Witch summary at this point is

Jarizok OR Muzjik
Tom OR Umami
Manasi
*UNKNOWN*

With the note that at least one of Jarizok & Tom is a witch, and Jarizok is almost certainly a witch.

Which makes Cobalt + Umami a plausible world actually, since Cobalt & Shadow are no longer linked. I don't think that that's been noted by anyone and that's certainly A Thing.

I'm not going to chat with Cobalt about whether or not he could be a witch, as that's obviously pointless. I'm happy to talk it over with others though.
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I mentioned that it could be hunter + defensive, though not in any detail.

In that world we know all the roles that the Witches have AND we can townfirm everyone who has a mechnically confirmable role because they can't be a witch, and Witches just lose to a massclaim because their spare role is Oracle it would seem, so if this is an actual concern we can just test by lynching Manasi. Then if he survives massclaim the next day and it's literally a can't lose scenario.

If Manasi does die then it's just continuing busienss as usual.

Also, losing happens, sometimes, but at this point writing off a scenario as an acceptable L is absurd.

 

LC targeting in PoE is acceptable because we can narrow it down faster to finding Manasi’s partner. I crunched all the numbers a few pages ago.
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@KaiDASH so I know DoB is traditionally endgamed but I’m also open to hearing strats like chainlinking LC onto me and me into Manasi if the numbers work out that way and if it gets us the greatest chance of winning fastest. We can talk about that scenario numbers-wise?
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Say we chainlink LC onto me and me into Manasi.

If LC is a witch and doesn’t do it, we mass claim for the ezclap win. If LC is town, and complies, we lose two townies and one witch today, which goes 10:2 to 8:1. Two potential NKs is 6:1, a mislynch in PoE is 5:1, and then two potential NKs barring angel saves is 3:1. If we add a musketeer mis-kill, that’s 2:1 LYLO right there which actually is not bad odds.

I’m kind of open to this strat.
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Worst case scenario of the game going to f3, not ending early, in a few cycles is actually the most ideal world in numbers that I’ve crunched so far.

Me being in F3 is the MOST ideal, because then I have a personal 50/50, but that doesn’t work out in any other world we’ve crunched that considers last stand. If last stand is unpredictable, and can trigger if we leave Manasi alive as soon as we get her teammate, it could be a nasty surprise that winds up losing us the game.

I think I’d rather trigger it now while we have the numbers and doing a chain link LC-DoB-Manasi is the best way because if I’m technically in your PoEs, it gets rid of two AND makes the numbers with all worst case double night kills + a musketeer miss end up in a F3. If they kill both musketeers at once, that’s a F4 LYLO with no extra PoE shot. Which also isn’t... BAD, chance-wise of PoEing down the final witch because in this world we know the team is exactly Jarizok/Tom/Manasi/x when last stand is triggered toNight.

@Newcomb @Vaimes @his fluffiness - thoughts?? I figured I’d propose something that’d alleviate Kai’s worries while also being mechanically optimal.
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There’s 5 in my PoE and 5 to everyone else in the PoE, if you include myself even though I’d be at insane levels of FPS as a witch right now. 6 to people who are not in the PoE.

M+7
Fluff
Kai
Dels
Shadow

If one is LC and triggers on me and I get Manasi, that’s 2 out of the PoE right there. D4 lynch is 3 out of the PoE, and a musketeer mis-kill is 4 out of the PoE. That leaves us in F3 with two people in the overall objective PoE left, maybe not ideal but pretty good chances of just being solved by then with 4 PoE people dead in most likely order. I doubt we miss 5 shots in a row.

Let me objectively compare to the LC directly lynches Manasi plan, with DoB in the endgame. For MY PoE.

One is removed from PoE with the LC lynching Manasi. 9:1. Two NKs, 7:1, mislynch removes 2/5 from PoE, 6:1, two NK's and a musketeer miskill removes 3/5 from the PoE and we're at 3:1 which is LYLO under last stand, two people left on the PoE and I as town have a 50/50 shot.

I'm more comfortable with that, actually, because I'd rather trust myself knowing I'm town than a townie + one person in the PoE to make the decision in F3. But I ALWAYS am lynched at the F4, which alleviates me from the PoE and still eliminates 5/6 from the objective PoE total, the PoE with myself in it.

What are y'alls thoughts on these?
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Side note; in this scenario we always lose to a witch Musketeer so that's something to be taken into consideration... I guess?
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Like, if all of the PoE are actually town and the last witch is also a Musketeer, Manasi had a protective role and so the witch isn't Hunter, they kept two musketeers over Oracle which makes a ton of sense because then they get an extra KP if they get rid of town musketeer and one of them die.

Getting the Fanatic + Survivalist claims to pin Manasi's role can eliminate this world as a possibility, so I'd like that to happen please.
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Plus, I'm not accounting for strats like the nurse buffing Newcomb so that he can tank an extra shot on even nights. The F4 with me having a 50/50 shot is literally the worst case scenario which comes from ZERO saves, which is kind of unlikely.

It's more likely that we get a save which would put us at a F5 with me as DoB which is MYLO, we no lynch and go to F3 with JUST ME and two PoE, which is a clear 50/50 shot. The only disadvantage to this is that I have to choose myself and I don't get an extra townclear in F4 to deliberate with, but it also eliminates witch Musketeer world because that would probably be the person left with me in F4 and I'd probably get paranoid.
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Aaaaaah, fuck, I forgot about Survivalist being in the PoE. We will need a KP to get rid of that extra life.

PLS ADVISE.
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Kai: Not Fanatic
Dels: Not Fanatic
Fluff: Not Fanatic

One of M+7 / Shadow, or Manasi.

