I'll address and read into Delphines #3374 shortly.

Not the play, leaving Newcomb until F4/F3 increases the number of kills we get later in the game which is what we need, Newcomb also will just flat out have to concede when he's the final scum so going Delphine->Jarizok means that the Jarizok/Newcomb scum team is already dealt with since Newcomb is never not getting lynched this game.

I'm going to garcia this if you don't mind; I imagine that Kai was trying to get around to the fact that having Miner have on vest when Delphine is lynched means he gets less kills due to last stand etc. ie. Lynching Miner-> (1 NK) -> Delphine-> (2 NK) -> Miner means 3 night kills whereas going Delphine-> (2NK) -> Miner-> (2NK) -> Miner means 4 night kills, that said I think lynching Delphine and getting Jarizok to state her alignment is still the best way to proceed; if mafia ever enact last stand they clear Cobalt/Myself and remove lots of potential scum teams from the game so it's a non-issue.

You're probably right in that I'm giving Fontisian probably a little too much credit, I just think the tactic of her intentionally pushing lots of her partners, getting priest checked as innocent and then still suggesting and advocating a plan that involves her death is fairly unlikely. I also think the world where Cobalts scum here just involves too many funky things that don't make sense ie. Scum losing a member D1, haunting myself and then clearing them / linking me to them? Very hard to see happening, especially in the genuine nature that Cobalt did it. Add to that if I was a role that activates at night I'd confirm him as mafia and he'd always have to worry about the possibility of him getting lynched that day there. Not to mention I've got a pretty strong tonal town read on him here.

Anyway interested in your thoughts on part II when you get to it since I think that's more likely the world/situation we're in that part I right now.

 

1) IK is a thing.

2) Cobalt could have actually gotten you as a check regardless of his alignment.

Working on Part II now.

---------- Post automerged at 10:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:00 PM ----------

Part II

So if you play with the assumption that Delphine isn't mafia without Miner and that Cobalts not mafia unless I am (I think the odds of either of them fake claiming to save town is just....pretty much zero) and that Fables clear this is all teams of two that can exist;

Again, I wouldn't 100% write off Cobalt. Happy to completely write off w Delphine v Miner, but I'd put w Cobalt v Reg at maybe 10-15% here.

Like, I think I have a decent baseline for Cobalt's tonality as both alignments and this reminds me ~>rand of his towngame but he's not... reeeeeeeally solving solving.

I'm kinda with Kai on this one, vibing with the fact that Kai /could/ just blow Cobalt up here but not wanting to really do it since it doesn't seem likely, just not, like. Never a world.

Fine with this for the most part. Same caveat as above w/r/t fonti. Although I do agree that fonti/Jarizok is pushing it in the same way Rubicon/Jarizok is, but even /more/ so. Like.... that is really the best that team could come up with rolling GD/Apprentice/PT? Doubtful.

I think you're potentially reading too much into the fonti telling Kai to lynch her thing. Since like, she'd know he wasn't actually going to do it if that was the team.

Yeah, meh, okay. The Rubicon thing look really really really good and pure and everything but I have a little voice in my head telling me two things: 1) Rubicon is very good at partner interactions. 2) I was looking for something from Vaimes D3, something perhaps not quantifiable, and I didn't get it.

I get that RL is a thing, and it's at about 5-10% i.e. just outside the threshold of actually worrying about it, but... yeah. I've townread Vaimes more, is all I'll say.

Yep. Although this one's kind of easy, since, well. I'm town, and I'm just clearing Vira here.

Again, I'm just writing off Vira here, but on the off-chance it's her, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it were Vira/fonti.

Agree that Kai/Jarizok feels unlikely but there's nothing that hard rules it out. Just the fact that if that's the team their plan to win the game throughout really all of it has been ????

I think if Vira were attempting to push Jarizok, her partner, for cred / Last Stand activation, she'd do so in a more forceful way than a "he's dropping in post count" type argument.

 

To add to the Vaimes/Rubicon not w/w pile, I believe this tonally.

 

Can you think of a team of 2 that includes Cobalt here then for me to consider?

Fair, agree.

I mean you're not wrong in that if they're the scum team the whole "blow me up" thing can be faked, but I just have a bunch of interactions between them I don't see being W/W, I remember one in particular around the time where Fontisian brought up doing X plan and Kai had a pretty genuine response of "Hehe, I had already thought of that" which I just didn't see being partners interacting with each other. All up I feel pretty good ruling this out?

Ha, I amusingly think my town read on Vaimes is stronger than yours which is just bizarre given where we were earlier in the game, I think the type of thought process where he dislikes my idea but also agrees with it inside #2781 has continues scepticism of me inside #2785 and #2787 and his overall thoughts inside #2796 just feel very town here. I also just don't find a partner for him inside the game, like Fonti/Vaimes isn't at hing here, Kai/Vaimes also not a thing, Vira/Vaimes not a thing with how he's voting her and brought her back into the fold. Like maaaaybe Jari/Vaimes? But I'd be willing to bank the game on him being town here.

