no, wait, wtf am I saying, that still puts us in LyLo with both ika and Atum still alive. That seems strictly worse than just lynching Atum first and forcing the witches to help us kill the death trigger guys.

 

ok I will agree to stop talking for now

 

didt see this before post,

let me run it give me a moment.

 

ika, here is the hole in that plan: Assuming Bill Door and Lee town, it leaves you 3-handed against Atum and a townfirm. If town is so sure they know the correct lynch in that 3-way, we should just lynch that person now so we have some outs if we're wrong.

 

assuming game doesnt end

ya your right thats how i could see it going out.

what about DOB->atum

they can still heal townfirmed.

really i want DOB to use his ability toDay if hes town thats kinda why im so bent on it, i need some time to look over everyones posts and look back on notes.

---------- Post automerged at 11:56 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:55 AM ----------

ya your plan is better overall on the atum lynch, but i just want to utalize the role we have now.

DOB/BOD are really the only roles left over who have any real talents/abilites

 

if it gets 3handed with DOB+townfirm, town automatically wins. Witches are practically forced to NK him if he's town.

 

lets see i need to post to clear up thoughts.

()=power utility at this point
[]=status

me - spirt (useless now) [ knows im tonw]
lyrim -grave (useless not) [townfirmed via surviing]
chad - inquit (not much to do) [townfirmed via role]
lucky - BOD (+1 life) [unknown]
bill - DOB (kills) [unknwon]
atum - hold checker dude (usless) [unknown]

---------- Post automerged at 12:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:04 PM ----------

what just irks me is the single nk.

if anything it was suboptimal play, but the question is out of [lucky/atum/bill] who would do it?

personaly this is what i think:

lucky: being townread by lyrim, dont see it
atum: i could see it coming from him due to inexperince or lack of knowing last stand
bill door: again i could see it being him being more experinced player, he would know to try a double kill.
me (for learnign and allowign spec): i would opt for double kill right away on the townfirmed (you chad) and prob bill to see if he could mistarget

 

After a lot more thought, I am 100% against lynching Bill today. DOB power is too good in the final turn if he is town. And, since town can win endgames by lynching him even if he is town, we should force witches to kill him if we don't want to save him for lylo.

Lynching BOD is a little better but still not good. Worst case it still puts us in the same situation where town pretty much decides between lynching ika or Atum.

Actually every endgame plan that starts with lynch Bill or Lee ends with lynching Atum or ika with no new information, if the game doesn't end. Right now the greatest asset of the BOD is that he's a bad nk target (so bad angels should not protect him while townfirms are alive), and the greatest asset of DOB is town automatically winning 3-handed regardless of Bill's alignment. Therefore, the correct lynch is Atum or ika.

---------- Post automerged at 12:20 ---------- Previous post was at 12:19 ----------

EBWOP: "we should force witches to kill him if we can't save him for lylo."

DOB in lylo is so so so good, particularly if we can get witches narrowed down to him and one other person.

---------- Post automerged at 12:27 ---------- Previous post was at 12:20 ----------

re: nks - I think whatever witch was left assumed Lyrium would be cursed and was afraid of bouncing a second nk. Which still seems really off, since I was townfirmed already.

Actually, having just typed that sentence I am almost 100% certain witches made a mistake last night unless Lyrium is somehow both scum and not the last witch. I'm...not sure that's even theoretically possible?

---------- Post automerged at 12:32 ---------- Previous post was at 12:27 ----------

Oh, I guess maybe trying to bluff Titus was town with a single nightkill because if it worked Lyrium wouldn't be alive to share the cardflip. That's the only reasonable explanation I can come up with.

 

atum:

things for atum
- inquit check on poly (shows independence from witches)
- confirmed your holy status (iirc)
- his frustration against me (its more real talk, but i understand his furstartion against it)
- bill calling him town (wich strikes me odd)
things agianst atum
- the inquit check on poly (by the same accord it check trick was used it would mess it all up)
- lurking (but its default for atum)
- yesterDay post how hes policy voting me (he said titus is obvi!scum but refused to vote her)
- his frustration against me (it could be feigned overall, but i would like to hear his thoughts, could of been slightly drunk)

Bill door:

things for bill:
- being slightly direct (to me it seems like that)
- being more bullet point like then just wall post after wall post
things against bill
- voting me for thinking im scum (granted i almost always act scummy)
- saying he was fine with hiting titus but then switched to me (disttancing imo)
- wanting to live to use ability late game (understandable but odd)
- wihite-knighting atum based off his action (could be he knew check trick wasnt used)

---------- Post automerged at 12:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:32 PM ----------

for me lyrim dying would just confirm that titus was a witch, they obviously didnt want her info to be known...

i think im trying to overanalize this gamestate.

im going to take a break

 

I think if we are in lylo we lynch Bill no matter what. Therefore, I don't really care if he's a witch because he won't be around to win the game if he is.

