I'd like to see your fable case, as you're doing it soon?

 

It's because I know you like bussing that I can't believe you'd propose that case, because there's a clear difference in bussing an EW and going after the LW/Agent pool. There's such a dubious benefit to the latter that I'm sure you know all the pros/cons.

I'll explain it in my case on you later.

Yes, probably in ~7/8 hours time. Away from laptop for a couple hours and I'd prefer not to phone post the case since I'll be quoting and searching for stuff.

 

ok I was out all afternoon and am now going to bed
Citrus --- Unsure what kind of context would change my opinion? I will try and have another look, but like given the conclusion is you're both scum I'm not entirely sure what you can have said that isn't gonna be like "oh that's a scum ruse so you can co-defend without looking scummy". If you could point out stuff you think clears you or even describe what sort of behaviour COULD clear you, that'd be great (anyone else is free to do this as well)

To anyone: Still not really understanding the weiy case? Fable says he's bussing and says last post(s) were tonally bad but that seems really weak and also doesn't explain everyone else piling on recently.

 

Friendly reminder that people that aren't townfirmed need to be using their vote in some form or fashion rather than sitting on them

---------- Post automerged at 10:14 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:12 AM ----------

With that logic there's no use in behavioral analysis whatsoever. I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts, objective or not. And if you really want to I can do so, but I'm a little loathe to do so unless you force me. Firstly because I'm biased in how I see things (as they involve me) and it's more useful to have an outside person pull quotes/thoughts together if you really want that.

Secondly and more importantly, because it doesn't make sense for you to ask me that? Like you just said "I don't think it'll make a difference because you could have said anything for scum reasons at any time" and you're not applying that logic to asking me to do the work for you? Like what said you're not just going to say "oh you'd TOTALLY say that about yourself as scum" if I even do so?

---------- Post automerged at 10:15 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:14 AM ----------

In other news, I'm very interested in the direction the thread will go in today

---------- Post automerged at 11:57 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:15 AM ----------

Wellp hope I didn't jinx it

 

Why Fable is a Witch​

1 - Zealot claim D1 and Misc

So, evaluating his Zealot claim. It doesn't really make sense as any alignment to claim this role early, but you can still try to evaluate the possible reasons behind doing so:

1) Town!Fable, claiming this out of frustration. I did a tonal re-read of Fable before, and I can sort of see this being the case, but it's fairly weak considering this is WH with all its relevant problems with role claims. In terms of how useful the claim is in this world, that doesn't factor obviously because Fable wouldn't have been thinking about it.

2) LW!Fable, claiming this as some sort of signal to the EWs. There's some additional protection here from EWs knowing who he is. Evidence that makes me think this world is possible is from how his wagon basically diffused itself D1 and D2.

In terms of whether I think that means his signal was picked up on - D1 I think his wagon was overall pretty weak so don't think we can read into that too much, but D2 I think it was noteworthy that people didn't seem like they really wanted to lynch Fable.

3) Agent!Fable, claiming this as WIFOM of case 2. Still trying to signal to the EWs, but it's trying to spread some confusion regarding who the actual LWs are, so it's more likely he gets recruited at HT. (Obviously not the case now)

In terms of the first world, I discarded that because I think Fable is a deliberate enough player that he wouldn't be calling for a NL D1, then in the very next post claiming his role in a WH. Not that one single role claim is the end of the world, but it obviously narrows down holy PoE and I think town!Fable would know better than to claim. (Also obviously he should care about being role-killable now through an Angel protect)

Other things that make me think this is his erratic behaviour in general D1. He goes from fluff-y, to his whole argument with Acio then self-votes "for motivation". I just can't see how this can mesh with his sudden request for NL/Claim, apparently out of frustration.

His whole disproportionate response to a couple people voting for him (some of whom he had requested to) and then a Jarizok prod is a bit too much of a mood whiplash to read genuine imo.

His D2 self-vote also falls into this mood whiplash category:

This is up to Citrus EoD levels of oddness, the last line. Again his self-vote came at a time when he wasn't actually in danger of being lynched OR even really run up. The frustration doesn't feel real to me.

In terms of why I thought he was an Agent over a LW (both scenarios seem equally likely in a vacuum I think), is that I had a behavioural town read on him as a result of his exchange with Acio, where I thought Fable made the most sense.

He's not knowingly aligned with Acio because of their little dust up D2. I think that read pretty genuine enough to convince me (especially since Acio replaced out afterwards) it's not w/w scum theatre.

They're not v/v because I think either one of Acio or Fable is good enough as a player to correctly read the other after the exchange they had. It didn't really feel like anyone tried to egg either one on either, and D1 both wagons went nowhere.

There's maybe an argument about the implications of dC trying to diffuse them D2, but since I have a town read on dC, I don't think that figures into it.

So given he can't actually be an Agent, his erratic behaviour is therefore probably best explained as being a LW.

Part 2 to come - it's based on his read on me.

 

At work so can't respond to this fully but two major problems that stick out right away.

1. He's citing events out of order.

2. Is citing meta but had never played with me nor read any of my games AFAIK.

 

2 - Fable's inconsistent read of me

I'm somewhat biased because it involves me, but I think Fable's read on me and how it changed was not natural.

