So, Fluff dying confirms that Demons were at least at parity with Angels last night.

If we live in witch!owner, witch!Koalas, town!Jan, town!Atum worlds, that would confirm Rubicon as a hit - if he were town, Angels were at 3 - 2 last night and could have put a save on Fluff (which they'd always do, I think?)

I think those 4 are pretty certain? Jan > Owner > Koalas > Atum in tiers of certainty.

If any of those are wrong, Jarizok becomes confirmed mafia (unless the one that's wrong is Jan, but lol no.)

But if they are wrong, they have to be wrong in a way that still gives us at least 3 hits. Which is, hm, kinda tough. Like, town Koalas, witch Atum or something?

Nothing that looks very plausible to me, though.

 

Vote Jarizok

 

Combination of things.

1) The almost embarrassed waffling on Vaimes on D1 I don't think really makes sense from witch!Reg in either town!Vaimes or witch!Vaimes worlds. (If Vaimes is town, fighting that townread from him when he's thread consensus makes Reg look bad, if Vaimes is a witch, he'd just accept the read with glee.)

2) The post he made to me in 2719, which is kind of a tonal thing to me specifically, but contains some elements I'm not super comfortable airing out in the thread. Short version, there are some things he'd be having to fake in that post that I just reeeeeeeally don't think he's gross enough to use on me as a witch. Like, if he made 2719 to me as a witch, I'm just flat-out wrong of my assessment of him as a player.

3) The frustration / sheer work he did trying to wrench Delphine/Miner back into the PoE. I believe he believes it. And since, like. Cobalt/Reg is pretty strictly opposed to the "lots of mafia in Koalas/Rubicon/Jarizok/Waco/Fonti/Kai" thing that's been the generally accepted PoE.... what's his plan here, as a witch? Why make the effort? Like, if it's Reg/Cobalt/Koalas/Owner/X then can't they just win by blowing up the PoE, which everyone seems to want to do?

 

Rubicon was almost certainly a hit, was confident of that even without Fluff dying there. His EOD post and thoughts were practically a scum claim, can go more into this when I'm at a computer. I'm uh, not really sure with Waco though a few lines in there read genuineish.

 

@Kai asking me that question makes it seem like you're scumreading Reg; if that's the case why did you say you'd Leeroy toDay onto a target Reg and I agreed on?

 

Almost certainly Owner/Koalas/Rubicon + 2

 

Yeah, that too.

Rubicon's EoD reads list was just pure anti-spew.

The real question is what making it in the first place instead of just going down says about Waco (in combination with Waco's EoD thoughts dump).

The permutations are a little WIFOM-y for me there.

---------- Post automerged at 07:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:47 PM ----------

Yeah, likely.

I think toDay we do really need to hash out Delphine/Miner.

Are you where you were yesterDay, still?

---------- Post automerged at 07:58 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:49 PM ----------
Regfan

if you're selling an Owner/Koalas/Rubicon/Delphine/Miner world, I'd like your analysis of Kobalt making these posts about his partners on D1 before Delphine claimed:

---------- Post automerged at 07:58 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:58 PM ----------

Koalas, Kobalt, same diff obviously.

 

I say a lot of things.

I've done reflection and of the two pairs I think cobalt / regfan is more likely to be scum than delphine / miner. I'm not super concerned about it necessarily, but I won't be around in endgame to actually act on things so I have to figure it out now.

-

Fluff dying confirms that angels were at parity on nights 2 and 3, and on night 2 the demons haunted fluff and a witch.

So we have at least 3 witches dead right now, one of which was Rubicon.

 

Would like to point out I was 2/2 on my witch reads d1 and yes the only point of this post is to brag.

I'll figure out the rest tomorrow after I sleep.

 

I, too, am satisfied with the way things are proceeding.

---------- Post automerged at 23:11 ---------- Previous post was at 23:09 ----------

Oh wait, Waco's dead now.

Last Stand might already be in play, actually. 'Cause aside from FoS'ing one of the townclear pairs, I dunno which two living people could conceivably be witches.

---------- Post automerged at 23:12 ---------- Previous post was at 23:11 ----------

w o w inb4 Jarizok lynch ends the game.

 

I can’t see anyone other than Owner / Kalas / Rubicon as scum. Scum!Atum giving his extra life to the Priest would be incredibly stupid. Kalas did the same thing, but at least Miner wasn’t the Priest.

 

But is Jarizok really the hit here if that world is correct and he's been nothing but truthful?

I think the silence says volumes but I'm not completely sold.

 

Who would you want to look into toDay, then?

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Like.

What living witch pairs aren't ridiculous?

It's never Kai/Newcomb. You aren't going to vote yourself or Reg. We already went over Delphine and Miner. I'm town. font is ???, far-off possibility but not at all my first choice.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Jarizok and Waco are/were the last ones.

 

What if Kai is still a potential witch? I'd feel safer having him blow up on Jarizok.

---------- Post automerged at 11:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:31 PM ----------

What I'm worried about is it being Newcomb and is not figuring it out til endgame and wasting time, honestly.

Or that I'm getting SPANKED by you or Vira.

---------- Post automerged at 11:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:32 PM ----------

*us not is

 

Do you think me or newcomb are ever winning in endgame?

Asking for a friend.

 

Yeah, that. That's a big one.

Thanks Kai.

 

Thanks Vaimes.

 

Pitch me a world where Jarizok/Rubicon used the utility of rolling GD and Apprentice like this. Because like...

 

Rubicon lied about being GD apprentice... obviously.

---------- Post automerged at 01:48 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:46 PM ----------

Granted, there's two alternatives to that:

1. Rubicon is town, scum team is exactly Owner, Kalas, Atum, Fonti, Jarizok.

2. Jarizok is town.

 

Maybe Jarizok will tell us what his real role was!