbh I feel like that kinda psuedo-rubicon as a witch since why go with the lynch that's obviously worse for you but it also wouldn't be the first time the witches did a -EV thing so meh.

VC at EoD d2:

Atum [8] - Reg, Cobalt, Jari, Newcomb, Kai, Font, Waco, Rubicon
Rubicon [6] - Vaimes, Vira, Miner, Fable, Delphine, Fluffiness
Jari [1] - Atum.

---------- Post automerged at 08:20 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:19 AM ----------

*psuedo-confirms

 

On more thought I can even remove both of these from my pool of possibilities since imo Jarizok never attempts to get Kai to Leeroy today if they're partners especially with Newcomb because then Jari turns into a position of "If I get lynched, it's autoloss" and with him being a) Heavily in the lynch pool and b) An inevitable lynch as Gravedigger alone it's just never a world. Can also remove Newcomb/Rubicon/Kai I think based on Kai/Rubicon being non-aligned.

So I'd say I'm down to just;

Delphine/Miner/Rubicon
Delphine/Miner/Waco
Rubicon/Waco/Jarizok
Jarizok/Waco/Newcomb
Jarizok/Rubicon/Newcomb

As possibilities that still exist. And with that, bed.

 

Actually wait that rubicon/delphine/miner team doesn't even make sense with this VC so wtf am I talking about it would be delphine/miner/and one of the atum voters.

 

Actually I'll respond to this before bed.

Not a world, Fontisian doesn't create a plan that involves all 3 of them dying like she did.

Not implausible given the amount they've dropped off.

A very amusing thought but I'd consider it pretty unlikely.

This involves so many things that just...don't feel right. Like if this is the case why doesn't Koalas vest Kai, have Kai kill a bunch of people and bring endgame about faster so Vira/Cobalt can win. Why does this scum team have me haunted and then claim watcherman to clear me. Just not a world.

Would be hilarious, but no, Jans not the type to self-kill.

 

I just woke up so don't judge me for being slow. >.>

 

Their stance and vote count yesterday is one of the reasons I think Miner/Delphine/Rubicon makes so much sense. So, with the Delphine/Miner situation LYLO against them is F8 in comparison to like F6 like most other people, in this world Jarizok is a town gravedigger, bussing Rubicon means that a) If he actually gets lynched there they get to F8 and win the game almost every time, b) If he doesn't get lynched people consider them 'unlikely partners' and c) Allows them a chance at Fluff not getting a vest since the most likely way they lose the game is via an investigation.

 

Feel like they would have pushed rubicon much harder than that and you wouldn't have seen rubicon putz about offwagon if that were the plan, also I don't think lolminer tries to shade me over getting mad and voting atum for a brief period like he did when the day started either.

---------- Post automerged at 08:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:38 AM ----------

Any reason waco/rubicon/newcomb can't be a thing?

---------- Post automerged at 09:19 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:45 AM ----------

There are so many pointless lolbussing votes here in a rubicon/miner/delphine world like why not get on owner for the cred rather than spread them around the entire wolf team? I'm just not seeing it.

---------- Post automerged at 10:07 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:19 AM ----------

Yeah after thinking about it, Vote:Waco and having miner kill rubicon is the best play here.

 

Well. I'm voting Waco, I don't have a problem with Miner shooting Rubicon, and that means I'd pretty much just concede tomorrow if that were the team, and if that were the case I'd be so salty I'd have stopped posting a long time ago, so.

WIFOM blah blah since I'm the one bringing it up, but I'd have just grabbed onto Reg's Delphine/Miner thing like a lifeboat, rather than trying to actually gauge it myself and talk with him about it

 

Fair enough I suppose, just trying to find the third in waco/rubicon/???. Thinking about it I don't think it's jar unless he was TMIing really hard about witches piling onto me d1. Actually a little stuck Tbh.

 

Same.

It's kind of...

Like, I'm not going to argue with the way Delphine claimed, assuming she's legit, or how you/Cobalt handled their info, assuming Cobalt's legit, but just. Fluff checking Reg was bad, outing it like that was bad, there's no reason not to mass claim after that, and it's day fucking /three/ and we have these extremely rigid worlds, to the point where we're honestly talking about who we'd lose to right now after lynching mafia D1 and shooting another D2.

????

It's super frustrating. This isn't how WitchHunt is supposed to go.

Having these super defined yet also super disparate worlds just kills the ability to organically, gradually re-evaluate and strengthen / weaken reads.

Not exactly game-relevant, more for post, but like.

Yeah it's just Rubi/Waco/Jarizok except that doesn't... quite.... work.

But the problems with Delphine/Miner have been brought up, by me and others, it doesn't seem likely to me.

Reg just seems town, making Cobalt town.

Kai is kind of mechanically town.

"Stuck" is kind of a decent way to put it.

Off to work, back tonight.

 

There is a very specific jar/waco/vaimes/??? world where koalas was a villager that I don't really wanna think about.

 

I mean, the starting place there has to be Jari/fonti since she confirmed Kalas was mafia.

 

Jari/Waco/fonti/Vaimes is. ?

I mean holy god that fonti/Vaimes interaction at the beginning of the game would just be. Kind of magical.

 

Lmao, that CLEAN AS FUCK Rubicon wagon though.

Honestly if we just lynch down the Atum wagon and don't win I'll be quite surprised.

---------- Post automerged at 12:30 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:29 PM ----------

Yeah I kind of just realized that the only way Koalas is not scum is if the team is exactly Jari / Fonti.

But I'm not gonna tinfoil that hard.

---------- Post automerged at 12:30 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:30 PM ----------

I DIRELY wish that Jarizok was investigated instead of Fonti.