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WitchHunt #7

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Citrus, Sep 27, 2016.

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  1. mallorean_thug

    mallorean_thug Muggle

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    1. Jan is town. If he's scum, he's doing an amazing job and playing completely unlike every scumgame I've seen him play.

    2. If Jan has an extra life AND is paired with Newcomb, I don't think we can win no matter what we do. That requires 4 lynches, or 3 lynches and a DOB, and now that tom is outed, they just wouldn't trigger the DOB. Lynching 4 times with 2 during last stand requires bouncing way too many kills. Haunts will make us unprotectable too quickly.

    3. If Jan is alone and doesn't have an extra life, this plan probably ends up with you/tom/jan final 3. I guess convince tom you're town before then and he'll DOB Jan instead of you. I still want to follow my plan in this case.

    3. If Jan is alone and has an extra life, you're correct and we should do a different plan.

    Jan being alone requires the team to be exactly Vira/Slip/Jan. Are you arguing in favor of that?
     
  2. Jan

    Jan Fourth Year

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    I am here .. I skimmed through what happened.

    I agree with mal .. i made most of that math myself .. had trouble talking about it because it depends somewhat on toms role, but if he is outted dob, then it should work out.

    Have to leave within 10 minutes .. might do a little bit of phone posting .. but only like .. looking at the thread every 1-2 hours to see if something important happened.

    Will be back 2-3 hours before EoD (but i assume i am alone at that point).


    I will say this to typhon .. if i was with newcomb then the game is more or less over because if i am fanatic i got checked last night and if i am survivalist i have two lives anyway.
    town basically does not have 4 kills (and even if they do then removing one of my or newcombs live would be the play today.)

    But I am town so that does not really matter.
     
  3. mallorean_thug

    mallorean_thug Muggle

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    EBWOP: sorry the first 3 shouldn't have "is alone" that works if he's paired with Newcomb too.
     
  4. Typhon

    Typhon Unspeakable

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    Mmkay.

    Jan, are you claiming 2 lives, or is that speculation stuff?
     
  5. mallorean_thug

    mallorean_thug Muggle

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    TLDR:

    If Jan is scum with Newcomb, we've already lost because we lynched the judge and they probably have 4 lives. But the play here is still to lynch a life off of Newcomb toDay.

    If Jan is scum by himself, you believe in Vira/slip/Jan. That world makes no sense and you don't believe in it.

    If Jan is scum with tom, that's the argument that you should be making but for some reason aren't.

    If Jan is scum with you, lol at this distancing.
     
  6. Jan

    Jan Fourth Year

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    For all that scum know I cannot die tonight.
    Reasons are not that important. either 2 lives or gambler.

    You are saying that i am exclusive on a team with newcomb.
    In that world we need to remove a live from him anyway.

    That is all there is to say right now.

    ---------- Post automerged at 07:36 ---------- Previous post was at 07:35 ----------

    I will vote when I get back from work in ~5 hours.

    Really have to go right now. Good luck so far.
     
  7. mallorean_thug

    mallorean_thug Muggle

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    Hi, try to keep up.

    Jan, Von, Waco, Witch Discard are confirmed to be [Survivalist, gambler, fanatic, spiritualist]

    assuming that tom is telling the truth about being the DOB (he could only lie about that if the witch team discarded the DOB for some reason, so autoreject that. Or if he's role swapping with a buddy, but then that doesn't affect the role pool)​

    Waco cannot be Survivalist or fanatic, and probably would have chosen odd as gambler, so he was almost certainly the survivalist.

    Witch discard is very unlikely to be survivalist, and decently unlikely to be fanatic. Gambler is nearly useless to scum and would make sense.

    So Jan/von are probably survivalist/fanatic.

    If von is fanatic he has an extra life. If Jan is fanatic, he could have been checked last night and will claim that to be the case in literally every world, regardless of his actual role or alignment.
     
