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Witch Hunt #8

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Eidolonic, Apr 28, 2017.

  1. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    Would rather lynch Jarizok first because there is 100% a witch between Delphine and Jarizok.

    Yes, if Delphine was a witch it's probably Miner but I want the 50/50 lynched first.

    Either Jarizok was lying and is a witch or Delphine was a witch and we are 100% down to one witch at maximum after this phase.

    Lynch: Jarizok
    Vaimes Fable Regfan KaiDASH Vira please vote Jari to end the phase.

    ---------- Post automerged at 10:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:20 PM ----------

    Reg I don't get how going Miner first beats a Jarizok +1 world.

    The sooner Jarizok would be out the better.
     
  2. Regfan

    Regfan First Year

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    Cobalt;
    We beat zero extra worlds from going Jarizok->Miner then we do going Miner->Jarizok.

    ---------- Post automerged at 09:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:22 PM ----------

    Very incorrect.

    By lynching Jarizok before Miner in a Jarizok + 1 world we're getting the + 1 two nights of last stand kills whereas going Miner -> Jarizok only gives them one night.
     
  3. Fable

    Fable First Year

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    Jar/Vaimes is never a thing.

    As far as Jar/Cobalt goes.....

    What are the rules on witches communicating with demons? Are they allowed to talk to each other or at the very least do demons retain access to the witch QT?
     
  4. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    Ok true

    If I vote Miner is it hammer?
     
  5. Regfan

    Regfan First Year

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    The only reason to lynch Jarizok before Miner logically is because you don't intend to lynch Miner at all this game. And well, I think Delphine/Miner is more likely than Vaimes/Jarizok or Cobalt/Jarizok.
     
  6. Vira

    Vira Third Year ~ Prestige ~

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    And I still don't understand why you think Delphine/Miner are scum. Have you played with Miner before? Has he played scum like this before?
     
  7. Vaimes

    Vaimes Fifth Year

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    Witches get a new QT whenever one of them dies to prevent the Demons from reading scumchat.
     
  8. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    Someone please lmk if me voting Miner is hammer
     
  9. Vira

    Vira Third Year ~ Prestige ~

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    Jari hasn't voted, so it's not a hammer.
     
  10. KaiDASH

    KaiDASH Auror DLP Supporter

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    Miner is the only relevant lynch right now.
     
  11. Vaimes

    Vaimes Fifth Year

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    You could count the votes yourself, Cobalt. :I
     
  12. Fable

    Fable First Year

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    It's probably just miner or jar on there own then.
     
  13. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    I'm working.
     
  14. Vaimes

    Vaimes Fifth Year

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    Naughty, naughty.
     
  15. Regfan

    Regfan First Year

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    Yeah, it's what I keep coming back to but still want to give ourselves the most chances of winning if it'd not and going Miner first does that. I'd probably be okay with a quickish lynch and a fast night too. Lynch em both and buckle down if it's not over.
     
  16. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    I feel like witches are gonna target Kai before F3 if he's town.

    ---------- Post automerged at 12:01 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:01 AM ----------

    Let's pray it doesn't go that far.

    ---------- Post automerged at 12:02 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:01 AM ----------

    Vote: Miner
     
  17. Regfan

    Regfan First Year

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    If they do they're spending a night not shooting a clear and we're still able to eliminate the same amount of worlds so that's not a hueg concern.

    I've never been in LYLO as town and have always wanted to experience it but not this game, you have no idea how much I'm just praying that it ends on Miners lynch and if not there then at least on Jarizoks.
     
  18. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    How did that quote from me wind up looking like it came from Fable lol

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:08 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:08 AM ----------

    Can we just hammer him and get the night over with quicker?
    Jarizok

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:11 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:08 AM ----------

    What I DISlike is the amount of people in the PoE that say things like this:

    And this worries me:

    This feels like Vaimes is setting up for the long run and it makes me fucking nervous.

    If it's not Delphine/Miner and lynching Jarizok doesn't end it I'm pretty sure it's Vaimes.

    Last Stand can stack 2 KP on Vira to knock her out before endgame and in a case like the one Vaimes described above, he has Kai pocketed for the win.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:15 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:11 AM ----------

    I feel like it's beneficial to the gamestate just in case this all goes to shit for me to rehash why I'm definitely not a witch.

    Claiming Regfan as town when he was going to be mislynched D2 is not a move that I would ever make. Especially not with two holies still in the game and when roles weren't out yet, he could've been survivalist or something and in a game where I'm a witch I would never ever clear someone that we couldn't get rid of later, and with that many potential clears as top targets still alive it would benefit me in absolutely no possible way to have a townclear survive later into the game that people feel safe trusting, talking to, bouncing reads off of, etc.

    The fact that he's even considering a world in which I'm scum without him is kind of mind boggling tbh, but I don't think he even actually really believes it's possible. Regfan is my ride or die because he's the only one besides Fable that I know to be town, and that's the only thing that makes me secure with this gamestate at the point.