So here's his position D1:

Spoiler

Seems fine as a read to make. His progression into his read D2 and then early-ish D3 on me makes sense too I think:

Spoiler

So this flip he does right before the end of D3 is ???

His sudden "epiphany" thing is really odd, especially since he's playing it really coy when questioned about it by Silver. I've already covered my issues with not believing that he actually thinks this coven is real. This reversal is not well explained or justified.

Beruru's theory about an EW! Hunter makes some sense if that's why they used the IK early, so LW! Fable wouldn't know of it. I think his reversal EoD3 after a couple hours of basically barely above lolcatting in the thread is probably him trying to spill as much wine as he can before he gets shot by the Hunter.

In terms of his treatment of me today (D4), it doesn't really reflect the meta he himself states:

He didn't really engage with me at all, instead choosing to argue over this one pedantic point that doesn't really affect anything.

His treatment of kai, his other scum-read is also ???. I've asked people for cases on Kai, but he basically votes for Kai and then does nothing with it.

---------- Post automerged at 07:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:50 PM ----------

1. What's out of order?

2. How would you know if I've read one of your games or not?

???

---------- Post automerged at 07:55 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:52 PM ----------

You even linked that one game on MU to everyone for them to read over.

---------- Post automerged at 07:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:55 PM ----------

Those are my two strongest points why Fable is a witch.

 

I linked a game where I claimed two hours into the day so if that's your baseline your read is even more ???.

Also I asked people to vote for me and the no lynch proposal came much later not the other way around.

I'll respond to everything properly when I'm off work.

 

I mean I've also read RWBY and the Mafia Champs game for example. But when your defence is he can't possibly have a meta read because he hasn't read any of my games the only response I have is ???

When I did frame it as you asking for NL and then asking for people to vote for you? ??

---------- Post automerged at 08:28 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:26 PM ----------

If those are your immediate "major" problems then ???

 

Vaimes

I'm thinking at this point with my super limited time, what I'm going to do here is just lock you in as town. There are probably worlds where you're not but, meh.

Also just going to sheep your bears read; you'd have a more complete view there and are probably more familiar with her in general. I still really struggle with a lot of what she's putting out as genuine town thinking, but, meh.

If you want to point me towards specific posts to look at, that might be helpful.

I'm thinking there's always at least one in Kai/dC/Citrus just by holistic gameflow. Y/n?

Random musings, agree/disagree?

There's an element the Kai <-> Citrus interactions where it feels like their reads on each other are kind of, pufferfish-iike. Non-organic, puffing up and then going away.

Kai is popping in strategically, not organically?

Citrus's way of poking at my owner townread was an Elder who knew myself and owner were on the list of 4?

dC's mechanical stuff lacks energy? Doesn't feel particularly solve-y outside that.

These are all kind of broad-strokes reasons I've side-eyed them at one point or another.

But yeah, if you want to point me towards something specific I can dig my teeth into, feel free. That's about all I've got time for at the moment.

 

Can you find who is Coven in your place, and why they're there?

Fable can still be a LW, and that's fine.

... but who else would make those kills last night?

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This is why you preview before post, rip. That was @ Wei.

 

Why do you think I would make those two kills? Citrus probably kills miner there and Silver could be holy hunting from anyone else.

Personally, I think Citrus might be aligned with Jarizok based on #3488. (I forgot I did this analysis lol)

Silver and miner are dead (rip) so that leaves Citrus as the most likely to be aligned with Jari based on the votals.

Though I'm wrong with a clear somewhere here because I'm not sure kai/Citrus are both witches. It would mean LW!kai with LW!Fable? Maybe?

 

But if that's your pool of games that still makes no sense.

RWBY I played well for the most part sure but I was a wolf there. If you read g6 I was a villager there and that was another game where I got frustrated and gave up for a period of time d2 so how you're getting I'm closer to my wolf game here I have no idea.

 

Citrus would not have killed Miner there, imo. However, Citrus/Jari JW would be possible... if one of your partners was dC or Fluff? But then Planned Bus Coven becomes real again.

You have to find something else.

 

But I'm not making a meta read on you being closer to your wolf game? I'm not even really using meta at all beyond making a judgement of your level of play and whether I think you would be able to do XYZ.

I'm totally open to being wrong on that, but your immediate defence - one of the "major problem" you state with my case - is totally nonsensical when you even got upset with Acio about something similar.

 

But all your assumptions you're making about my play are wrong so ???.

 

I'm not getting why the onus is on me. Why do you think I (and apparently only me) would make those kills? The Silver kill makes me look bad because he was casing me yesterday.

Since your plan allowed me to apparently be a non-holy confirmed town if I wasn't the Hunter, surely you have an idea of who would have to be Coven in that world?

 

Like you thinking I would never claim as a villager makes no sense when I claimed d2 of the last WH8 game I played and I almost claimed d1.

 

This is starting to feel like caught for the wrong reason behaviour...

Err game rules are different in WH8 compared to this game obviously??

Role-kills make a difference wrt claiming EVs and this game has the whole HT,LW,Zealot etc...

 

Oh bullshit claiming is claiming and whenever I prove you wrong on this point you're like "this game is different though so it doesn't count" when I am the last person that would care about something like that.