There's very strong logic that points against Koalas-Kai being a scum team, there's also fairly strong interactions about Rubicon-Newcomb not being partners; the way both of them were happy to have Rubicon lynched yesterday when they know they're both forced to die mechanically by end game pretty much always means as scum they're playing how to win how ??? And it's not like "They've not been here and are just waiting for the loss as scum" they've actively put themselves into this situation which just means this team is never the case. There's also the fact that I've got a very strong town read on Newcomb from his play throughout the game the game that I can explain if I really have to as well.

Newcomb - I did read it, I've actually got a like ~15 Koalas/Delphine interaction links and links about her play somewhere that I wanted to go into tomorrow, I'll touch on that then but quickly; in the Owner/Rubicon/Koalas/Delphine/Miner world Jarizok is a town Gravedigger which means all alignments posted inside the thread would be truthful, therefore there's motive for scum to distance from themselves D1 to hopefully have people read them as unaligned later on.

 

Wouldn't scum!Kai basically only be in a world with Newcomb, though, as that's a world he has to try to live in instead of doing the leeroy play.

 

Are we sure waco was a villager? In any case I'll look into two man teams later but everybody left as at least something good going for them.

Starting from square one the only one I'll crossout right away is vaimes, no way he just went and blasted his teammate like that. Ignoring the pairs what Kai pulled before possibly could have been theater I suppose, Vira would have to be the biggest busser of all time to be a witch here, Font I don't even know anymore but I think she's likely village between the peek and how rubicon talked about her. Besides Jar more than likely telling the truth about all the flips and owner pushing on him I don't know that I could think of why he's a villager besides that and I gave a read no newcomb earlier. Obviously if it's not delphine/miner I'm giving someone too much credit but I have no clue where. I'll dig through the thread in a bit.

 

Mechanically, yes. But practically I think you rule that out since Newcomb/Kai are competent enough players they wouldn't have let themselves get into a position like this and most certainly wouldn't have actively put themselves in this position. To top that off Kais been spending a lot of the day phase discussion him potentially Leeroying to get his "Last reads" out which is a pretty weird angle to play if that's the scum team. I also thought #722 was an awesome interaction that I don't think comes from partners. And again, Newcombs just town.

---------- Post automerged at 07:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:19 PM ----------

I went into worlds where Waco was also a hit in #3325 and you can always rule out every team other than the last being Jarizok or Vira very easily and comfortably here, we're beating Jarizok if he's alone anyway so it's just Vira that needs some consideration there.

 

722 was an awesome interaction.

I'm gonna have some time to dive into this tonight; will mainly focus on responding to Reg's large worlds posts. Think that's probably the best approach here as we can confirm 3+ witches dead at the moment.

 

I actually went back and looked....

Newcomb plz

---------- Post automerged at 09:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:07 PM ----------

This was during pregame when vira was racking up V reads very quickly. Probably looks good for her?

Not even out of pregame and I kinda wanna lock back in vira and Fonti as villagers and I have a strong feeling I'm just gonna end up where I already was with Jar>Newcomb>Kai as the PoE.

 

The fact that Reg isn't willing to consider worlds outside of Jari and Delphine/me right now just makes me feel like post Delphine's flip maybe it'd be a good idea to check the Cobalt/Reg duo.

 

Yeah, I just don't find an alternate world where I'm misreading two of Fontisian/Vira/Vaimes/Newcomb/Kai, the last three I'd bet a lot on being town and the last two die at some point anyway and both Fontisian & Vira feel town here. Like I think Rubicon would have been the scum haunt cleared and the instant post he made in the thread re; Fluffs prior reads did feel like it came straight from scum chat which I don't think he ever does if it's Fontisian/Rubicon scum team.

You're clearly not reading my posts even in the slightest; I started with every scum team inside the game, then started narrowing them down, was left with very few scum teams, was planning on rereading the game and seeing if they make sense.

 

Cobalt has a ton of non w/w interactions with Rubicon, same with Reg and Owner. Also pretty sure Reg said he'd consider Vira too so I'm not sure this is even accurate.

---------- Post automerged at 09:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:28 PM ----------

Out of curiosity would anyone consider the timing of delphine's claim odd? I'm use to seeing something like that happen the last 15-20 minutes of the day, does it make sense for delphine to claim with over 12 hours left?

 

The earlier you claim after the outcome seems final or at least very likely (Miner getting lynched) the better, as there is more time to assess and decide on a different course of action.

My view on claims of any sort immediately before day end is lynch them anyway and you deserve it.

 

I could probably stare at this for hours trying to figure out if this is a legit breadcrumb or just w/w.

---------- Post automerged at 09:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:41 PM ----------

Yeah that's fair and kinda the answer I expected.

---------- Post automerged at 09:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:44 PM ----------

Yeah I think the only worlds I can see if two witches left is jar/newcomb and delphine/miner so with that in mind would it be out of the question to lynch newcomb and ask him to kill delphine?

 

I have doubts that that's mechanically correct, but I'd be open to it, for kind of selfish reasons.

 

Newcomb is never dying til closer to endgame.

We're not getting fucked in a F4 situation where we can only pick one person to die to lynch and if we're wrong we lose.

 

Why I think fonti could be townsiding mafia:

I've previously mentioned that I disagreed with Jan's read that fonti has to be aligned with the gravedigger for the initial miner push. I did sheep the read for a while nonetheless, and I wish he stayed around long enough to talk to him about it.

