Imo, thanks man. Feels great being the only person defending you, stating the only strong read I have right now is that you're town and that I merely just don't think reading too much into the angel save is a good idea with the amount of variables involved and then getting insulted afterwards.

I'm mostly done compiling posts to read in the thread, quite a bit ahead of schedule on that front but really want Cobalt to chime in soon and Vira to get around to discussing the reasons I think Vaimes is town.

 

For my own peace of mind, I'm going to say the shot on Reg was real.

The last witch hugely benefits from getting rid of him because he's townfirmed and the only one stopping me from getting mislynched. Faking a kill for wine is a lot less optimal.

---------- Post automerged at 02:07 ---------- Previous post was at 02:06 ----------

ignore me I don't know why I'm getting so worked up

 

You mean those three paragraphs of links in #3691? Because, you know, you directed them to Cobalt and never asked me to examine them even when I questioned you to what you were referring to before.

You're going to wait because I'm going to bed. No, I can't stay up for them. I'll look at them in the morning.

 

I'm not ignoring you and I most certainly am reading your posts, intend on going over your reasoning behind Vaimes being mafia shortly; I openly admitted to liking your point about his turn around on you. I also "don't have my mind made up", trust me if I did I'd vote and not waste my time -- I've got ~200 links to posts i want to look at in more detail for every player still alive saved up and plan on looking at them soon. You'd asked why I town read Vaimes; no? I'm happy to wait for you to respond tomorrow, we have plenty of time.

 

I just

I don't even

*headdesk*

---------- Post automerged at 02:29 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:28 AM ----------

like, if you think Vaimes would ever turn around on Vira and myself like that unless he absolutely had to, as town, then idk what to tell you

it's just not natural

---------- Post automerged at 02:30 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:29 AM ----------

Honestly I just

Vaimes plays it off so hard as though Reg not dying means he's clear that I find it so hard to believe he DIDN'T illusion kill Reg just so that he could say that.

---------- Post automerged at 02:37 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:30 AM ----------

okay but like listen

if you're Vaimes and Jarizok is your partner, the logical thing to do is try and buy at least ONE more phase. So he feels out the game at the beginning of the last day, and when not a single person other than potentially Kai is inclined to bite, he rush votes Jarizok because of course I would rather lynch Jarizok over Cobalt, what are you talking about

and then Jarizok goes down and the game doesn't end. What do you do? You don't bring Kai. Because Kai's an indefinite. He's not POSITIVE that Kai would always be leeroying me, and it's better to be rid of that than take the gamble and hope he blows me up.

So you have one of two options. Either you try to kill Regfan and lose to Vira / Cobalt if they're both town, or you illusion kill Regfan because killing him would ALWAYS be -EV to you if you're scum. So you do the thing that makes it look like you're less likely to be scum. Because, you know, that's... how to play scum.

Now, you're stuck in F4 with Regfan, Cobalt, and Vira. Now you're in a sticky situation after saying you'd lynch Cobalt next if the game doesn't end and that Cobalt is Jarizok's partner. Because now you're in a situation where Cobalt has a lock clear that's still alive and the two will never be lynching each other, and thus Vira will never lynch either of them.

So what do you do? You flip. All of a sudden it's "Cobalt being scum here is like trying to fit a square peg into a round hole" and "it's definitely Vira guys". After just spending a lot of time talking about how you'd always lynch Cobalt next. Yeah, sure Vaimes.

---------- Post automerged at 02:38 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:37 AM ----------

WAIT

Doesn't lynching Vira's vest here always lead us to the same F4 with no kills?

Reg can't die N8. Vira can't kill Vaimes and Vaimes can't kill Vira without being snap-lynched the next phase. I'm the only viable kill target so angels protect me. Nobody dies, back to F4.

Am I computing something wrong or is lynching Vira's vest a win win here?

 

Cobalt - While there's the argument that via lynching Viras vest we probably don't lose and make it to tomorrow I don't think "hedging" actually gives us anything here, it's time to actually make a decision and stick with it, if it's thinking Vaimes is mafia it's lynching him and losing to Vira,
if it's thinking Vira is mafia it's lynching her twice and losing to Vaimes.

