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WitchHunt 9

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Miner, Mar 29, 2019.

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  1. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    Disquieted you seemed to have some issues with my "mafia theory" last night (i.e. when I talked about how witches would bus, you essentially said that I was saying all wolves must bus or they'll die), but you seem to be doing the same thing here. Why did tom "let himself" get lynched? No wolf "lets themselves" get lynched. But tom became a suspect, he didn't have enough time for this game to work and dig himself out apparently, he posted as much as he could, pushed someone, did some research about Cobalt/Shadow, posted readslists, etc. I don't know what other effort he could've really made. Why can't that be the limit of what he did to save himself?
     
  2. KaiDASH

    KaiDASH High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    Yes
     
  3. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    For the record you won't get any disagreement from me about how Mplus and Kai seem town. Fluff I'm not like 100% sold on even with the tom thing but it doesn't seem likely. So I agree everyone is town. I don't want to rehash but I'd argue that my push on Jari is just as good as Mplus's vote or Kai's but if you disagree, honestly, don't bring it up 'cause I don't wanna get into it. >_>

    The role stuff is over my head and trying to figure out a scum in Mplus/Kai/maybefluff is also over my head so, again, not to repeat myself, I'm fine with anything (including myself dying) and just don't have anything to add.
     
  4. Disquieted

    Disquieted Muggle

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    That is exactly what I'm doing here Dels, yes.
     
  5. KaiDASH

    KaiDASH High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    I dislike Cobalt angling to get himself lynched as late as possible (as part of 'a plan') because that gives him ample opportunity to talk himself out of getting lynched at all. All things considered (mostly that GD/UT are getting nk'd if town if they'd learn anything of use), DOB and LC are the fucntionally the same role, so I'm reading this as extremely motivated, and it's obviously the only line the Witch team has to win if Cobalt is a witch.
     
  6. Disquieted

    Disquieted Muggle

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    This is his last post in the game and I don't see how this isn't pocketing a member of the village. I guess.
     
  7. Gemma

    Gemma Fourth Year

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    Votal

    shadow (2): Dels, Newcomb
    Kai (1): Umami
     
  8. Vaimes

    Vaimes Fourth Year

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    I’m glad someone else said the thing.
     
  9. Umami

    Umami Muggle

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    Sorry, not lolcatting or whatever, but just saw this and thought of Manasi's post:
    [​IMG]
     
  10. Disquieted

    Disquieted Muggle

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    So why does Cobalt not hold onto his Oracle claim for the rest of eternity, then?
     
  11. Vaimes

    Vaimes Fourth Year

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    In a vacuum, DoB claim is a mostly guaranteed ticket to endgame, and Oracle is not.
    --- Post automerged ---
    I agree with Kai that it feels like Cobalt’s hammering it in that we can’t kill him, at minimum, until LyLo.

    But other than that I’m not really sure how much energy I want to pour into the offshoot “Cobalt is a Hail Mary-ing witch” world.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Because as impressive as it is if he’s telling the truth, what villager fake claims the role witches /maybe/ discarded? Especially a role that involves knowing the alignment of another person.
    --- Post automerged ---
    I say that because the potential blowback (a counterclaim from the real Oracle, regardless of alignment) of Cobalt’s credibility being ruined is extremely high. And the biggest thing giving me pause about all this is the claim that tom was a witch. If everything is as it says on the tin, then it all went absolutely perfectly, and that is raising a small red flag.

    I haven’t done the work to determine who would have to be coven for all this to have gone down as it did as a wild scum gambit. Just one of those “too good to be true” situations that I’m having a hard time just running with.
     
  12. KaiDASH

    KaiDASH High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    He couldn't have sat on the Oracle claim because that would leave nobody claiming DoB (and DoB is 100% going to be in the game). And so, in the event of a mass claim, it'd be instantly apparent that the last witch is the DoB that fakeclaimed, which would in turn townfirm a number of roles (since any role that can mechanically confirm itself cannot be a witch in a Jarizok / Tom / Manasi / DoB config).
    --- Post automerged ---
    Can you check me here since I'm working 100% off memory - the known roles (from Cobalt PoV) at the time he claimed yesterday would have been

    1. Fonti Priest
    2. Cobalt DOB
    3. Newcomb Defense
    4. muzjik GD
    5. Gemma Musket
    6. Vaimes Musket
    7. Jarizok Musket

    With all except Jarizok being 'lean town' or better, and Jazizok being scum, right?

    Open question to anyone here btw, not just Vaimes.
     
  13. Vaimes

    Vaimes Fourth Year

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    I’m working off memory too here. :V

    Cobalt dropped the facade after Umami claimed and revealed tom’s cards, I think?
    --- Post automerged ---
    And Cobalt was townreading everyone except Jarizok there, yeah. Maybe not Gemma? I’m a little unsure there.
     