This is the team I think makes probably the most sense if Viras mafia.

There's also the fact that Kai was voting/pushing Jarizok D1, I stated a strong town read on Jarizok and then Kai attempts to kill that town read. Like this team just surely isn't a thing.

Fair. It's still not something I can hard rule out interaction wise though.

---------- Post automerged at 12:54 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:52 AM ----------
Newcomb - Can you put together in 1 post the list of teams you think are /possible/ at all?

---------- Post automerged at 12:57 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:54 AM ----------

Like if I'm looking at your thoughts you're at something like;

Waco + Jarizok
Waco + Vira
Waco + Fontisian
Delphine + Miner
Fontisian + Vira
Fontisian + Kai
Jarizok + Kai
Jarizok + Vira
Jarizok + Vaimes?
Cobalt + 1?

Am I correct with that?

---------- Post automerged at 01:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:57 AM ----------

I'd remove Waco/Fontisian, Fontisian/Kai, Jarizok/Kai, Jarizok/Vaimes and be left with;

Waco + Jarizok
Waco + Vira
Delphine + Miner
Fontisian + Vira
Jarizok + Vira
Cobalt + 1?

If you play with the assumption that Viras town here then it's always something like just Jarizok, Miner/Delphine or Cobalt+1 and I frankly think Cobalt+1 is pretty unlikely but I'm willing to hear specific worlds you think might be plausible there. I'm pretty much at there's always scum inside Jarizok/Delphine/Vira right now, I strongly town read Vira and I think if Jarizok is mafia alone we still beat him so lynching Delphine feels the move, the fact that I'm the only one voting her is kind of depressing.

 

It's a CFD meta and there's been soft agreement from most of the thread............

---------- Post automerged at 11:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:07 PM ----------

Which is why it's absolutely insane to me that "no one is jumping at the chance for this wagon therefore it's on mafia" is an argument being hammered on for literally days but ay.

I find Cobalt/fonti/Jari scummier than everyone else in this game by a large margin.

I am glad that my associative read that Reg/Cobalt/Jari weren't all scum seems to be legit.

I think I maybe should find Cobalt townier after the Rubicon flip because looking back I kinda feel like he may have been amused as hell that I found Cobalt-solo plausible and was trying to /barn it.

It is really hard to get my brain to go through every possible team even with 3+ scum locked. I will continue to try to over the course of this phase.

Vira defended Kalas after he +lifed miner which is kinda interesting but when I try to think of her as scum I feel like I'm reaching.

Did sorta have the fonti/Vira thought after her last interaction with me. I think I don't think fonti's with Jari?

 

lynch delphine

I don't really think this is a slam dunk and I'd be just as happy to check Cobalt here instead but that's not happening. Like my breakdown here is if one of the twopairs are scum, then it's maybe 55:45 delphine:cobalt.

We do need to check and I don't really think that any of Vira / Jarizok / Fonti / Newcomb / Vaimes are Witches so...

 

Generally not a fan of CFD's.

The bolded is the scum team I think I need to focus most on when rereading, I don't see Fontisian being scum here unless it's with exactly Vira and her plan was with the intention of having a few quick deaths creating an easy win for a partner that's both vested (Survivalist) and heavily town read, I could also kind of see the argument that he way she's treating today works if she's scum with Vira too. The thing is I don't read either Vira or Fontisian as scum via play, so it's a hard world to see due to that but it's one I'm willing to at least consider.

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Like, gun to my head, had to pick people I thought were town for certain I'd go with Fable/Newcomb/Kai/Vaimes/Cobalt being my hard town pool with no scum ever inside it. Would be pretty tempted to include Vira and to a slightly lesser degree Fontisian inside it too. But like if I'm working based on the 5 names inside that 'never ever mafia' list being town that leaves only the following words;

1 scum left; Vira, Fontisian, Jarizok
2 scum left; Vira/Fonti, Vira/Jari, Miner/Delphine

Inside there if I had to pick order of likelihood I'd go something like;

Miner/Delphine
[Gap]
Jarizok
[Large Gap]
Vira/Fonti
Vira/Jari
[Large Gap]
Vira
Fonti

 

So I have a few reasons for that and there's no point not to say them at this stage even though they're kind of all weak / meta.

1. This 180 by Cobalt (#3082 then #3093) immediately made me think someone yelled at him in scumchat to stop antagonizing me.

2. At the start of day 2, I considered players who were likely to both lead their respective covens and also want to NK jan and thought Regfan was most likely to do that.

3. Conventional WH logic says that scum shouldn't make the play that delphine or cobalt did as scum. However, Regfan is a set of fresh eyes onto the game and wouldn't have any kind of preconceived notions on how to play, so it's more possible from his pair than the other. If that's true then he's also projecting his own valuation onto delphine and miner.