It's that deep in the game that we should just be making a stance and going with it and honestly your play today is......concerning? to say the least; I feel like you're sort of everywhere at the moment and find your actual reasoning behind things here to be really really odd. Like Viras town because her scum reads have all been right? But Vaimes has been equally accurate? Viras town because she was universally town read? But so was Vaimes? Like the only point of yours about Vira that is unique to her is the dumbtells.

Like your point about Vira nailing the exact scum team and order they were lynched just means...nothing here, two were already dead at the time and the other two had a pretty logical order they'd die inside of re; their claims with the last name on the list being the 'least confident' ie. last to be lynched. It's no smoking gun on her being town and it being a large part of your vote reasoning just doesn't feel right.

This is a pretty blatant misinterpretation of what I stated; the first two people inside the game to state any form of scum read on Owner were Jarizok and yourself, I don't think it's implausible for scum to attempt to distance in that manner with the added advantage of increasing the chance of Fanatic being investigated. I don't think this is a big point by any means, just means that I shouldn't be attributing your push to be as big a town tell as I was, that's all.

Vaimes has already touched on this as have I but regardless of who scum is here they've heavily bussed and with good reason too, the other 4 scum were in someones scum pool for majority of the game and weren't going to be the players to endgame; that means last scum alive was best of bussing and would have recognised as much earlier too. So yeah, someone bussed, it's not necessarily you that it but it happened so "No way would I buss like that" is just an argument that means nothing to me here.

You're missing my point here. I'm trying to understand where you're coming from; what did you aim to intend from doing the VCA, what did you actually get from it? Like just going and colouring Vaimes's name in red in all the vote counts does..what here? Share your motivation, what you're doing with me.

---------- Post automerged at 06:40 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:37 AM ----------

Looking forward to this, some real reasoning behind Vaimes being mafia outside of his change in read on you (Which is completely logical to scum read, as mafia Vaimes has to change his read to wanting to lynch Vira over Cobalt here since a Cobalt lynch means he can't win tonight and he we'd mechanically be unable to beat Vira tomorrow forcing him to be a lynch) would be really appreciated.

What's your thoughts on Cobalts play so far today? (Ignore your scum read on Vaimes when stating so, like if you had absolutely no read on Vaimes in this situation how do you assess what Cobalt is doing?)

 

Frankly Regfan I'm just at a damn loss

I got carried away with Vaimes. But I just.

God damn this game is frustrating.

 

Now this I can agree with.

I'm borrowing someones laptop for ~1 hour to try and catch up on this game and will be here to converse if you've got time for it (I imagine it's pretty late over there though) but walk me through exactly where you are? Like I've not really started hard analysing all the links I've complied (Which imo is somehow just under 200) but I'm cool to talk if you have things that you think are really convincing / crucial points. I went into part of my Vaimes town read earlier; did any of it do anything for you?

---------- Post automerged at 06:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:47 AM ----------

It's #3691 ftr.

---------- Post automerged at 06:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:48 AM ----------

Also frankly I'm not interested in hearing any more of the "X would kill Y/Z last night or illusion kill A" type discussion anymore, it just doesn't do anything for me here; far too many variables in play and I think it's more just a headache to deal with then something informative.

 

Okay well where I am right now is that I'm pretty sold on Vaimes being scum.

There's just a sheer amount of disbelief in Vira having said the things Vira has said if she's scum.

Meanwhile, Vaimes conveniently sought an alternate wagon to Jarizok and flipped his reads on me and Vira because that was the only way it could work out for him in this F4.

That's where I'm at.

---------- Post automerged at 07:51 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:50 AM ----------

I don't wanna keep focusing on earlygame. I know there are connections to be made but if either Vaimes or Vira are scum they played their earlygame EXTREMELY well and I don't think looking at that gets us to many places.

It's what happened recently that's the most damning. I believe Vira slacking the last few phases before last and not posting much other than one liners was because she really did think the game would end. I essentially behaved in the same manner when I dropped off a few phases ago.

Vaimes, on the other hand, spent a meticulous amount of time thinking out loud as though he had to try extra hard to look like town.

 

This just leaves me going ??????????? since as mafia for Vaimes it's optimal for Jarizok to die slightly earlier (ie. Yesterday or the day before) rather than "Looking for alternatives) since it gives him control of last stand earlier which he'd need to win the game especially if he's up against Vira!TownSurvivalist. Like you're putting forward a point that if anything a) I disagree with being a thing and b) Should make you think he's not mafia rather than actually mafia? Like what legitimate alternative do you think he could have found there? He was never getting me lynched, as mafia he'd know it's mechanically an impossible move to pull off.