  14. KaiDASH

    KaiDASH High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    No I mean when he claimed Oracle on day 2 what info was he working with
     
  15. Vaimes

    Vaimes Fourth Year

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    Oh, Oracle claim, not the rescinded claim.

    Hang on.
     
  16. KaiDASH

    KaiDASH High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    Ok whatever, let's assume I'm right.

    In the remaining 8 people, there are 9 roles, of which 5 belong to town and 4 belong to Witches.

    Which makes it a 55% chance that Oracle is town and a 45% chance its a Witch (and probably the dump role). Which makes me doubt that any work of the sort he describes here actually occured, and what it actually is is a retroactive nice looking justification.

    80% chance is 5 unknown roles, 4 of which belong to the witches, just to be clear. So that's wildly different from the reality of 9 unknown and 4 to the witches.

     
  17. Cobalt

    Cobalt Second Year

    Joined:
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    Yw
    --- Post automerged ---
    Ok so my math was probably wrong

    But I can technically quote my QT because it’s less than 2 game days since I posted.

    Hold on.
    --- Post automerged ---
    --- Post automerged ---
    That was after role hunting some of the other PoE but I chose a somewhat ambiguous portion so that I don’t spew myself clear, I don’t want to angleshoot.
    --- Post automerged ---
    I have a more specific post in my QT which outlined all the known/unknown roles and at the time it was 9 unknown roles, 3 of which were witches but I narrowed Shadow down to not a role that was supposed to claim if he was being run up, plus eliminated Oracle from Shadow because I didn’t feel his reaction was from a witch or from town Oracle. So it Shadow has a different role from the list it’s 8 people who are not Oracle, 3 are witches, and I also ISO’d people for potential green peeks and found very few posts that I’d even think of considering as earlygame crumbs.
    --- Post automerged ---
    I also was planning to rescind Oracle claim immediately if Tom flipped town because even on the off chance a witch UT was lying about it, I would want to come clean and put Shadow back on the table for those who wanted him lynched.

    But given that my gambit got exactly who I wanted lynched and that person was a witch I was going to sit on it until either endgame or massclaim.
    --- Post automerged ---
    So @KaiDASH after the work I did the 75-80% was kind of just a number I pulled out about my confidence level that it was the witch throwout.

    I think I said 80% in one post and 75-80% in another or maybe 70% somewhere so it definitely wasn’t a number I got to with math. I never actually did a statistical percentage for it, I don’t think.
     
  18. KaiDASH

    KaiDASH High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    I'm not sure if you're at 3 witch roles because you're discounting Jarizok AND yourself, or what.

    Normally I'd assume that you just dropped the spare role and was counting witch player numbers instead, but this entire thing is revolving around the Oracle being the Witch spare role so that'd be a hard sell.
     
  19. Cobalt

    Cobalt Second Year

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    I was pretty fearful of a counterclaim at first, but after looking at it and ISOing for greens I eliminated a lot of potential oracles from the PoE list and that made me feel a lot more confident that it was a witch role.

    It’s kind of something I did on the fly after my “what would you do if I hardclaimed Oracle with a green on Shadow” post had an instant reaction and I realized I should totally hardclaim that for a shakeup yesterDay in order to get Tom lynched.

    You can say what you must about the world in which I’m a witch but that means Umami is town and Tom was a witch and I have no need to use the throwout role for a big gambit just to get my teammate lynched, like that’s super brain dead even with Jarizok dead and Manasi checked.

    I don’t do Fable-style hardbussing as scum, I much prefer to work around and with my teammates. And that’s not even a hardbus, it’s a mechanical bus which would be much more risky.

    Plus I always get lynched at endgame so I really don’t know why you seem so worried. Are you the witch LC?
    --- Post automerged ---
    Like I’m specifically avoiding the urge to spew a specific post in my QT to get rid of this right now but I would much rather not be modkilled even though it was less than 2 cycles ago I don’t want to push it.
    --- Post automerged ---
    I didn’t even claim DoB in the drafted post I made in case Tom flipped town. I just claimed not a witch and not the Oracle and came clean and asked everyone to analyze Shadow based on his reactions to get a better read on whether or not he’s a witch, independently of how strongly I townread him that I was willing to stick my neck out like that.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Because I didn’t want to out I was DoB until mass claim or endgame, but I felt it was prudent today in case anyone was tempted to snaplynch me for lying.
     
  20. shadowlancerx

    shadowlancerx Muggle

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    I’m pretty in favor of the LC targeting exactly Manasi here; there’s a world I don’t think anyone has mentioned (and would be pretty outlandish anyway) where manasi is a defensive role at the last scum is the hunter that shot Fonti and fake killed Manasi. Which would be disastrous if we got to endgame and lost because of that.
    --- Post automerged ---
    I’ll fight anyone who tries to say witch!cobalt is actually this crazy and has this much WIM. I’d happily lose to that.
     
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