    Given that there is 100% a witch between Delphine and Jarizok, if it's Delphine her partner is Miner and the only partner for Jarizok that makes sense is Vaimes or Kai imo. Because Owner/Koalas/Rubicon/Jarizok/Cobalt is not something that ever makes sense given the way I went for Rubicon's neck so early on and was completely complacent in the lynches of Owner and Koalas.

    I just thought I would hash it out because the only world in which I'm a witch is as Jarizok's partner and partners with the rest of dead witches and from an objective perspective that doesn't compute in the slightest.

    K thanks I'm done now. Can I be town clear pls? Cool.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:16 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:15 AM ----------

    Wait, last stand CAN stack 2 KP to kill Vira in one night phase, right?

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:16 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:16 AM ----------

    Is anyone around to bounce ideas with me?
    Regfan Fable

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:20 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:16 AM ----------

    Looking back, this doesn't take into account Vira's vest and potential angel saves, so I'd like to think we have a bit more wiggle room than this hypothesis suggests.

    Even if it's Jarizok + 1, if it's Jarizok + Kai they're never winning, Kai knows better and would concede at that point, and if it's Jarizok + Vaimes then Vaimes would have to try and take Vira out before F3.

    But yes, we pretty much lose to Jarizok + Vira because by the time we get there it might be too late.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:20 AM ----------

    If it's Jarizok / Vira even though that doesn't really make sense with the rest of the witches' team composition, this is how it'd play out worst case scenario:

    - Miner is lynched (7)
    - Fable dies because he was def haunted last Night (6)
    - Jarizok is lynched (5)
    - Vira kills two (3)
    - Vira cannot die in F3, we lose.

    If there is an angel save it would be one of the two KP from last stand.

    So in that scenario,

    - Miner is lynched (7)
    - Fable dies (6)
    - Jarizok is lynched (5)
    - Vira kills one, one is saved (4)
    - This is MYLO and Vira survives to Night regardless
    - Say Vira's vest is lynched (4)
    - Night kill potentially two (2) game over.

    If someone's saved AGAIN, F3 has the chance to kill Vira but that relies on two angel saves throughout all of last stand and witches likely could still have a double haunt so we could be fucked.

    I'm pretty sure a Jarizok / Vira team clinches it for witches, but given the SHEER AMOUNT of dumbtelling she's dropped this game I really don't know if I even want to believe it's a possibility.

    Everyone's read her town this entire time. I feel like this is a trap because I've lost to this trap before (cough TH5 Newcomb cough) but if it's Vira I guess I'd have to lose to her. Because she's been universally townread, has said some things that seem near-impossible to fabricate or coach that just reek of dumbtell town perspective, and.... I don't know. A world in which Vira is a witch is just way too hard to beat at this point.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:31 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:25 AM ----------

    Cobalt
    Regfan
    Fable
    ---
    Kai
    Vira
    Vaimes
    ---
    Jarizok
    Miner

    So the only other team I haven't explored fully is Jarizok / Vaimes.

    If that's the team, then it goes down like this:

    - Miner is lynched (7)
    - Fable dies (6)
    - Jarizok is lynched (5)
    - Vaimes must kill Regfan here or they go into MYLO with a townclear, and the only possible double kill because of Vira's vest is Regfan + Kai (3)
    - F3 of Vaimes / Vira / Cobalt in which case we will kill Vaimes with fire because we'd lose to Vira anyway.

    If there's an alternate route, from the Jarizok lynch:

    - Vaimes stacks both KP from last stand on Vira (4)
    - MYLO, Regfan / Cobalt / Vaimes / Kai, at which point Kai blows up on Vaimes for the win because Regfan is still townclear so he never dies and Kai will come to his senses by this point.

    I think the second world is actually more likely because Vaimes seems to think Kai would always blow up me over him which would actually win him the game. So, there's that.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:33 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:31 AM ----------

    Either way I think I almost always survive to the end because kill priority has to be Fable -> Regfan because they're lock town 100%, so I'm like, really nervous about actually having to play through to the end.
     
  19. KaiDASH

    KaiDASH Auror DLP Supporter

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    anyway people should just chill and wait until miner and jarizok are dead before trying too hard.
     
  20. Regfan

    Regfan First Year

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    Cobalt - No idea how your quote ended up with Fables name, we're waiting on both Fable & Jarizok to vote for a hammer.

    I'm ~sort of here to bounce reads, actually at work but can check in occasionally. I mostly agree with your "Lets move this day phase along and lynch Miner with hopefully a fast night if it's wrong" type attitude.

    I think the odds you're scum here are pretty ridiuclously small, there's very little scum motivation behind how you've played this game. And D2 would have played out a really funky way if that's a move the scum team planned.

    But frankly I'm not interested in a "I'm more town than X" type situation since I think Vaimes/You are both just town.

    Rest I'll comment on later.
     
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