Delphine, you may need a massage because you're probably sore after all that reaching.

 

KaiDASH

Can you tell me why you didn't actually explode yesterday?

Also do you think you'll ever use your ability at this point?

 

Yes, I think it's less likely that Cobalt says that as Rubicon's partner. I quoted it because I thought it was funny when I found it again and wanted thoughts.

I think I voted him less because I find him/Jari that plausible (after I wrote the Jari team post I was like wait, I've been asking for 3 day phases if Jari is mindset clear from being teamed with the watchman due to his approach to Jari's approach to the Oracle and people never acknowledge it, plus Cobalt legit went at his throat at one point D1). Then it was like, well if they're probably unaligned why can't we check Cobalt's alignment instead .

I guess it's more of a "please thread talk to me about my very guttural Cobalt suspicion; if he is scum I don't know if it's going to be ok." But I'll go through it myself as much as I have time to do so.

---------- Post automerged at 09:49 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:47 AM ----------

Although looking at what I wrote last night, it actually is more of a "I think Cobalt is reading Jari wrong rn" case than a "I think they're together case." Maybe that is how I really feel.

 

How would checking Cobalt's alignment be more useful than checking Jari's or yours?

 

Reading around Delphine's claim -

I don't think Vira asks for a CC in a world where she knows this is real.

Cobalt's reaction is a bit... something. I don't like that third sentence.

Do they /really/ fake that interaction? Really?

Cobalt Atum are never ever ever w/w here for that weird exchange they had after Delphine's claim... I hope.

Man.

Maaaaaaan.

___

Spitballing here:

Owner/Koalas/Rubicon/Jarizok/fontisian

There was a plan to use the fact that they had GD/Apprentice/PT, and that plan was to lie about Miner after fonti rammed the mislynch home. Delphine's claim and the subsequent pile onto owner wrecked it. They couldn't lie about Owner's alignment since owner basically scumclaimed ITT, and they couldn't lie about Koalas/Rubicon because Fluff getting double-tapped and dying says those were hits.

Hum. In that world they could have taken the hail-mary and said Atum was the hit, and Koalas was town? What does that actually get them, though.

In this world they didn't actually use fonti's shot and she's saving it to puppet Miner after he's dead and get an extra KP, maybe? That means fonti is actually the carry, they just need to go Delphine->Jarizok (who says Delphine is mafia), Miner-> 2 KP - Miner -> 2 KP, angel save / Survivalist tap, 3 KP with PT'd Hunter shot.

Ehh. And fonti going limp to make it look like she doesn't have a plan?

Not sure if those numbers work out at all.

---------- Post automerged at 11:07 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 AM ----------

I think I'm at the point where I'm just going to write off Vaimes, Vira, and Regfan as town.

Vaimes's tone this game has been excellent, if he's a witch here. Doubly so, since I just don't believe he and fonti are w/w, and Jan/Reg are town, so getting like zero heat from those four people is just.... I think if he's a witch, he kind of deserves this one. I do have some misgivings about the way he's dropped off, but again, RL, etc etc etc.

Vira's had some extremely crafty-if-fake derpclears, her tone's been good, and unless I'm flat wrong on my perception of her meta, she's just out of her range.

Regfan has had some dubious pushes, and I'm not making the same mistake as writing off this level of effort as out of his range, but I think he's pretty unlikely to be w/w with owner. There's also this post. I don't really want to get too much into it, but there are elements of that post that would just be... I really don't think Reg would make specifically to me, knowingly faking that and knowing I'm town. It borders on OGI, which is why I don't super want to get into it, but especially the bit directly to me in that post. I very strongly think that witch!Reg making that post to me would have an awareness of how gross it would be to get townread like that, and would look past this one individual win and know what kind of a profound negative impact it would have on any future games we played together.

That leaves Delphine/Miner, Cobalt+1, and some combo or singleton out of [Jarizok, fonti, Kai].

Jarizok alone
Fontisian alone
Kai alone
Delphine + Miner
Jarizok + fontisian
Fontisian + Kai
Jarizok + Kai
Cobalt + 1

Kai alone would have absolutely conceded, so strike that one. Jarizok alone, and fonti alone get solved anyway by putting Jarizok/fonti as a pair on the table.

Delphine + Miner
Jarizok + fontisian
Fontisian + Kai
Jarizok + Kai
Cobalt + 1

 

Cobalt/fontisian is probably the most likely Cobalt+1 world? It makes fonti's kill-the-whole-PoE plan actually ---> scum win. It makes Cobalt continually dragging her and Rubicon together, uh, ...something.

Cobalt/Jari and Cobalt/Reg I've talked about. Bleh.

