If you have reasons to believe that LochNess is not distancing but always trying to lynch a town on day 1, then i might be wrong.

But just reading snowvons side of things, andthe way he voted looks really bad.

 

EBWOP: Ah I see, my bad I accidentally cut out the new vote but left the reasoning, but note how Lochness doesn't vote Snowvon until that point, even though his vote switch to me puts him on the wagon Lochness was on all day.

---------- Post automerged at 10:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:20 PM ----------

The worst part of Von in that sequence to me is that after promoting a Lochness lynch, and then getting off it to try and support a current wagon, is that he doesn't get back on it when it gains traction

 

so

town
me
prophy
dlgn

probable town
aria
newcomb

those other people
snowvon
jan
waco
plotless

Only issue is that if the last witch is someone we're not lynching til later, we get really blown out by last stand.

---------- Post automerged at 01:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:22 PM ----------

can the team be exactly lochness, snowvon, aria?

is that real life?

 

It is weird that he hard defends Cobalt, but does not try to convince town to lynch Lochness in any way or form.
I don't see town!von making that play.

Still not sure if he is my kill today, because that just means scum have 2-3 kp tonight (depending on newcombs alignment)
I think Newcomb is more town, so i am not worried about his shot .. but i would prefer to not lynch snowvon, but to shoot him tonight, and thus removing the possible 2 kp from mafias hand for tongiht (unless we hit snowvons other partner).

 

Given the worlds I've been thinking of since yesterday, the reveal on Loch only leaves me more nervous about Newcomb tbh. And the tone i'm getting his #1007 is screaming his TH5 play to me

---------- Post automerged at 10:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:32 PM ----------

I'm starting to get ready for work, but will be around for about another 25

 

Kai do you mind taking a stance on the game?

Or rather your 4 unconfirms.

I think scum always had the plan to push the Lochness kill yesterday and use her on the priest.

I also think that Aria and Newcomb are town, even more for the end of day 2. For me that felt like town trying to lynch von and then moving on to the other person that was questionable.
Mafia are more likely to bus early i think.
Leaving the priest alive always gives another check and if town believe that check, then town is close to auto.
Pretty sure LochNess was almost always using her ability there ( or early day 3 before the priest can out his check).

So bussing her was more or least the high ev play for scum.

 

i won't let aria be lynched as long as I am alive, that is my most confident read, lol

not to mention wtf happened last night if she's a witch.

 

I am getting a bit paranoid about kai, because the timing on his LochNess push and her being the confirmed scum LC .. just sits wrong with me.

Perfectly set up towncred and all that.

The attempt on Aria doesnt make it any better,because she was unclaimed role but hard town read.
Proph was the likely protect by the angels, so and attempt on her would make sense as dodge.

Which makes it a possible attempt to hit the judge .. looks bad for plotless and a possible survivalist. (either that or frame)
Because the easy confirmed townkill would always be dlgn.

---------- Post automerged at 04:42 ---------- Previous post was at 04:41 ----------

Not everyone might have seen it, only i posted until it got changed.^^

 

Spoiler

hi jan no need to beat around the bush if you think I'm a witch.

 

I do not think you are a witch, i am paranoid about it.
I think your push on Lochness can be either, and i do not know where to put you.

That is why i want to know where you are at outside of the obvious stuff.

Lynchorder between Waco Plotless Snowvon myself.

And what do you want to do with the hunter shot?

 

Okay first of all just to make sure we're on the same page neither Aria nor Proph should claim today if at all possible. Unless witches have both Survivalist and Fanatic they don't know if Aria is Survivalist or was saved, and Proph has the added wrinkle of possibly being the Fanatic with an extra life OR Survivalist.

Okay reading Loch:

This is totally a possible w/w interaction. Softball question that's "safe" as it's essentially mechanics and not really about this particular game.

Less sure about this one - kinda a standard "only giving the appearance of scumhunting" light bus of a partner? Unsure here, doesn't scream w/w but I'm not super confidant either way.

I feel like Loch's MO was to kind of indirectly buddy town by soft-defending them to other people. She did it to Silp with that "more sheep than scum" thing, she did it to me (I'll get to that one in a second), and I kinda think she's doing that with Kai there a bit to Jan. Not that I'd take it to the bank, but I feel like this is +town Kai?

This is to Plotless. Unsure if this is a post Loch would make to a partner.

So this is an interesting post. dLGN you were talking about why I moved off my initial scumread of Loch, this post is essentially it. That and Proph kinda melding with me EoD about Loch.

But yeah, lesson learned. This has worked on me before - where scum can buddy me by kind of soft-defending me like this, getting me to nod along and go "yes I am town and I did that, they must be town for realizing it." Like fonti did last game. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me etc.

