Saying "if mal was town, he would have done this time intensive thing that he has literally never ever done" is pure slander, and demanding I waste my time.

Unacceptable.

 

Thinking it's the sort of thing a player of your style would do does not equal slander bro.

 

Whatever, my vote isn't moving, Jan's vote isn't moving, and I sincerely doubt von's vote is moving.

And if I'm scum, you win with your DOB shot on me tomorrow.

So, please hammer when Newcomb is done lolcatting. Or before that. I'm going to sleep.

---------- Post automerged at 01:57 ---------- Previous post was at 01:57 ----------

(But again, I would prefer your DOB shot to be on Jan. Because why the heck not)

 

Shrug. I'm waiting for someone to explain possible NK permutations to make sure we can't lose tonight.
Angels, haunts, extra lives. IDK.

---------- Post automerged 10-19-2016 at 02:19 ---------- Previous post was 10-18-2016 at 22:59 ----------

So I looked at the ruleset enough to know that we can technically lose to thug tonight IF my role can be endgamed, which I assume I can.

So I'm gonna need an actual reason to lynch newcomb before thug, rather than going along with the mechanical thing like yesterday.

I'll cuss a bunch in my qt with citrus as I do it, but I'll move my dob to newcomb if we lynch thug today and the game doesn't end.

 

I will now make a little mechanic post.

I hope that you will be able to fight through it. (it might take a few minutes to write this up)

---------- Post automerged at 12:40 ---------- Previous post was at 11:57 ----------

What we know :
1. Between the discarded witch role, Von and myself are these roles :

Survivalist - You start the game with an extra life.

Gambler - At the start of the game, pick even or odd. On those nights (but not days), you are protected from a kill.

Fanatic - When the Priest checks you, you are secretly notified and gain an extra life.

In case of the fanatic we can assume that the double/second life has always triggered. Therefor we can reduce the facts to either gambler or a 2-ilfe role.


2. If Mal is scum then he is always alone. If he had a teammate he would have used two illusionkills, which is impossible.


Possible scum scenarios :
1. Either the exact team of two is Newcomb + Tom or

2. it is a single scum between Newcomb / Mal / Tom.

For this post I will ignore the team of two since it is mostly about explaining the game to tom in case he is town. (But it also always works against the Newcomb/Tom team)
Everyone else should know the drill already.


The play itself is simple.
If we kill Tom today and he shoots someone (most likely mal), then we go into the night with 3 people (Newcomb/Von/Myself). Scum!Newcomb only needs to get a single kill to win the game.

If we lynch someone who is not tom (I will pick Newcomb because he could be toms partner while mal is always solo), then we go into the night with 4 people (Mal/Tom/Von/Myself).
Here scum need to kill 2 people with their 2 killpower to win the game that night.
Mal cannot shoot tom because tom is targeting Mal and mal would lose the game with this move.
He has to kill exactly BOTH Von and myself in this night to win the game.
If Tom is scum then he needs to kill 2 between Mal / Von / Myself.



Important Part - Role Distribution/Worlds :
Von and I are either a 2-life role or the gambler (as mentioned).

Von :
Von got saved/Lost a life/gambled last night.

If Von got saved by the angels last night, then he always has his 2-lifes left if he is a 2 life role. (In that world he is haunted now)
If Von Lost a life/gambled last night, then the angels are able to save him tonight.
IF Von is the gambler, picked odd AND the angels saved him last night while he was haunted, then he cannot be saved.
This is the only world in which Von can die tonight.

If Von is one of the 2-life roles OR even night gambler OR odd night gambler that did not get saved/haunted last night we win.


Jan :
This one is tricky.
First things first. IF I am the gambler, then Von cannot die tonight, because he is a 2-life-role.
In addition IF I am even-night gambler then I can't die tonight. If I am odd-night gambler and did not get haunted the night I got saved (2 nights ago) then I can't die either.