---------- Post automerged at 12:37 ---------- Previous post was at 12:36 ----------

like, if I am in lylo with Bill, even if I 100% believe someone else is a witch, I will still lynch bill and hope he DOB kills the other person. That's strictly better than lynching the other person.

Bill basically can't live to the end of this game.

 

hold one i need to run the numbers again b/c i think i lost it

worst case atm

6 alive

myslynch= 5 alive into night with 2 townfirms

one townfirmed dies (one cursed other healed), follign die


A) I die
3 alive: 1 townfirmed, DOB, BOD.

DOB lynched and hits townfirmed, BOD must be town and town wins

B) BOD dies

3 alive: me, DOB, one townfirmed
gives live to town firmed and we lynch DOB to hit me townfirmed live and win

C) DOB dies

3 alive: me, BOD, 1 townfirmed

C.1) Hits me

if BOD is witch, witch wins tie

C.2) hits BOD

game ends in town win with em and townfirmed

C.3) DOB hits no one

3 alive: me, 1 townfirmed, BOD

my brain is hurting from all this now

---------- Post automerged at 12:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:50 PM ----------

vote atum

im just gonna go with the atum plan and place my vote and go with this plan becasue it seems most optimal vs mine

 

If Bill is town and gets nk'ed, we can assume that he'll try to win the game for town instead of trying to lose it.

The really important thing to notice in that post is that the only really bad sitauation comes when witches NK DOB too early. Let's not do their job for them.

---------- Post automerged at 13:03 ---------- Previous post was at 12:57 ----------

So yeah, here is what I'm thinking at this point:

-Lynch Atum now
-Lynch Bill at lylo if we get there
-If Bill dies to nk while townfirms are alive, maybe shoot Lee. Not sure on that one. (it's effectively +1 townfirm)
-Reevaluate if there's another angel bounce

lynch Atum

 

im goign to do vote count after i recover, coloring them all is a killer on my laptop untill i get my mouse

---------- Post automerged at 01:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:07 PM ----------

chad unvote plz, if anything you + lyrim should be the final voters

 

sure

unvote

 

Vote Count 6.0 (#3334)
6 alive: 4 to lynch

Atum (1) - ika

Abstain (5) - Bill Windows, Atum, ChadMiller, Lyrium, Luckylee

Day 6 ends here.

 

Wait a second.

Mods, do angels protect from any kill or just nightkill? If they can protect from DOB kill I may have just solved this game.

---------- Post automerged at 14:00 ---------- Previous post was at 14:00 ----------

Also angels know who witches are right?

 

(1) Angel Protection only comes to play at Night. Please specify if this isn't what you meant.

(2) Correct.

 

(1) Witches nk DOB, DOB targets someone who has angel protection for the night and wasn't nightkilled. What happens?

 

DOB's target survives that single attack, and this is publicly announced at next Daybreak.

 

ok, I thought some more and I didn't solve the game. But that is yet another way for witches to lose; Bill gets nk'ed, targets someone who he believes is a witch and then townfirms them instead. Actually witches are pretty close to dead here; basically town has to collectively mislynch twice and the witch has to win a coinflip and not be Bill:

(0) We lynch Bill at lylo no matter what. If anyone disagrees with this, I can explain it, but I think this is clearly correct. If we do this, Bill can't win if he is the witch. So the rest of this analysis will assume Bill is town.

(1) The last witch is one of [ika, Lee, Atum]. We lynch one of those people today.

(2) If the witches bounce an nk and Bill lives, town wins. This is because there will be at most two people alive who are not townfirms. Town will have enough time to kill them with the help of Bill's DOB kill (still lynch Bill when the time comes).

(3) If the witches nk Bill, he will shoot another "possible witch". If Bill hits the witch, town wins. If Bill hits the one who's town but angels protected that person, we get another townfirm and there's only one possible witch left; town wins. If angels protected an existing townfirm and Bill kills a townie. town can still potentially be in a 2 townfirms vs. one witch endgame.

FWIW after mapping it out I realize Lee's power basically doesn't matter. We win or lose this game tomorrow regardless, and barring an angel bounce we're basically guaranteed to go into the day with exactly one townfirm. So that shouldn't factor into lynch/angel decisions at this point.

So, I'm currently endorsing:

-Lynch people from [ika, Atum, Lee] until we win the game or hit lylo
-if Bill gets nk'ed, he should use his discretion from that same list
-Angels use their discretion as well, since bouncing essentially any kill including the DOB hit is gg town
-If we hit lylo, lynch Bill