I also think it's an interesting post insofar as we might be able to use the reads there to solve the game? Like, reading that last part it's pretty, like - it gives the appearance of carelessness, like straight-up forgetting Plotless on her reads, but then you realize that since Loch was mafia it either a) wasn't actually careless, or b) using real disengagement with the game to appear careless and towny - both of which mean Loch was definitely playing with craftiness, which makes reading her for spew kind of dangerous a la Rubicon last game. Hence, take these with a grain of salt.

Blunting a Snowvon vote by propping it up with Aria's read.

Then these two:

My gut instinct is that the departure in language from Loch's usual tone - the use of "obvious" - makes this likely to be a bus. Basically, Loch doesn't go in for super displays of confidence like this, and it's an anomaly.

The options I think are that Snowvon is a witch, and this was a designed play - basically a mutual hard-bus where they get towncred from their filps, and Loch takes out the Priest if it goes that way. The other option is this is a desperation move - like, really just gunning for town!Snow because Loch is backed into a corner. I can't see Loch using the phrase "makes it obvious that he's a witch" without one of those two mindsets, and the desperation play seems unlikely because witch!LC into Priest D2 is like, not that bad for the scumteam.

And of course, this last post throws a wrench into the works of my proposed Loch/Snowvon/Waco scumteam, because does witch!Loch really try to align his two partners like that? Saying "I feel they are on the same team"?

It's possible - I mentioned above that Loch has some game when it comes to "craftiness." But it does seem fairly ballsy. But... it's also a post she made when it was pretty likely she was going to die. Mrgle. WIFOM.

Loch/Waco/Snowvon feels too easy tbh. But... on a gut level I think town wins this game and MM6 I felt like we were always losing after we killed Proph D2. I dunno, gut things.

I'm kinda townread Jan now for EoD2.

Aria you have to believe is town unless Illusion Kill happened N2, and like, uh. Desperation play? But Aria was widely townread, so why desperate? Nah. Well... dLGN / Proph confirmed town and witches down two... maybe that desperate? Pretty unlikely IMO.

Plotless I dunno. I believe IRL stuff is keeping post volume down. Don't you think the way he claimed was pretty towny though if nothing else? dLGN getting lucky and getting the GD an extra life - wait hang on okay I could see scum desperate if Plotless is town, because there's two confirmed and a double life GD, that's like - hm. Plotless / Aria never aligned? Could be something there.

Waco I feel is likely mafia. Just, on a base level, he's not pushing the way he pushes as town.

Snowvon could totally be mafia with Loch because that post from Loch feels like a bus.

That leaves Kai. I have a moderately strong 100% gut feeling Kai's the Deep Witch here, but I have literally zero idea how to articulate it. "Being more active and helpful than he was as town" is a stupid reason to scumread someone; it's not that. It's something along the lines of "obfuscating bluntness" / "more confidence than should be warranted by the gamestate." I absolutely don't have the conviction to push this.

Anyway, that's where I'm at. Some discussion of the Hunter shot would be nice.

 

Another little point to bring to everyones attention.

Lochness fakeclaimed PT, makes sense to stay alive because it is one of the best townroles.

That means scum either discarded that role or another still living scum still has that role.

We know 2/4 scumroles are Loose Cannon and Peeping Tom.

Just wanted to mention it, just in case.

 

lynch waco, newcomb shoots snowvon.

waco also needs to claim 'not DOB'.

---------- Post automerged at 01:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:55 PM ----------

(or that he is dob, if that is the case. obviously)

 

LochNess claimed Watchman with a green on Aria. That means scum either discarded Watchman or one of the remaining two are that role.

The Aria green is a little odd meshing with going after her N2; like why not leave that open to preserve "Loch gave a green on her partner" WIFOM?

 

Sorry the old peeping tom was the townclearing role and i played a lot with that on videomafia.

Not adjusted to the watchman change yet. ^^

---------- Post automerged at 05:03 ---------- Previous post was at 05:01 ----------

Had a few beer while playing mafia .. gonna go to bed early (5 am) .. curious on peoples opinions.

Have a good night everyone, and a good day to kai!

 

My scumreads are generally good to excellent.

Of course I'm unjustifiably confident in them.

 

hunt waco or plotlesd into oblivion

---------- Post automerged at 23:29 ---------- Previous post was at 23:26 ----------

newcombyou think i'm a witch?? counterpoint: lynch waco, shoot plotles and then i can laugh at uiu when thr gsme ends

---------- Post automerged at 23:31 ---------- Previous post was at 23:29 ----------

yo slgn wbere you at

time is witches

 

spoiler: if he shoots plotless, nobody dies.

 

oh right

im pretty dure thats slgn's fault

 

Snowvon on alcohol: It probably won't help, but it's worth a shot.