Oh....

NVM

 

^
More that points against it being Jarizok/Vira.

---------- Post automerged at 07:54 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:53 AM ----------

Jarizok just doesn't have a partner left alive. If he's scum he's the last alive which might explain the huge decline in activity of him throughout the last few day phases given the game would have felt unwinnable with PoE closing in on the entire team but if he's along here he's just not winning.

---------- Post automerged at 07:56 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:54 AM ----------

Literally just at this now;

Teams of 1: Jarizok, Vira, Fontisian
Teams of 2; Delphine/Miner, Fontisian/Vira

Just have to focus on rereading Vira/Fontisian tomorrow.

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I'm pretty sure that Vira is just town here but I want to do my due diligence there since scum survivalist bussing and getting down to last stand isn't an unreasonable action for scum to take to try and win the game with the role distribution they'd have had.

---------- Post automerged at 08:05 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:02 AM ----------
Jarizok - Mind sharing your thoughts on everyone left inside the game, only need a 2-3 sentences per person thing; don't want you rereading the game or anything for this task, just want where your head is currently at and why.

 

Reading jar's miner wagon analysis it looks bad in hindsight cuz he tries to spin it to make rubicon look good and reg as a witch.

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I don't know that these quotes really mesh when you're saying things like "noncommittal" and "not really engaged" to describe Rubicon's play. I don't know how you come to the conclusion to run up Reg against Owner instead.

 

Fable is the Acolyte confirmed by now, with Rubicon taking up one of the necessary slots in that scumteam for it to work.

Regfan is tonally town, and the solving is coherent and feels genuine, nevermind being cleared by Cobalt.

Cobalt feels townally unconcerned with the state of the game as a whole, closing in on the win. Clearing a red check as mafia only really works if the redcheck is a teammate, and I think Reg is town.

Vaimes I mentally slotted into town really early in the game and I just don't think there's been cause to reconsider. If we run out of options I guess he could be scum, but I don't see it.

Vira scolding Fonti for using the word malice somewhere just stuck out to me as so townie, like Vaimes "Do you /like/ him?" post. She's been keeping the thread in order. I don't think that's something witch!Vira would concern herself with, she strikes me as too self conscious to do that as scum.

Fonti's thoughts have been fairly in line with mine a bunch of times, which is rare enough, but I found the evidence for Koalas/Font unaligned pretty compelling.

Similarly, Witch!Kai would have probably used Koalas in the way put forth. I had him as mildly town on his own merit as well.

Newcomb is DoB so I don't have to read him! Scum!Newcomb wouldn't surprise me per se, but if he is he had me fooled. There's nothing that comes to mind that I can call scummy. Could be because his posts are too long to stick with me like the oneliners I guess.

Delphine has this kind of vulnerability in all her posts that seems really hard to fake to me, but scum has to be somewhere and Miner has been off all game.

I was confident in my ability to read him last game, and he just hasn't been townie. RL and stuff, and he got space for that after the claim, but that doesn't affect someone's tone/style as it has his I don't think.

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I'm not sure what's not to understand about my Rubicon stance. Maybe I can summarize it as Rubi's reads feeling superficial? He was constantly pointing out things, but I can't recall much structured argumentation coming from him, up to him attacking Miner. That was an opportunistic thing he came across (rather than a well argued read on someone) looking back on it now, but the post itself was good in that Miner's defense was bad.

I wanted to run up Reg against Owner because they were unaligned, and I thought we could get more information from two clear wagons than from people leaving their votes off-wagon, as I explained then.

 

So was the reg wagon suggestion to test worlds or because you thought he was the most likely witch on miner or both?

 

He was obviously unaligned with Owner. Running him up and getting everyone to vote one of those wagons forces scum to bus or come up with a reason to vote Reg. I thought Owner was scum, making Reg not scum, but if I'd been wrong on Owner Reg was a good point to start was my thinking.

 

Fonti/Kai and what happened yesterday was theater?

Idek anymore.

 

Right after Kalas died Vira asked when the GD gets its result which is another one of those #uninformed moments.

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Re: the not knowing how the Apprentice works thing, in past Witchhunts the Oracle/Apprentice received their info privately, which I figured meant she'd have to be with, like, exactly Jari with scumteam having all of Judge/Apprentice/HAD to not grasp that, but earlier on she either didn't know how GD worked or wanted to look like she didn't.

 

Essentially.

I really do just think Vira's town here, despite the game making a certain amount of sense if it's Owner/Koalas/Rubicon/fonti/Vira.

About half of those have more than a few little dings against them being at all likely.

I still want to see you talk about Koalas/Delphine/Miner working as a team. You said how given town!GD in that scenario distancing would make sense, but I think my point is more about the fact that their plan would have been 100% relying on Delphine's towncred, and Koalas undermining that doesn't seem like a winning play. If that was the strategy, I feel like he'd have gone the route of making it look like he was buddying her, bolstering her towncred.