 

If Vira were scum here, do you really think she'd coast on being townread early and not put in an effort later on?

She would have bussed Jarizok six feet into the ground with a fire under her ass and went after her next target with a TORCH.

I just don't see it, man.

---------- Post automerged at 07:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:52 AM ----------

Well if that's true, how do you explain his conviction of "I'm definitely lynching Cobalt if the game doesn't end" suddenly evaporating once it couldn't actually work for him anymore?

 

If just one of the Fable night kill or my night kill went through she'd have won the game by now, like we wouldn't be able to beat her type won the game though so no, she's not hugely incentives to do much more?

This, this a fair point and the only one brought forward so far I actually agree with being a thing, his turnaround from You->Vira after the night kill on me bounced is something that has scum motivation behind it.

I...don't agree with this. I think your play and hers in the last few day phases have been hugely different, you could sense the worry and concern that Jarizok wasn't the last mafia in your case as well as understand the logic behind why him being alone didn't seem likely or make sense. I didn't see that from Vira?

---------- Post automerged at 07:01 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:56 AM ----------

Can you sell me in one paragraph on Vaimes being mafia that doesn't involve "PoE or Vira" if so that'd be largely appreciated. I'd also take one paragraph on you being town that doesn't involve "Wouldn't make that claim".

---------- Post automerged at 07:01 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:01 AM ----------

Obviously focusing on the strongest points only.

 

I mean, I guess I can see that with her vest she'd be less worried / motivated, but I still feel like the last few phases would have played out much differently with her activity were she a witch.

Like, it's the definition of lategame opportunism and it's not something he can even cover up in any way or make any excuses for because it's so late in the game that it's the only thing he could've done to make the gamestate mechanically possible for him to win. You and Vira were 800% never going to lynch me. Once he'd made the decision to kill Kai he had to switch tactics or lose.

The lack of worry is actually my point, because I think she did think the game would end with Jarizok and that one of Delphine / Fonti / Waco could've been scum. She admitted that she just got lazy thinking it'd be over, and wouldn't scum Vira, knowing full well that the game wouldn't be over after Jarizok, wouldn't she try to look a tad bit more worried?

---------- Post automerged at 08:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:03 AM ----------

Working on a response to your other stuff.

 

This reasoning doesn't do much for me though, like she's got no real threat, everyone in the game is strongly town reading her, she's got a vest and the only way she can lose is if town get multiple saves and make the decision to lynch her twice? Little fears? Little reason to do much? Like if Fable wasn't saved or if I wasn't saved then shes in a 3 way and we can't beat her in a 3 way when she has a vest, it's mechanically impossible.

I mean it's sure, it's also very plausible she as town thought the game was genuinely over after the Jarizok lynch too but I'd brought up logic that pointed against it and it just went nowhere? There's certainly lots of indicators that she's town, lots of dumbtells throughout the game (Not understanding how GD/Apprentice work, thinking you were the priest, not knowing what last stand was) that are good reasons to think she's town but there's also reasons to think Vaimes town too so your confidence on Vaimes being mafia to be comfortable throwing down the vote and saying that early game play isn't as relevant feels odd.

---------- Post automerged at 07:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:10 AM ----------

Also honest question; how locked is your vote on a scale of 1-10 with 1 being completely unsure and 10 being never unvoting here because it's kind of hard to gauge at the moment.

---------- Post automerged at 07:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:13 AM ----------
Vira - Save me some time if you can, how many WH's you played and what were your roles in them?

 

1. Vaimes did extremely well at blending in earlygame. He made posts very early like:

which is a really carefully crafted distancing if you look at it the right way. It doesn't even say that it's particularly AI about Owner - it just makes an observation. This is left open-ended, and he can justify it however he wants - he could say he thought she was the priest but didn't want to say anything, or that he thought she was scum once she flipped.

I know I'm not allowed to mention Vira but I'm just reading back through my catchup wall from Day One, and I mentioned a lot of really tonally pure posts that Vira made. She asked the right questions and prodded the right places that it really looked like she was scumhunting, while I think Vaimes had more opportunistic posts that could be left ambiguous for a reason.