If I am a 2-life role then we still always win IF Von is a 2-life role.
Things get a bit more complicated IF Von is odd-night gambler.

So let's go into the worst case.

I am a 2 life-role and Von is the odd-night gambler that got saved/haunted last night.
I already got saved 2 times, which means either I lost 1 life and angels saved me once or angel saved me twice.
Regardless I am likely to be haunted (I was almost always haunted last night).

If angels saved me back to back (not unlikely) then I still have 2 lifes in this world and therefor we always win.


Extra :
Add to all this mechanics and high likelyhood both Vons and my behavior.
Both of us did not hesitate and go with this play.
I suggested it and was for it, Von pushed it and said the play from here on out is pure mechanics.

This means either we are risking the game on a bluff .. or we know we won't lose.


In the world where Tom is scum, Mal might get killed in the night .. but they still need to kill one between von and myself tonight.
And we have to assume Angels have a double save if needed.

This is all folks.

 

Sigh.
So what I read is that theres a 1 in 3 chance that theres a 1 in 2 chance of vaimes dying, and then odds are against you as well.

It all looks reasonable.
And in worlds where you or vaimes are scum, oh well.
Which are eliminated anyway as you both should have killed me last night based on the information in the thread.

So... why isn't newcomb self-voting? He probably knows all this.

 

1. Town!Newcomb knows that the small risk of sleeping/lynching him is not needed because he is town.
Scum!Newcomb can hide behind that fact.

2. Lolcating.

 

Spoiler

---------- Post automerged at 08:19 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:08 AM ----------

Seriously though it's like. Yeah Jan I agree with all of that. But from my PoV unless either you or Von can guarantee 100% that you can't both die tonight, lynching me as a hedge is wrong because there's a chance you both die and it's 1-1 votestall (which I guess would be a tie since tom is DoB?). And I think the only way you can - correct me if I'm wrong - is if one of you is even-night gambler. If one of you is, I'm happy to just end it right now.

 

Technically IF Von is anything but odd-night gambler. (If he is a double life role then he either has 2 lifes left or angels can always protect him tonight)
And if he is odd-night gambler, then we might still win depending on the angel/demon situation overall.
did they save him last night? can they save me again? do I have a second life left If he is gambler then I have to be a double life role).

Just trust us .. we either know what we are doing or you can blame us postgame.

---------- Post automerged at 18:00 ---------- Previous post was at 17:59 ----------

That is what 95% of the people are looking for, right?

Someone to blame in case everything goes wrong?!

All the glory and all the blame go towards Von and myself.

gg no re.

 

Newcomb, hammer is yours.

Town you would probably do it.

 

No, let's just sit here and wait out the clock.

 

Also a great plan.

 

Von! Von!

I might have a new apartment. finally.

A Maisonette apartment on the 4th floor with a balcony and a roof terrace plus a working chimney/fireplace inside.

We were looking for a catch but couldn't find any. That apartment has been free for 2 month now.
Weird world is weird.


My friend is most likely signing the papers tomorrow. :O

 

Congratulations jan.
I hope we can make your new place free of witches.

 

That sounds exciting!

Is it cat-friendly?

 

Von, how much do I have to bribe you to get you to go along with what I want to do here?

 

No one is changing their mind, newcomb.
I'm considering hammering just so I get to steal some credit if I'm wrong here.
I'd still get to say "I told you so" in the tiny chance of losing to thug.

---------- Post automerged at 16:21 ---------- Previous post was at 16:15 ----------

Like, you see it from their perspective, right?
Thug almost never has a living partner* and I'm DOB. It's necessary or whatever.
If you want to lynch thug or me first, come up with how he forced this situation upon you.


*I came up with a world where thug is gambler and actually used the kill on himself and von is hunter. I was super high, but I think it worked.

 

You can't win, tom. Strike me down, and I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.

 

Well that's too good a last post to pass up.

vote newcomb