If we don’t get rid of Manasi today, let’s say we mislynch. 10:2 becomes 9:2. Night kill makes 8:2 SoD 4.

Mislynch D4 makes it 7:2, night kill makes it 6:2. Mislynch D5 makes it 5:2, night kill makes it 4:2. We make it to day six and potentially have both DoB and LC alive which is not ideal because 4:2 is MYLO which is when DoB is resolve.

....actually, wait, this narrows the PoE better than the last plan.
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Plan 1 - LC Manasi

1/5 eliminated from PoE D3.
2/5 eliminated from PoE D4.
3/5 eliminated from PoE D5.
D6 only happens if there’s an angel save somewhere. Maybe not ideal?

Plan 2 - Lynch in PoE, keep Manasi

1/5 eliminated from PoE D3.
2/5 eliminated from PoE D4.
3/5 eliminated from PoE D5.
4/5 eliminated from PoE D6, in MYLO if no saves with a Cobalt lynch.

This is from my perspective so I’m not accounting for myself in the PoE but basically worst case scenario is that I have a 50/50 shot at the last witch during MYLO, if no angel saves happen and if we keep the LC alive without triggering.

But asking for an LC claim could also catch us the last witch, even if the numbers wouldn’t be the most ideal.

Hmmmm.

Pls advise.

 

Yeah, it's def faster to just do the LC claim now. Advantage of slow plan is I could tell you who we kill on Day 4 or if we can't save me on day 4, we know it's because there are 3 dead witches and we just have to kill Manasi

 

Here’s a third option:

We keep Manasi and lynch from the PoE, but we ask the LC to trigger on someone else in the PoE at any point.

Say we mislynch today, that’s 9:2. Night kill makes 8:2, 1/5 in PoE gone. D 4 we have the LC trigger on someone else in the PoE, making 6:2 if no hits and 3/5 gone from PoE. NK makes 5:2, we mislynch again to make 4:2. NK makes 3:2 which is LYLO, I have to trigger on Manasi but then the last witch gets 2 potential kills which could end the game.

So actually this isn’t ideal.

 

If muz isn't killed tonight, that pretty much tells us he must be bad so then we know 4/4
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Why not just agree who we want the LC to kill (not manasi) and have them trigger that kill today instead of Day 4?

 

Faster to do LC claim, yes. Ideal for amount of mislynches we’d get to finish the PoE? Not necessarily.

But honestly I don’t think we lose the game by getting 4/5 in the PoE wrong in a row like that just seems pretty unrealistic so maybe we should just have the LC pop Manasi, that’s probably still optimal.

Yeah, that.

 

Wh

Nah, now you have me convinced it's more optimal to have LC pop a PoE today

 

Because we have to use a lynch that we need to be using to narrow the PoE to lynch Manasi.

We don’t get as many people eliminated from PoE in the long run.
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Like if LC yeets a villager, 10:2 becomes 8:2 which becomes 7:2 at the start of D3. At what point do we lynch Manasi and potentially trigger last stand?

We won’t know when the fourth witch will be dead if we kill them before Manasi so last stand could come as a surprise and end the game before we finish the PoE.
--- Post automerged ---
D5 7:2. We mislynch. D6 5:2. Here we lynch me and I kill Manasi because if we miss we lose. So 5:2 becomes 4:1, but two NKs brings us to 2:1 LYLO with a F3 with no DoB. That isn’t ideal.

 

That's not necessarily true. We decide who is the prime PoE and have LC lynch them. That's 2 PoE dead. Muz dies overnight. He's cleared. We then gradually kill down are PoE. DOB can kill Manasi whenever
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*our

 

Unless both musketeers die at the same time, we do still have an extra kill somewhere in there.

 

But that means I get lynched which doesn’t eliminate from my PoE of 5, to get rid of Manasi to end up with 2 people in the PoE in F3 if no angel saves.
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OH SHIT, I forgot about that.
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Yeah we should have LC yeet a PoE today. If at any point during PoE we get two kills we lynch Manasi.
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Musketeer kill although it could trim the numbers gives us an extra chance to pop the last witch.

So LCing Manasi is actually doable, and LCing someone in the PoE is probably optimal.
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OR

Ok I’ve got it.

We have LC kill a PoE, let Musketeer kill take care of Manasi whenever it gets triggered, and save DoB for MYLO/LYLO.

 

Does knowing that 3 kill roles still have a kill and there will be either 1 or 2 extra lives floating around affect anything?

 

Current death total: 2 witches, 1 angel
Today day 3: lynch 2 PoE w/ LC (either 2 townies die, or 1 townie and 1 witch); nurse gives muz an extra life
Night 3: Either A) 3 dead witches, 3 angels and can't protect muz so muz dies or B) 2 dead witches, 4 angels who protects muz so muz lives
--Either way at the end of the night, we know if we've killed 3 witches or if we still have to find Manasi's partner

 

That does basically auto lose us the game if muzjik is scum.

 

Fine, alternative:

Current death total: 2 witches, 1 angel
Today day 3: lynch 1 PoE
Night 3: Either A) 3 dead witches, 1 angel or 2)2 witches, 2 angels; Muz is murdered either way
Day 4: Murder PoE; nurse gives me and xtra life
Night 4: Either A) 3 dead witches, 3 angels or B) 2 dead witches, 4 angels
—If I die, we know angels didn’t have majority to protect me and that there are 3 dead witches; if I live, know our murdered PoEs are townie.

 

That does basically auto lose us the game if Umami is scum.

 

You can say that for literally anyone. Also, that gives us plenty of kills before last stand so you can always murder me later. At least when you murder me you'll know the role of who was murdered Day 4 and have more information to work with. Also, if I die Night 4, you kill Manasi next and if it doesn't trigger last stand then that gives you a lot of info too

 

You all know Last Stand isn’t compulsory, right? Like, more power to the last one if they want to forego it to confuse worldbuilding, but they do have that option.

I think it’s time to turn away from the mechanical discussion and start talking about worlds independent of optimal kill strategy.

 

I still want Fanatic and Survivalist claims.

 

+1

I'm not either of those!

 

I'm not either of these.

Also I'd guess everyone is reminded why it's been two years since the last WH (which was also WH9)