Fine. >__>

---------- Post automerged at 01:47 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:46 AM ----------

Okay. /ten

 

Cobalt - You're not wrong in that the plan I've put in place which beats 4/6 worlds also has "leeway" involved in that it doesn't include potential missed night kills for scum so we could beat even more teams then that.

With that said beating Jarizok/Vira is almost always going to be impossible, even at the F4 lynching her knowing that she has a vest and we can win with a protect save feels...like a really really risky move; we lose if anyone else is scum and we might still lose if she's scum. It'd have to be a real strong scum read on her to lynch her there.

I think I'd like to come back to this conversation and hash it out properly if the game doesn't end after Jarizok/Miner or at least after Miner.

 

I don't think this is a good discussion to have at this stage, as scum still have several kills to make before then if the game isn't over.

 

Pretty much just waiting on Fable/Jarizok to vote.

 

Vote: Miner

 

The fact that Jarizok hasn't said anything else this phase is lol

 

Vote:Jarizok

 

If the game doesn't end on a Jarizok lynch are you intending on lynching Miner next? If the answer is yes you should just be hammering Miner now, always better dealing with Jarizok+1 by going Miner->Jarizok then Jarizok->Miner.

 

Also, I ain't no witch! Vote Miner please Fable.

 

If lynching jarizok doesn't end the game it'd be pretty amazing if I was around the next day.

 

Not untrue but I'm kind of..pretty set with where I am in this game right now, I'd be pretty shocked if there was a mafia outside of Miner/Jarizok so lynching them back to back wins us the game almost every time. That being said mechanically it's always optimal to go Miner before Jarizok here and doing so gives us a chance to beat a scum team that we might not beat otherwise. I kind of just want to speed through this Miner->Jarizok day phases so you hammering Miner and ending this day would be pretty strongly appreciated if you think it's as simple as that too.

If you're genuinely considering a Jarizok+Vira world though then I'm willing to hear it.

 

Do you think miner as the last witch doesn't activate last stand, tries to kill me and then when I survive tries to suggest I could be a witch? This is a believable sequence of events for you?

 

Sigh. I shouldn't have to repeat this again.

Mafia could not activate last stand last night without creating autoloss for themselves


If mafia activate last stand we chain lynch Jarizok / Miner and win 100% of the time.

 

Well he wouldn't be killing me but I don't think he skips over looking at the kill as a witch.

 

And yes, I think him shooting you and then including you in the pool is a potentially an attempt to force a 'derp townclear' type moment, the fact that both Jarizok / Miner have done something similar in the game means it's objectively a fact that mafia have done it.

 

Isn't that what we're doing anyway?

 

..Pretty much? But last stand would make this game 100% locked, like there'd be absolutely no chance for scum to win. Here they can still hope that somehow town derps and they sneak a win, highly unlikely a win but still a chance. Like "not activating last stand" is absolutely not a reason to think Miner is town. The fact that you were shot and that means mafia might have thought you were haunt-doced the night before making Delphine town, a reasonable stance to take. Two kills not occurring absolutely is not a reasonable stance.

And again; if you think it's Jarizok + 1; sell me on the +1 and I'll unvote and reconsider a little more, if you think it's Jarizok alone then just hammer Miner and we'll lynch Jarizok in ~6 posts tomorrow and win the game.

 

The problem is the only one I can think of is Jar/Vira and we lose to that regardless. >.>

 

Yeah, the only way we beat Jarizok + Vira is if we never kill Miner this game and do something like this;

Lynch Jarizok (7 alive)
Mafia Night kills x 2 (5 alive)
Lynch Vira (5 alive)
Mafia Night kills x 2 (3 alive)
Kai leeroys into Vira

OR

Lynch Vira (8 alive)
Mafia Night kill x 1 (7 alive)
Lynch Jarizok (6 alive)
Mafia Night kill x 2 (4 alive)
Kai leeroys into Vira

And well frankly, I think the odds of Miner being mafia are dramatically higher than that of Vira being mafia and if you agree with me on that then you should just hammer Miner. If you think there's a higher chance Viras scum here then Miner then talk with me about it.

---------- Post automerged at 07:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:24 AM ----------

Like today is just a situation of

"Do you think it's more like that one of Miner/Vaimes/Cobalt are mafia or do you think it's more likely that Vira is mafia" if it's the first situation then lynching Miner is always the play, if you think Vira is more likely than those three combined then imo sell me.

 

I hate all of the things.

Vote:Miner