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WitchHunt 9

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Miner, Mar 29, 2019.

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  1. Umami

    Umami Muggle

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    Are you 100% sure Newcomb is good? Also Cobalt like I'm so obviously town this game it's sort of ridiculous. Like let's be a real, I'm a noob and I made noob mistakes. In terms of being a next level player that tricked you and made it to the end, Newcomb is a much bigger threat than me. Also, Newcomb is not an information role and cannot provide you with 100% info. The plan I proposed for getting info on Night 4 has the advantage of letting us know if 3 witches are dead early on enough that we can shoot Manasi a million times before the game ends so extra lives are irrelevant and that we don't trigger last stand super early so we get more shots at our PoE list. It also gives us enough time that we can even shoot me just for fun. I think it's ultimately the safest, most conservative plan, which translates to slowest, and given that we have 2 dead witches and 1 identified witch, I think taking a riskier plan is worth saving time. That said, if we lose because we trigger last stand early, don't have any townie information roles, and get played, I'll feel a little bad that we lost purely out of wanting the game to end sooner. But that's pretty low odds.
     
  2. Newcomb

    Newcomb Headmaster

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    I can't really see myself putting any serious thought into this game unless it's still continuing after we kill shadow and manasi.
     
  3. Cobalt

    Cobalt Second Year

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    Aug 29, 2015
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    Wow, this is the most I've seen from you all game and it's because I said you pinged me.

    That's kind of amusing.

    Also, if you'll read what I've discussed carefully, each plan I outlined DOES get the most out of our PoE list. Lynching conservatively and leaving Manasi alive for Last Stand to be a surprise is not a good idea.
     
  4. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    "stop tunneling shadow" :rolleyes:
     
  5. Umami

    Umami Muggle

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    meh, I outlined several vote counts earlier and have been responding pretty consistently. I think actually creating two different plans, one w/ LC going off and nurse giving muz and extra life and one w/ saving LC and nurse giving me an extra life and going through afterlife counts and outcomes was way more in depth/the most anyone has seen from me. This is all just text blocks. I think the plans count for more
    --- Post automerged ---
    But seriously, we all agree LC should claim and end the day ASAP right?
     
  6. Cobalt

    Cobalt Second Year

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    Aug 29, 2015
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    77
    Okay I'm starting to get a little frustrated.

    Can you just like, for one minute, give me a little bit of credit? I pulled off one of the most successful gambits I've ever done in my mafia career and turned the D2 lynch from Shadow to Tom, who was a witch as I suspected. I did it because THAT is how strongly I felt Shadow was town and being tunneled by town and scum alike. Nothing I've seen has done anything to reverse that read, it's only made it stronger, and I've put tons of hours into literally solving the game and you're just gonna hands off until the one person who I worked my ASS off to save (and lynched a witch in the process) is dead?

    If my reads were so ass backwards wrong we never would have lynched Tom in the first fucking place, you're welcome. NOT ONLY THAT, but claims and strategy that could potentially solve the game TODAY have been painstakingly outlined for you AND I took the ONLY safe fake claim away from the witches through hard work, analysis, and a little bit of luck, and you're unwilling to just help me go from here. For Christ's sake, at least TRY and work with me here and contribute something other than "I don't wanna put thought into the game". And start considering people OTHER THAN SHADOW.

    What a copout.
    --- Post automerged ---
    No. I want MP7 to claim Fanatic or Not Fanatic so we can pin down Manasi's role first.

    If the Hunter is the last witch I want that avenue explored today because we could end the game a hell of a lot quicker.
    --- Post automerged ---

    You can also cut the shit, honestly.

    I need to take a break.
     
  7. Umami

    Umami Muggle

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    Btw, @Cobalt where are you from?
    --- Post automerged ---
    Trying to imagine what accent for your angry rant
     
  8. Cobalt

    Cobalt Second Year

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    Like I've spent hours. Literal, real world hours, building worlds and putting in work and doing everything I can to figure out how to solve the game and I've come up with several different plans that can potentially expose TWO different roles out of the PoE for being a witch. Today. Game over. That's it.