  8. Story Content: Vote Count 4.2
    Citrus

    Citrus First Year

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    Vote Count 4.2

    Vote Count 4.2
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Newcomb (2): Mallorean (#1081), Snowvon (#1151)
    Tom (1): Newcomb (#1032)
    Typhon (1): Tom (#1035)

    Not Voting (2): Typhon, Jan

    With 7 alive, it takes 4 to soft lynch (when day ends, such a player will be lynched).
    With 13 alive, it takes 2/3 * 6 rounded up = 5 (1 more than soft lynch) to hard lynch (day immediately ends with the lynch).
    Without a hard lynch, Day 4 ends in 8.33 hours
     
  9. mallorean_thug

    mallorean_thug Muggle

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    EBWOP: obviously I meant Waco was the spiritualist.

    ---------- Post automerged at 01:41 ---------- Previous post was at 01:39 ----------

    There's some other permutations where Newcomb was the real gravedigger, Vira can get a different role from the pool, and the apprentice is also out there. But they're pretty unlikely and not really worth the speculation. Mostly, we can cover them in pretty much the same way we're handling things right now without even thinking about them.
     
  10. Typhon

    Typhon Unspeakable

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    Hmm. Yeah, okay. You're right. I only believe in that first world as a possibility of those, but you're right, bleeding a Newcomb life is the move either way. We can discuss more when we see how many we're dealing with tomorrow.

    This is probably it for me, see you guys on the other side.

    Vote: Newcomb

    ---------- Post automerged at 12:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:42 AM ----------

    Yeah, I'm an idiot again. This game will not be looked back upon as my finest moment. Going to bed now, keep guiding me to victory Mal.
     
  11. mallorean_thug

    mallorean_thug Muggle

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    Either way, my position is that the final 2 possible members of the scumteam are within Newcomb/tom, and that's where I want our last remaining 3 lynches to go.

    If I'm incorrect, tom can reserve the right to win the game for us with his DOB revenge kill in final 3.

    tom, unless you think that Jan is scum, I don't see any reason for you to object to this.

    Typhon, we're playing to our outs. You are 1 day too late to try to tinfoil about Jan/Newcomb worlds. Do you believe in Jan/Slip/Vira?

    Newcomb, obviously this loses to tom/Typhon. Good thing you had this to say about that team already:
    Sure, this can also lose if they hit all 3 nks, but do you really think that can possibly happen? Through double protect?

    Jan, why the heck didn't you put your vote down before leaving?

    von, <3
     
  12. Vaimes

    Vaimes Fifth Year

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    YOU'RE ALL WITCHES

    AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
     
  13. mallorean_thug

    mallorean_thug Muggle

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    Oh also, if I die in the night and you guys see a second "kill", remember that this is the night when you actually use the illusion kill. You know, to pretend to only have 1 scum left when you actually have 2. Please don't make that mistake.
     
  14. Vaimes

    Vaimes Fifth Year

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    sorry, needed to get that out

    deadline is at 10am my time, and I have several alarms set so I can be here if needed
     
  15. mallorean_thug

    mallorean_thug Muggle

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    Oh, I just want to publicly call this out, just in case:

    If Newcomb is the DOB and tom is the apprentice!gravedigger, they deserve this probable win. Good planning guys.
     
  16. Typhon

    Typhon Unspeakable

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    Ugh. If only I had been here yesterday to tinfoil -_-

    Jan is only scum with Newcomb. I get that. Just ehh. But if that world is impossible for us to address (and you're right, it basically is), then I think it's just Tom that we need to address. But it makes sense for us to bleed Newcomb down on the off chance that Newcomb/Tom is the team, so yeah, this makes sense. I'm all in I guess, I just reserve the right to point a finger at you bastards if Jan and Newcomb beat us.
     
  17. tom

    tom First Year

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    Currently considering changing my dob to thig.
    This contingency plan is dumb
     
  18. Typhon

    Typhon Unspeakable

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    Loool, yeah, this is why you're going to lead us to victory. I hadn't even considered that level of tinfoil.
     
  19. tom

    tom First Year

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    But yes, I will be here eod and will hammer newcomb if necessary
     
  20. Typhon

    Typhon Unspeakable

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    Keep it on me. I'm less of a town loss here - the plan is solid and I'm making too many mistakes and am not widely enough townread to take his spot.
     
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