Cobalt/KP-person worlds don't really make sense in my head. Unnecessary levels of distancing going on there from people I think are in a great position to mafiaside.

The problem with Cobalt/Vaimes is more Vaimes being mafia in general. The "are you snowing me?" from both their ends is less partnery than not but not slam dunk.

Cobalt/Vira are, like, each other's spirit animals. Would be a first for me to see partners interact as they have. Also Vira is pretty town?

 

Think this exchange is pretty decent evidence of Cobalt/Jari not w/w.

---------- Post automerged at 12:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:13 PM ----------

I forgot this little thing happened where Cobalt thought this was an Acolyte soft and then argued with fonti about it for a bit.

Think that pretty well rules out Cobalt/fonti. Might need to go read those interactions but I remember them being pretty organic.

 

Unvote

/10 chars

---------- Post automerged at 12:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:33 PM ----------

Why is this the one part of my posts today you're interested in ;_;

Lynching Jari first wouldn't be a check because he's GD.

I'm town and if Jari claims otherwise, lynching through two lives of town is a huge and terrifying waste of town's time. If Jari tells the truth then, uh...big whoop, miner probably still won't read the game very thoroughly but I guess at least the conversation goes in a more productive direction.

On principle I think I would rather lynch a non-Jari person that actually has a chance of being scum.

I....don't super know what I'm doing though.

Newcomb's fonti/Jarizok argument is p interesting. Trying to spin wheels around how anti-wincon it is for fonti to be hell-bent on getting miner +lifed there + Kalas initially not listening to her about me getting +lifed the 3 times before that she asked.

 

Ugh fuck mechanics but let's think about this for a second.

Reading parts of D1 has me kind of skeptical all over again of Delphine being mafia here. Miner could easily be mafia but just like. The whole sequence.

> Delphine clearing a partner when the wagon was obviously going to swing to a second partner

> Rubicon soft-defending Miner before the claim in a way that looks waaaay more like he wanted to stay off a bad wagon and way less like he knew the clear was coming

> Koalas throwing plenty of shade Delphine's way when the whole plan would have been based on Delphine's towncred.

> Delphine's exasperation with Miner sound really genuine. (Which, yeah it would be as a witch too but why even /do/ that plan if Miner was going to keep yeah we've been over this.)

Let's say we lynch Delphine here.

If Jarizok is a witch with one living partner, he's forced to claim a green on Delphine and subsequently clear Miner.

If witch!Jarizok claims a red on Delphine, he'd have to back that up by showing 2 KP by using the IK, since in the world he's selling there'd only be one witch alive (Miner) tonight. If we lynch through one of Miner's lives tomorrow (after the red on Delphine) he'd not be able to do that again, since him+his partner would be alive, it would out him as a witch, we'd lynch him, and then... what. His partner would get a last stand. We'd probably have Kai Leeroy into fonti, beating Kai/Jarizok and Fonti/Jarizok, and then, what? If that didn't end it. It would pretty much have to be Cobalt/Jarizok but that doesn't really work.

The Jarizok/fonti world is kind of predicated on giving fonti a chance to puppet Miner by PT'ing the Hunter shot and giving her triple KP for a night, but to do that they have to shoot Miner twice, which means probably shooting him tonight/tomorrow and then, what, hoping fonti can dodge a single lynch? Ehhh.

Not sure how much water this theory holds.

If Jarizok's by /himself/, he doesn't have to use IK at all, he can just shoot twice tonight and claim Delphine was red, then, what? Hope we don't lynch him for the one-for-one, then pew pew pew pew as we lynch through Miner's lives?

But no we'd always lynch Jarizok after giving Delphine as a redcheck. That's not a winning play.

What if we lynched away one of Miner's lives, and used the night results as a check on Waco's alignment? If Waco was town, that's, what - Jan/Atum/Fluff/Waco vs. Owner/Koalas/Rubicon so Fable should never die tonight. If Fable /does/ die then it would rule out any pair of two, which would rule out Cobalt/Reg and Miner/Owner.

But eh, witches know this and can plan around it. Just not shooting Fable and killing Vaimes or something. Or even me and hoping I'm on town.

What if we straight-up lynch Jarizok?

Any living world of two could rep one alive by using the IK, but they'd have to hard-bus the next day in order to maintain the ruse. And Delphine/Miner and Cobalt/Reg can't do that.

Hm.

Am I onto something here?

If we lynch Jarizok, and he's town, is there a world of two that makes sense to anyone that's not one of the clear pairs, that doesn't include Jarizok?

Because if there's not, it's like.

Jarizok/X, Delphine/Miner, Cobalt/Reg.