    Even if any of you ACTUALLY, HONESTLY, SERIOUSLY BELIEVE I could still be a witch, that's 2/6 people remaining that could be a witch, 1/3 of the remaining potential witch players that could be CAUGHT. TODAY.

    Why do NONE OF YOU CARE.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Lawn Guyland.
    --- Post automerged ---
    And for me that's a 40% chance that we literally win right now and not only is one of the PoE still conveniently MIA but do you all not see the reason why when I've figured something out to that extent and you all collectively just go "meh, I'm bored, I don't waaaanna play" and want to just lynch my top town for the luls is SERIOUSLY FUCKING TILTING?
    --- Post automerged ---
    If Manasi is not the Fanatic or the Survivalist then the Hunter is the final witch.

    If the LC does not cooperate and pop on Manasi before EoD they are the final witch.

    We should resolve Manasi today with LC while we have the numbers for a couple cycles of Last Stand.

    That's it, do what you want with it, I'm done trying if nobody else wants to try. Peace out.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Also don't nurse any of the info roles it's -EV when claims are happening and once Manasi is dead we won't need to know if a person was a villager because the game will just continue

    That is all
     
  9. Dels

    Dels Muggle

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    I'm sorry you feel underappreciated.

    I think you've done a lot of great work.

    But, like I've said a dozen times, the mechanical stuff is over my head, I can't understand it or even begin to, and besides that, I think every person in the game is town besides Shadow, so I don't have anything to say about anyone else in the PoE.

    I've not-claimed the role you asked, and I'm voting the person I want to vote, and there is just nothing else for me to do.
     
  10. Vaimes

    Vaimes Fourth Year

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2014
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    111
    What Dels said.

    It's the same reason people (like me) complain about excessive wallposting, and each individual will play within the bounds of what they consider to be fun while maintaining sufficient activity/content levels so other people can get a read on them.

    If all of your posts can be summarized as "let's LC Manasi, unless the LC is the last witch," then that's all that we really need to hear.

    I don't want to poo poo on your effort. I know it took a lot of IRL time for you to do it, but you're going to have a hard time expecting a similar level of uh. Gusto from anyone else. This is a game, not a grad school thesis.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Anyway, it looks like we're kinda in limbo until M7 shows up or is replaced.
     
  11. Gemma

    Gemma Fourth Year

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    the epicenter of a male tear
    AYAYA Votal

    shadow (2): Dels, Newcomb
    Kai (1): Umami
     
  12. muzjik

    muzjik Muggle

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    Cobalts Oracle claim confuses me. Not sure why that's a good play for either alignment. Not sure why claiming made sense as town, not sure why rescinding made sense as scum. Fuck.
    --- Post automerged ---
    And yet, you could have been outing the town Oracle.
     
  13. Cobalt

    Cobalt Second Year

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    Aug 29, 2015
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    Oh my god as if I haven’t written literal essays about why I did what I did

    ISO me and read every single one of my posts and then we’ll talk
    --- Post automerged ---
    Yes it was risky but it paid off. The end
     
  14. Newcomb

    Newcomb Headmaster

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    Echoing Vaimes and Dels, I'm not shitting on your effort, I just don't really philosophically agree with the way you've approached this game. If you're being straight up with us, and if shadow is a villager, then your play will have worked out and been a net gain. But the fact that it might have worked out isn't a good argument in favor of it being a good thing to do in the first place. I'm not really in the mood to argue with you, we can save that for after the game if you like, but it's a process vs. results thing.

    All the mechanics stuff you've done today, good on ya. I appreciate your drive here, I really do.