@shadowlancerx - please claim Fanatic or Not Fanatic.
@M Plus 7 - please claim Fanatic or Not Fanatic.
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Nvm, Shadow claimed not fanatic.

Just need M Plus if he ever wants to show back up.
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@KaiDASH what are your current thoughts about my whole wall?
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Like, mechanically we can do the LC onto Manasi or the LC onto me onto Manasi and have similar PoE results, objectively.

For me, LC onto Manasi is better because my PoE is one person smaller.

But I think FIRST, we get the Fanatic/Survivalist claims because 1 out of 4 worlds that we're in has Hunter as the last witch, CONFIRMABLE through these claims, and we mass claim for the win.

Then we do the LC shot, because LC as the last witch is confirmable through not triggering onto either me or Manasi, and we mass claim for the win.

Last witch as either of those roles would either claim a PoE role not claimed yet or counterclaim someone if they're last, giving us a 50/50 and the numbers to resolve that either today or tomorrow, a ZERO-risk win.

Like, there are 5 roles in the PoE, and 2 of them could be CONFIRMED witches today if we do the Fanatic/Survivalist claims and then the LC plan. Those are really good odds.
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I'm starting to get super frustrated that nobody's around to break up this wall.

Pls help.

Someone.

Anyone?
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If you're in obs chat, filler me. I don't even care.

Someone help.

@Miner

HALP.

 

I’ll break up your wall
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At work and in general I’m just pretty sure we just need to lynch through the PoE at this stage, but yeah, I think you being the last lynch is ideal if we get that far, and Manasi being killed sooner than later is probably better to prevent a FPS loss.

 

THANK YOU SHADOW. I KNEW I COULD BELIEVE IN YOU.

@M Plus 7 a separate post and a separate tag, please claim Fanatic or Not Fanatic as soon as possible.

At this point it's either M Plus or Manasi and I'd really like to know which.

I would like to finalize the Fanatic / Survivalist claims before asking the LC to pop Manasi, but I think that's what we go with for today.

 

I'm with you, Kai. Cobalt being scum would be pretty darn weird but I don't really think it's any of the others so I can't say I'd deny the possibility. I don't wanna fall into a trap of thinking that only town can have WIM or that it's impossible for a scum to plan a gambit like this. It's still unlikely I guess, though.
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Also those suggesting Vaimes could be scum should maybe take a look at Jari's day 1 progression again? Doesn't look w/w to me, especially with Jari ending on Vaimes.
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Also, Cobalt does seem to continually be advocating for plans that end in his death. Could be a bluff, I suppose, but isn't it proper play to lynch the D.O.B. at lylo/mylo anyway? So, it should be fine either way, right?

 

Yes Dels, it should be fine, Kai is just being paranoid.

Kai is forgetting that almost every scumgame I've had on DLP I've lost other than RWBY and only because Fable hardbussed literally the entire team. It's super easy for me to get demotivated and I personally don't think I've grown as a player enough to launch this HUGE FPS after my whole team got steamrolled. I'd be pretty done with the game.

I even worked it out with me in the PoE just to be safe, but numbers-wise we get to kill all but 1 person in the PoE by the end of the game and I doubt we don't hit the last witch by then.
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And, we increase our odds by killing them in the order of which they're most likely teamed with Jari/Tom/Manasi

I want Shadow done last, but >__>
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I even explored a plan that gets me dead TODAY just for Kai's peace of mind but it's probably not ideal in the long run after comparing it side-by-side with the one that just LC's Manasi.
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I mean, we have no other choice but to wait for M Plus 7 to figure out Fanatic.

Like, this is pretty dumb that he's just MIA when we need his claim. Could just be scum.

 

tfw when mplus is the last scum and we've just been doing... whatever it is we're doing

 

It's not a bad thing to spend a lot of time considering options and doing mechanical analysis.

I think the play here is always to pop LC onto Manasi, so if they don't do it we mass claim and lynch them for the win.

 

As long as you're having fun! That's all that matters.

 

Hmm.

 

Care to weigh in?

 

caught up

bored

thanks,

Muzjik
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We're getting caught up in the weeds with all this mechanics talk.

I haven't seen an actual case or analysis in a while.
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Thoughts on gamestate?

Who are you scumreading and why?

 

Why should we bother ISO trawling at this moment when there are ways to near guarantee a win
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Like we got 3/4 by day 3

Ezclap, lets just win now thx
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I will say I’m kind of pinged by Umami’s “have the nurse life me” post

Once the game is down to the wire and mass claims are out we need less info from GD/UT so there are much better people/roles to buff.
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Like I’d much rather life Newcomb so he can tank an extra shot plus angel protects

Indestructible Newcomb carry me pls
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Seriously?

 

@Newcomb

You're quiet.

Penny for thoughts?

 

@Vaimes

You're one to talk.

Opinion on Fanatic/Survivalist claims and LC popping Manasi today according to the numbers I crunched?

 

Cobalt, the amount of work you’re putting into the game is admirable, but I don’t find mechanics talk like this particularly engaging. It’s not my flavor of fun.

That said, I’m for those roles claiming.

 

I too don't understand the mechanical stuff but why does the LC have to take out Manasi today? Is it because since the LC is unclaimed, they must be in the PoE anyway so there's no reason for them not to sort themselves out?

Can't we just lynch someone in the PoE so that we keep saving Manasi for last? The LC could even kamikaze into someone else in the PoE, right?

 

Don't know why you're linking me to cobalt. I thought cobalt was super sketchy and have been calling him out with dels since he claimed oracle.

 

When is deadline?
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Ah. It’s not today. Carry on.