4. If it's Delphine / Miner... they haven't actually been looking or even thinking about a path to victory here, while on the other hand Regfan clearly has been.

 

See this is where you're just thinking about the game incorrectly, Delphine/Miner don't need a "path to victory" given that Miner has a vest, they just need to not get lynched when there's 8 or more people alive, if they survive past that they win the game. Given there's been a lot of people that have wanted to kill Fontisian/Waco/Jarizok/Yourself in the previous days them just letting it play out is a winning move for them and is largely what Miners done here.

"Path of victory" is something I'm considering here; I'm attempting to narrow down the scum teams I think are even plausible inside the game, attempt to evaluate the likelihood of them and make a path that involves beating the most of them as possible.

---------- Post automerged at 03:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:03 AM ----------

I mean if you're looking at "path of victory" here, what's mine as scum? Think about it for a second there Kai, if it's Cobalt/Me then Jarizok always states that Delphine is town tomorrow turning Miner into a clear with a vest...which I'd want as scum; why? Definitive information like that would lock myself into a really tiny box as scum where as scum I'd be itching for a Jarizok lynch because then I can sell multiple worlds moving forward and spend 3 lynches on the Delphine/Miner duo rather than 1 now to find out their alignment.

---------- Post automerged at 03:15 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:13 AM ----------

Not to mention that'd mean as scum I insisted on having Koalas shot, then lynch Atum to have Fluff vested to bring another investigation into the game and a night where mafia are forced to waste their night kill. Like there's no scum motivation towards that at all, that's not "path to scum victory" type stuff at all. If you don't remember I was even trying to get Vaimes to shoot Koalas before he turned up because I was worried about him self-vesting.

---------- Post automerged at 03:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:15 AM ----------

Not to mention I was pushing on Waco yesterday as my preferred lynch target over Rubicon with Rubicon shot at night, if it's Cobalt/Myself then Waco has to be town; there's no difference in terms of "Mafia left the following day" given both die in the day/night but the order was significant in that if you're considering a Cobalt/Me world that means that had Waco got lynched angels would have had control last night making Fluff unkillable which again I wouldn't be advocating as scum. Like I'd actually scum read Waco moreso than Rubicon up until the EOD and I'd probably not given enough consideration re; "Trying to lynch the town of the two if there is one" during the day phase but it's certainly something that'd have crossed my mind as scum and I've had done.

Like logically it should be really obvious that I'm town if you're looking at "Motivations behind actions" or really just looking at my play fullstop. Like I'm pretty confident I'm narrowed this down very very closely to what we're dealing with in that I think you/newcomb/cobalt/vaimes are just always town and think lynching Delphine -> Having Jarizok claim the result just gives me the information I need to absolutely confidently win/solve this game.

---------- Post automerged at 03:31 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:28 AM ----------

With all that said I'm probably not going to be hugely active inside the next ~24 hours, it's Mothers day here and I've got family over to 'celebrate' it so probably will be limited to casually reading this game on my phone, intend on focusing on a) Delphines big post about Fontisian and b) Rereading this game in light of Rubicon being mafia seeing if I can narrow down this a little more.

---------- Post automerged at 05:54 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:31 AM ----------
Jarizok can I get some quick confirmation from you that you saw Fonti peeping N2

 

Jarizok

What was your reason for lying about your role earlier?

 

Regfan Yes, Font peeped me.
Fable Distancing from the role, as mentioned before.

 

Okay but why?

What was the point?

 

Yeah, I'm okay removing Jarizok/Vira/Owner, this isn't a W/W/W interaction.

 

Well looking back it was pointless, with scum having apprentice to me, but I'd read the last WH where GD died N1 and scum was close to gambitting to victory. I wanted to avoid giving my role away and losing like that, and there's no downside to leaving some misinformation about D1. I was obviously going to claim anyway.

 

Also doesn't look like W/W;

I also really don't think Vira would be as confused as she was re; how Apprentice/GD worked if she was in the scum team with both.

Okay I'm good removing this world.

 

If that's what you wanted to avoid wouldn't it have been better to claim? If you had claimed and then died n1 that probably would have outed rubicon right then and there.

 

Find Jarizoks reasoning re; distancing from the role very plausible, makes sense re; fear of GD dying N1 and mafia manipulating the flips; I think it's probably something he doesn't bother or think to do as mafia too?

---------- Post automerged at 07:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:24 AM ----------

Didn't think this was a world anyway but the above just strengthens it not being Fonti/Jarizok.

 

Regfan

Quick question, do you really think miner softs his role nearly as soon as pregame starts as a witch?

 

If you're referring to the "Pew Pew" I don't read that as a softclaim from Miner, it's just something he says a lot;

^
Him saying it in the early game of SVM where he was VT.

 

I was not so sure about what claims when as I represented obviously, and consensus went against claiming D1. On top of that the selfish reason of not wanting to make myself a target. Being dead is no fun.