I'm planning on going through a few different sections of the game later today, I'll keep those teams in mind and see if I can hard cross off anything.

 

So you’re defaulting to Delphine/Miner because you’re townreading everyone else?

 

I think this is a super incorrect read but I also think Vira is town.

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Actually uh, I don't think that entire Vira read is alignment indicative to be honest.

---------- Post automerged at 11:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:12 AM ----------

More Vaimes/Rubicon not w/w - this line of questioning:

 

Pretty much.

Vote: Delphine

I actually found a weakness in my own read game there looking back, and you may be right Delphine.

 

I asked Vira about what she's been thinking about lately in the first place because upon finally metaing her I realize that she's QT-active and thus what she's ruminating about behind the scenes is gonna look really different as either alignment.

The Cobalt/Kai parts reads here are super endearing. The Rubicon read is kinda, is that what you've been complaining that he's not doing privately to yourself/him??

What I expect scum!Vira to look like is someone that is willing to distance a decent amount and gets increasingly bussy as the game gets more stressful and the TMI gets to her and she feels like her townself just wouldn't wanna mislynch X so she can't.

Vira mostly pushed miner, owner, and Fable early on, as well as verbally wrecked some others. When Vira voted miner she said that she was initially gearing up to vote owner because she (Vira) had more interactions with owner, but that having written out the miner case she felt a little better voting miner. Don't think it's super alignment indicative for her to be kinda resigned to owner being lynched later in light of what I expect from her, but the way her initial suspicions played out -> votes is bordering on way too fucking too clumsy to be mafia territory for me.

Don't remember if it was early D2 or late D1 but she had a Owner->Kalas->Fable/Jari ("but I need to reread the last two/everyone!") lynch list. She then argues that literally nothing Kalas has posted has been townie, and then is shocked when he +lifes miner and is then willing to consider other options, but then ends up voting Kalas when he doesn't come up with anything. Which is also what Rubicon was pushing at the time. I don't know if as mafia there she actually feels comfortable 180ing even though it's already been argued my multiple people that she and Kalas's interactions seem unaligned. Maybe not. The scumteam's motivations re: Kalas there are still one hell of a black hole for me to be quite honest.

She really really wanted to kill Rubicon over Atum. I...probably should feel some way about that.

She is actually the singular person that physically made sure Atum had +lifed fluff when he said that he actually hadn't said it at the time, which is townsided af.

I slightly wonder if the last bit is a mindset slip since my understanding is that she thinks {miner/me} as a pair have the 2nd highest amount of scum equity of anyone left and it sounds like she may know we're town.

That being said her tone/lack of understanding of the roles/the beautiful moment of everyone on page2 simultaneously townvibing with her for different reasons just like. Make me not really believe this.

 

I mean, if lynching Delphine is what it takes to get rid of the paranoia, then ... shrug.

But this is why I'm not moving my vote.

Also, senior prom is today, so I'm going to probably be extremely spotty with activity.

 

Jarizok is right tbh I really don't care as much because it feels like we won't lose but I promise I'll try harder when I get some time tomorrow.

 

Man, if Delphine/Miner are town here, I'm really not looking forward to reading Jan yelling at everyone in Angel chat.

 

Someone really early in the game mentioned that there were 5 scum (maybe Von?), and I was like "huh wow really? that's a lot for 17p" and then confirmed it from the first post. And since then I have tried and tried to make neverlynch lists throughout this game and then look at the remaining names and realize that a large percentage of people in this list are scum. The story of this game for me has been "...where the fuck are the mafia?"

I did at least figure out on D1 that with my town reads being what they were, Rubicon pretty much had to be mafia. I hope that one day I will "be better" than to let his AtE get to me like that. But even with /that/ view of the game state, there literally is always scum in the collection of townreads that led me to that read.

I kind of want to throw up my hands and blame everyone for their complacency in letting the unstoppable tide of Regfan's barrage of words to, worst case scenario, set the mafia up to get 3 lives of town lynched, who say they don't care enough to fight my lynch but that ~Reg will owe them an apology~ rather than them owing me one. I kind of want to blame miner for signing up for a game that he doesn't have time for.

But at the end of the day it's my fault that I do not know where the fuck the mafia are.

Frankly my current Jari read is that "I don't even really think he's scum but I think his reads/activity level combined with my inability to read him are going to lose town the game for town if he isn't." I maybe SHOULD think he is scum for his continual very roboty way of explaining his progression on the Fable crackworld, and because of The One Post Jan Thought Was Weird As Hell and Newcomb Hates That Looks The Worst In Rubicon!Scum Miner!Town worlds.

 

Owner/Koalas/Rubicon/Cobalt/Regfan
Delphine

Straight odds?

 

Bruh I wanted Rubicon dead from day one.

 

By that I mean, give me a % chance based on everything you holistically know/feel about the game, that that's the exact team.