Well given that you aren't the Fanatic, for you it comes down to learning whether or not Manasi is the Fanatic. That narrows down the worlds to potentially locking in a witch Hunter, or sanity checking the outed Gambler to hypothesize whether or not they could be Manasi's teammate.

 

Let's roll down the conclusions for now.

1.a.i.>The Survivalist that claims is most likely village.
1.a.ii.>The Survivalist does not claim, meaning the last witch is the Survivalist. A mass claim reveals.
(Yes, I'm aware that in this scenario a witch Survivalist claims for the towncred. This is kind of a very specific world and would be taken into consideration as it came.)

Why. If the witch could claim survivalist for towncred they will now do so, meaning that you can't really draw any conclusions off this.

*If Manasi was the Fanatic and the Gambler is not Newcomb:
1.b.i.>Newcomb claims the Survivalist and is not counterclaimed. We have witnessed Newcomb survive a kill so he is most likely village here.

Don't care.

1.b.ii.>Someone else claims Survivalist and Newcomb is the last witch.***

Unlikely.

2.a.i.>Survivalist does not claim. Manasi was exactly the Survivalist.

OK, but how does this help finding the last witch? I guess it shows that the Survivalist is Manasi eh. Does a massclaim help give us more information in this world? This is a valid choice if you can sell me why knowing Manasi's role is good.

2.a.ii.>Survivalist claims and is not Manasi. The Hunter is the final witch because Manasi has no way to survive a kill, we mass claim for a win.
*If Manasi was NOT Fanatic and the Gambler is not Newcomb: (this is the same as if Manasi was Fanatic and Gambler is not Newcomb)

Sure. This is a good scenario.

2.b.i.>Newcomb claims the Survivalist and is not counterclaimed. We have witnessed Newcomb survive a kill so he is most likely village here. The Hunter is the last witch, we mass claim for victory.

Sure. This is also a good scenario.

2.b.ii>Someone else claims Survivalist and Newcomb is the last witch.***

Sure, unlikely.

*If Manasi was NOT Fanatic and the Gambler is Manasi:
2.c.i.>Newcomb claims Survivalist and is not counterclaimed. He is a villager. We cannot be sure whether or not the Hunter is the last witch. Hunter must claim so we can figure it out.

OK, but how does this help finding the last witch? I guess it shows that Gambler is Manasi eh. Does a massclaim help give us more information in this world? This is a valid choice if you can sell me why knowing Manasi's role is good.

2.c.ii.>Someone else claims Survivalist and Newcomb is the last witch.***

Sure, unlikely.

tl;dr: I need to know why knowing Manasi's role is good or in both low-information scenarios that this has a positive impact.
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I haven't looked at whether all this logic is correct but I'm going to assume it is for now.

 

Like, I think Newcomb is town so it's easy for me

If Newcomb is Gambler, either Manasi is the Survivalist or the Hunter is a witch.
If Newcomb is Survivalist, either Manasi is Gambler, her teammate is Gambler, or Hunter is a witch.

I just felt like I had to spend like 9,000 words of exploring all possible options I guess? Lol.
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@Disquieted what it comes down to is that if the Gambler or Survivalist opposite Newcomb is not Manasi, they could also be a witch, sure I guess.

At that point we PoE down scummy people. We don't need a mass claim to do that.

The only thing is, pinning Manasi's role removes a role from the PoE of roles which I think is just as, if not more important than the PoE of people. Because when people die especially if GD or UT are killed, we won't know their role without a prior massclaim and we can potentially be misled on that. But if we pin down Manasi's role not only do we make it so that there's one less role for her teammate to claim, but we also lock Newcomb as town in the process and make our lives a LOT simpler.
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I really just think it's an easy world. Newcomb witch or Hunter witch with scum not having any protective roles is just like, they really pulled out some 1000 IQ plays just to have 3/4 of their team get steamrolled. Come on, it's probably simple.

 

Yeah, noted. I appreciate that and I see slight benefit then.

 

Manasi could be Fanatic?

 

I don't understand why Kai busses Jarizok, friends.

What is the advantage Kai gets? What's going through his mind when he clicks on the Post Reply button that posts a case? What's his thought process?

Given that we know Manasi is mafia, and she didn't even care about the lynch, and tom is mafia, and he tried a decent amount to lynch his fluffiness from my understanding. What's kai doing pressing the submit button on a case damning his buddy?

Maybe I'm misunderstanding the context of where kai made his case, maybe it was significantly afterwards. But I would like this question asked at least.

 

Cobalt, how does your plan account for the following facts:

1) Witches were dealt 5 roles and tossed one, so they likely have one role that is 100% fakeclaimable safely.

2) Witches have not one but two ways to fake a shot on Manasi, both IK and just Role Killing her but naming the wrong role

What roles are even left that aren't provable? LC, Judge, Nurse, DoB are all provable.

When it really comes down to it, I'm just not seeing how this is going to make our lives simpler. Let's say we somehow prove Hunter is a witch role. Okay? Then we massclaim and Hunter's not there. Where does that leave us except at "back where we started except now the last witch can kill two people a night guaranteed"?