    My perspective on the mechanics here is that in 99% of the worlds, manasi had an extra life last night, Hunter of either alignment shot her. I don't think we really gain much information via your claim strat unless witches had Hunter, shot fonti or holstered, and IK'd / Role Killed manasi, and there's no reason for them to do that, at all. I pretty strongly believe that if they did actually have Hunter and were okay outing the role as a witch, they'd have just shot a villager.

    Your mechanics are too rigid, IMO. You're trying to force the last pieces of the puzzle via mechanics, and this setup is designed to get you to 90% sure and not 100%. None of this is going to get us to 100%. Last Stand is optional. Sure, if we kill a witch here and go into the night with 1 alive, and the last witch decides to Role Kill Umami and Muz, sure, that hard confirms 1 alive, it hard confirms the Jari/tom/whoever we lynched world, etc etc. They don't need to do that. They can play it a couple ways. I think we should stop coaching them and stop tipping our hand as to what kills / night information we're going to consider clearing for who, back off the mechanics, and just dial it back to basics.

    The only real point of contention we have, other than that, is the shadow read.

    Your main point seems to be that he reacted to your greencheck / retraction of the greencheck exactly how you expected a villager to. I just disagree with that. I'm not calling you bad or dumb, I just have a different perspective. I say that shadow reacted to both new pieces of information with an initial burst of energy, and then flat cratered back to the non-entity he's been all game. I don't think that's consistent with a villager who's been given a new lease on life, I think that's consistent with a wolf who knows the green-check is FPS / temporary.

    You could be right that he's just having an extremely off / LHF type villager game. Who do you want to lynch instead? Fluff, who's like, really really unaligned with tom? Kai, who spitroasted Jarizok instead of going for shadow, who'd be a villager in this world? MP7, who actually voted for Jari over shadow at a crucial moment? Think Umami/Muz is fake? I don't really see any of these being as likely as shadow just being a wolf, but I'm open to it. I could probably lynch Mp7 over Kai here. Mainly I just want to get on with the game and see if we're right. I've put a ton of effort and thinking into this - it's not like I've been a ghost all day, I showed up and got the UT claim and worked through the worlds. But I'm at a place where I need new information to really drive me to start hardcore solving. No one's spitting in your face, dude. I'm not going to agree with you via sheer effort, I need a new perspective or information I haven't considered.
     
  15. Disquieted

    Disquieted Muggle

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  16. Umami

    Umami Muggle

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    Unvote, vote Dels
     
  17. Cobalt

    Cobalt Second Year

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    Sorry for tilting.

    It’s been a long day.
     
  18. Disquieted

    Disquieted Muggle

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    Wait no this is bad now I have to justify myself. Umami, please.
     
  19. KaiDASH

    KaiDASH High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    Cobalt, what you need to keep in mind is that if you're town then game is easy so there's really not much point in thinking or talking much about that, town in this world has it easy - Edge cases where Muzjik or Umami or whatever are scum are a problem for the people who happen to be alive on day 5 or 6, and not really an issue to talk much if at all about now.

    If you're a Witch that's of some concern but also can be addressed later.

    Realistically the only decision that needs to be made right now is who we want to lynch today, and maybe when exactly we want to lynch Manasi. And I'm not much of a fan of plan 'kill the maximum number of people immediately', just btw.
     
  20. muzjik

    muzjik Muggle

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    When this person dies, they kill Manasi. If this person is scum, at *least* one (and probably both) of the musketeers are town, and at some point they will have to die - they kill Manasi too. Other than that, there's nothing to really discuss, I don't think we ever burn a lynch on Manasi.
    --- Post automerged ---
    It is a "dick move" to keep caught scum alive on sites with activity requirements, but as this is a more personal community I think its fine - Manasi can forget the game exists if she wants, in order to stay antispew that's not even against her wincon. The mechanical play is not to waste a lynch on her.

    I'm probably dying tonight, right? I'll do a legacy before EoD. Not that anybody's going to care about my reads anyways, you don't know who I am or that my reads are very good, and this isn't a site I have any meta on anyways which is important. I will do it though.
     
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