I know I literally just said not to focus on earlygame in one of my recent posts but it's turning out to be really telling for me.

Also L M A O

This exchange:

Is one of the most HILARIOUS I have ever had the pleasure of witnessing on DLP. Who DOES that with a teammate on day one?!?!

Also, THIS post from day one would be an extremely, extremely weird dogpile of distancing if Jarizok / Owner / Vira were all on a team together:

https://forums.darklordpotter.net/showpost.php?p=986802&postcount=1150

Jarizok says he's 80% sure Owner is scum. We now know they both are, so it's distancing. Vira goes after him for it, and then refuses to run up Reg against Owner.

Like what kind of compound mindfuck play would they be going for here? There's no way that exchange is manufactured.

Too much Vira. Right. Focus on Vaimes. Ok.

Like, speaking of being a huge Neutral McCommitmentlesspants, this is a super noncommittal Jarizok read.

Weird and fishy don't say anything about alignment and you can always go back on that later.

I just. Vira was so PURE. Vaimes just was not. That's what it comes down to for me.

2. Why I'm town? Stahp questions like this so late, seriously lol. But I'll humor you. I've been thinking out loud for almost the entire game. I haven't used my QT because anything I wanted to dredge up for my thought process I vomited into the thread. My thought process is completely transparent, and from a town perspective, and nearly every person in the game received it as such. Also it's F4 and you're still alive. Welkies.

 

Thanks for that. Have to hand the laptop back now but I'll be reading / responding to that tomorrow at work probably. Night.

 

Just humor me for a minute on seeing if there's a world in which we can potentially lynch both successfully and not lose.

If we lynch Vira's vest and go to the same F4 because I'll be protected, and then lynch Vaimes, is it mechanically impossible for angels to protect us both? You would've had to be haunted last night and they'd saved you anyway in order for them not to be able to. If they haven't used their extra save yet, there's potentially a world in which we can lynch both Vaimes and then Vira.

I don't want to think about that too much because I think Vaimes clinches it. But I'm just trying to crunch numbers.

---------- Post automerged at 08:24 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:24 AM ----------

Mmm, never mind, I'll def be haunted tonight and they'll be saving me anyway.

 

Yeah, there's no way we can lynch both Vira/Vaimes, there's a way we can lynch Vaimes/Yourself but never any duo that involves Vira, can't do hedging. Just about aiming for scum now.

 

https://forums.darklordpotter.net/showthread.php?t=35841

This is my most recent scumgame on DLP.

I am so far outside of my scumrange I honestly cannot believe I even have to vocalize it.

Cobalt saying "Vaimes did this crafty thing" or "Vaimes was super smooth scum here" is nice and all but the fact of the matter is, and I really dislike having to say this about myself, but I am just too incompetent to play successfully as scum, at least on DLP. Everyone knows it. It's embarrassing and awful, but it'd be even worse if I lost town this game because for some reason Cobalt has this...completely backwards impression of how I play as mafia. I've won a decent amount of times against him offsite, but it means nothing because nobody really knows my play style. Usually town tears itself apart on its own and I just sit back and vote.

DLP is hard mode for me. I have not won a single scumgame here for that reason, and I probably won't for a long time. The few times I've tricked font, she claimed she knew I was scum and just didn't want to shoot me down so quickly, which feels fucking great, lemme tell you.

I am town. Suggesting that I suddenly got better out of nowhwere is flattering, I guess, but it's completely unrealistic, not to mention frustrating because I have to put myself down to show/prove that I'm town here.

 

Blah, waking up to phone post. Feels bad.

Pretty much what Vaimes said above; I've reread MM and WH6 where he was scum in the recent night phase and this just is....very different to his scum play in both games from his contributions inside the thread, his attitude and tone and his interactions with flipped scum and theirs with him. It's not implausible that he's playing an amazing scum game but there's just a really high chances he's town here, literally the only point anyone has yet to make that I think holds any weight is his stance on Cobalt/Vira but even then it doesn't really contradict his prior thoughts given his 3254 and vote on her two posts later.

---------- Post automerged at 08:49 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:46 AM ----------

Back to bed for me.

Vaimes, I'd like some sick thoughts and reads on Cobalt to wake up to.