 

Yes Fluff.... I'm aware.

I only spent like 3 hours of my life writing out all the possible alternatives.
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Okay, I'm gonna slam dunk your life right now and tell you that I'm 90% sure my Oracle fake claim was the role the witches threw out and so they now HAVE no safe fake claims.

 

@Newcomb, realistically, there are about 4 roles unknown to witches, along with Disquieted/Vaimes who have a known role but not a known color (and thus wouldn't claim in case of a mass claim). And those 4 roles are concentrated mostly among people in the poe. (This is assuming all current claims are true)

Is not mass claiming really a huge difference?
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And as I say that...

 

The thinking is that at the time he made the case, the way the wind was blowing it was still pretty likely shadow was going to get lynched, so he'd get the cred without actually getting a buddy killed. Kai has a pretty good sense of who's voices carry weight, and I could see him thinking that his case wasn't going to be enough.

I will grant you, though, that it was a very good case. I'm not immune to where you're coming from.

 

what.

 

I want you all to react to that before I post my drafted explanation.

:v

 

Cobalt... that's cheating.

 

I've ruminated about it and I was originally going to sit on this information if Tom was a witch, but now I've decided it's in the best interests of the rest of town to inform you that I am the DoB, not the Oracle.

I felt Shadow was low hanging fruit the entire game and eventually when mid-D2 was pretty stale, I voted him just to be like whatever, but then suddenly was sparked with the idea to shake things up. At first I asked Newcomb that IF I was the Oracle and had a green on Shadow, who would his next target be? I hedged it at first but when the reactions to it seemed really good, I hard claimed it. I felt strongly about Tom or Fluff being a witch and their reactions to the Oracle claim was what I was looking for from a witch reaction.

In addition, I felt Oracle was safe to claim without being countered because after looking at the list of claims and seeing that Oracle was on the list of unclaimed roles but it was looking more and more like Oracle would've been randed witch with 3/4 witch roles still not being accounted for, I figured it was the absolute top candidate for a role that the witches would've just thrown out and swapped, because getting 1 vanilla out of the hunt for priest is not as valuable as defense/offense/other info roles. So I initially worried about a counterclaim but then justified it to myself that I probably was not going to be counterclaimed.

I felt strongly about Tom being a witch and planned to reveal all of this if it came out that Tom was town because I'd want to admit my mistake and be able to have the rest of the thread know the truth because I could've just been wrong about Shadow and if you still wanted to lynch him after Tom flipped town I wouldn't object. But Tom flipping witch vindicated me and I thought about sitting on it for the rest of the game for it to be a surprise to witches, because I felt even stronger about Shadow as town after witch Tom was revealed.

But I figured since Newcomb brought up that the witches having a safe claimable role interfered with my plan, I would point out that I very likely eliminated that safe fake claim from the game through this gambit, cleared Shadow as town, and slam dunked a witch in the process.

Cobalt 3. Witches 0. GOAT.

So in my mind, Shadow is town. I guess he could be a POSSIBLE witch, but not a very probable one. I'd put him at the very top of the PoE as in the last person to be considered in a lynch pool because Tom wanted him dead and it's extremely doubtful he'd hardbus his other teammate after Manasi got red checked.

 

I don't understand why the last witch wouldn't counterclaim you there heh.

I guess I'm not gonna argue?

 

So, yes there's a world in which I'm a witch and Shadow is town, MECHANICALLY. Or a world in which I'm town and Shadow is a witch and I was just wrong. But the first one of those is nonexistent and the second is extremely unlikely.

However, you also always leave me alive until MYLO/LYLO so you can't lynch me anyways.

Suck on that, witches.

 

I actually thought this out and I thought about maybe the witches didn't know that the role they threw out couldn't also be randed to town afterward? Like maybe they thought they got to choose before the rest of the roles got randed. Idk.

It's also plausible Oracle saw EXACTLY what I was doing and was actually on board with it, in which case fuck yes, let's get married for that brainvibe.
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And also, the witch who counterclaimed me would be outing themselves to me. It was so likely that witches threw that role out, and they knew I knew it was likely, so counterclaiming me is just telling me "I know you're not the Oracle because we traded that" and there's no reason to out themselves like that.
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Anyway, I'm extremely pleased with the way my gambit turned out and I hope you'll all just proceed with my original Fanatic/Gambler/Survivalist plan once the dust settles from this.
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#Cobalt4DLPChamps2019

 

But who do you think then?

I also bussed Jarizok.

Mplus had a crucial choice of who to vote between Jari/Shadow and chose Jari.

So you're basically just leaving Fluff unless you think Mplus's decision doesn't count as much as a planned bus.

Though also remember, Kai made that case way before Manasi or tom became huge suspects? Manasi had some suspicion halfway through day 1, tom didn't really.
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Um.
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...So can we lynch Shadow now?

 

From my understanding tom was a wagon.

I don't think it's really necessary to say "who then" because there should be a logical answer to this if Kai is the last witch. That's not how process of elimination works.