Delphine/Miner can't really push Cobalt/Reg after the way they've interacted with them ITT, so they have to push Jari/X or be outed, and to do that they have to rep one alive, X is fonti or Kai or Vaimes or something but to do that they have to IK. And then... if they get that lynch, they can't show 2 KP the next day and they're outed.

Reg/Cobalt can easily just not use IK and say it's Delphine/Miner after all. But... I just think Reg's town here? For reasons I already went into.

And if it really is Jarizok, then we see 2 real KP the next day and just have Kai leeroy into fonti and that should seal her up?
KaiDASH am I wrong?

I hate mechanics. I hate mechanics. I hate mechanics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8w95xIdH4o

---------- Post automerged at 01:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:19 PM ----------

I guess any plan that relies on witches using Last Stand can be topped by a lone witch just... not using Last Stand.

But to be perfectly honest if there's really only one alive I'm perfectly happy with the last witch using 1 KP for the rest of the game. Think we probably just win that always?

 

I mean, I didn't really want to lynch Delphine either.

In an ideal world I'd rather just keep Delphine / Miner as townclears and only turn on them if necessary, but Miner's vest detracts from that a bit.

My life is a whole lot easier if I write them off as clear and work down the rest of the PoE but Reg was pushing Delphine as the mechanically correct play so that's what I based my analysis on.

---------- Post automerged at 05:26 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:24 PM ----------

Also wouldn't illusion kill never work because we've mass claimed and know where the vest is? They'd have to claim angel protection on the IK target and that's super shady.

 

This wording is what kept me up at night writing out like 30 possible team combos with you in them.

---------- Post automerged at 02:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:49 PM ----------

Well that and one other thing.

Anyway I'm headed into work but I don't know wtf to do with my vote, so I'll try to check in for that.

Actually pressure von next phase, please. I would do it myself if I knew how.

---------- Post automerged at 02:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:51 PM ----------

Kai's townbloc feels good.

 

How do we protect against the world where it's Jarizok/X, Jarizok says Delphine was a witch, we lynch Jarizok, then Miner twice, giving Jarizok's partner 3 nights of 2 KP?

 

Kai said by lynching one of miner's lives first.

 

I feel like a lot of my mechanical thoughts are centered on witch NKs/Last Stands and that's kinda bad, on the other hand any idea that requires witches to not realize something is probably hella bad anyway.

 

Day Ends in like, 3.5 hours.

I should be home ~30 minutes prior to day end to give a vote count and stuff, but Jan's recent one looked accurate. Re-vote if yours isn't where you want it based on that one.

 

OK I can't actually stop thinking about this.

I just wanna say. He's actually completely correct in that I'm not in the frame of mind of ~how many lynches does any set of people need to win~ and how angels/demons actually work.

I mean. If y'all are scum you still get to waste a lynch on someone who probably wouldn't have been lynched anyway and then potentially justify your pair not getting NKed over people who are producing less content?

I honestly have no idea if you could safely argue as scum to lynch Jari first. Maybe you're right.

No issue here other than that it's not that bad for your team to lynch Atum for wanting to murder the fuck out of you and Cobalt, and I'm concerned you may be projecting the whole "let's set up one half of the team to look good!" thing onto me with the Kalas thing. Well, actually, Kalas brings up ~I wanna give my vest to someone actually trying to do stuff!~ but then doesn't actually have the balls to give it to your half of the clears or mention either of your names at all.

---------- Post automerged at 03:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:15 AM ----------

The one weird thing is, uh, Rubicon may well have been TRYING to get lynched? He literally made a huge point of linking scum meta in which at the top of his iso he was AtEing in literally the same way as this game, and then came the read wall + Atum stuff. I went back on Waco when Newcomb brought it up because I realized I really wanted Waco's flip and thought Rubicon was scummier at that point.

Although I'm going to be honest, I kinda sat there, like, ...if this is actually what this guy legitimately feels pouring his heart out as town then I feel so bad. Would he really say some of this shit as mafia? My bs meter needs some help.

My previous point about CFDs is that unfortunately in this meta it's a completely effective distancing/etc. tactic to argue one thing all day and then flip to something else later. And just sayin', Cobalt did lead a charge of "Newcomb and Kai are voting Waco because they want to lynch mafia; thus we should lynch Rubicon!"

 

What the ever loving hell do you even mean by this? When did my logic sound anything remotely like that?

 

OK my summary was kinda terrible but I meant this.

 

I've read the game a bunch of times over now I get mechanics wise lynching delphine is safest most likely but I really think jar is more likely to be a witch between the two of them so I don't think I'll be moving.

 

I'm gonna take some deep breaths and be back in an hour ok??