This is the main thing that made me feel otherwise. I can't really articulate why but it made me worry that she knew he was town.

When I claimed, she was not the driving force behind the owner wagon. She did start up a Reg counterwagon ~for info~ to try to take control of the narrative. She doubtcasted him as unaligned with owner and cut into him for his reaction to my claim. I don't actually understand #witchstrats well enough to know if I really should feel that she never haunts Reg there, but considering she was the driving force behind attention being on Reg in the first place and the continued into D2 "wait so why should I think those two are unaligned", I don't value it enough.

Looking back at the Rubicon interactions that bothered me the most, this was one:

More partner indicative than not; reads like him pretending to give her space; gives me deja vu to a past fonti/Rubicon team that Rubicon weirdly enough linked in this thread earlier.

I wasn't clocking this when I said she wasn't hiding behind associative bs.

How I ended up writing this post is actually that I was reading ~this point looking at Vira<->Kalas interactions D2, and then Newcomb goes onto explain that he doesn't think Fonti/Rubicon/Kai is a thing because Fonti/Rubicon don't fit with Kai here:

But fonti/Rubicon distancing and Rubicon trying to dumpster Kai along with them...kinda does? More than anything else this game?

Like.

She brings up the lynch the whole PoE idea with the caveat that ~depending on the nightkills, we can change plans!~ which functions to (1) get her townread for proposing a plan in which she dies in a situation where in terms of independent play, she's just uh...more in her scumrange than the vast majority of people and thus probably NEEDS to be doing some yolo shit? (2) potentially get town to eat itself with paranoia without it being her fault.

She didn't fight as hard as she could have to save Atum, which is mafia-sided in the Owner/Kalas/Rubicon/fonti/X world in that scum already would have parity with Kalas dead even if town gets lynched. Plus she spent the end of that day trying to get Jari lynched to "test" Rubi ?

She was Queen "more votes on Rubicon" yesterday after spending a lot of the phase arguing that we should be trying to lynch town.

The main place where my thoughts fall apart is the Kalas<->fonti interactions EOD1, particularly on Kalas's end, but he did also push softly push Regfan for not mentioning Owner. And note that the whole reason she wanted to get him killed in the first place was actually blatantly to get herself towncred. And that, based on that, the use of her ability was based around confirming he was a hit. And that owner didn't fakeclaim anything, but it's not like I don't think Rubicon/Kalas wouldn't have suggested it to owner, either? Or literally anyone active in scumchat? It's just not important enough, I think, relative to what other people have done this game.

Her saying she never kills Jan n1 because he was never the acolyte thing was bullshit since scum isn't actually trying to shoot the acolyte. I suspect if she's scum she might've thought Fable was Jan's acolyte. /shrug

No fucking idea if she's with Waco or anyone else, but if I were to be shot in the face right now I guess this is my legacy. I think I have the least reason to townread fonti of anyone alive, priest checks be damned.

And Regfan, if you're on right now, do me the courtesy of giving me some goddamned space. Jesus.

---------- Post automerged at 08:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:56 PM ----------

vote: fontisian

"Woe to you, teachers of the law and Pharisees, you hypocrites! You are like whitewashed tombs, which look beautiful on the outside but on the inside are full of the bones of the dead and everything unclean." (Matthew 23:27)

 

Why Jari/Newcomb?

Then what do you make of Font saying she’ll take mercy on Kalas if he Nurses Miner, then voting Kalas when he does so? If she were scum, she could have pushed to save him, and if she wanted towncred, why bother with the extra life to Miner?

 

I mean, all I really had to do was look at the end of 3356

 

Process of elimination through rubicon interactions.

 

It was really townsided to be a proponent of me/miner +life, yes, I'm well aware. Think you literally said at the time though (unless I'm misremembering and it was someone else, but I agreed) that she was obviously gearing up to vote him regardless. Either because she's town or to look town.

That whole incident is very hard for me to parse still tbh. If I do get lynched I look forward to finding that out.

 

Kai did you follow up on your thinking here?

---------- Post automerged at 09:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:00 PM ----------
Regfan

Gonna dive into your two big worlds posts now. Segmented quoting is going to be easiest, I think.

That seems like a reasonable assumption to work from. To make the fact that Fluff died work with worlds that aren't those two, you have to start getting pretty deep into the tall grass. It makes worlds where we're getting super-snowed pretty impossible, since, again, Fluff not getting saved last night means we were at parity or more. So if you posit like, town!Koalas and fonti/Jari mafia, you have to say that ALSO Atum was mafia or Jan self shot and... yeah.

With you so far, with the caveat that I while I agree it's unlikely, I don't think it's out of range for Cobalt to treat you like he's done so far as a witch, particularly if his team was looking weak D1.

1c only loses fonti the game if we actually take her up on that and lynch her as part of the PoE. The Rubicon thing is more compelling.

Fonti's path to victory here is going limp and hoping people clear her for not leaving herself an out. Again, this doesn't seem very likely to me, but my overall impression of fonti this game is fairly lacking. I'd be... a bit surprised if she played it like this as mafia, but not /that/ surprised.

Agreed.

Jarizok/Rubicon just doesn't make sense to me because of how they played the fact that they rolled GD+Apprentice.

Agreed that Vira's like 99% just town here.

So in your Part I here, I'm with you on most of this, I just don't straight rule out the ones I mentioned. Don't see any of them as very likely, though.

 

I'm not sure I should go into this because it's scum coaching if they haven't thought of it, also depends on the world we're in.