Hi Manasi!

You’ve been an awfully good sport and it’d be a pleasure to write your biography.

You can help by telling us who your last teammate is, if you wouldn’t mind pretty please?

 

I saw no reason to claim just because some in the peanut gallery were yelling LC FIRE INTO MANASI.
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I've yet to see a reasoned post as to why it should be today, over the general 'optimal play involves using the LC to suicide & narrow PoE', and as I've posted previously, nothing prevents us from completely eliminating any reasonable PoE composition with a startpoint of lynching just Manasi today, while that also has the advantage of getting to see what the Witches do tonight.
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But whatever, I'm set to lynch Manasi at end of day if I'm the lynch or there's no majority.

 

Vote: manasi

 

I want people to respond very succinctly to this post as to what we should be doing by the end of day. Currently, I have no idea what each of you are trying to logically put forward and I would like to see how exactly that works.

I have been slowly picking apart the gamestate right now and I see no reason why the LC should activate right now, or that Manasi should be lynched today. The answer to this question is not "Kai is the witch", because Cobalt, your wall sucks and I am not convinced.

And if you are going to tell me to read the thread, you may as well quote your own posts where you lay it out.

Unvote

Now if you don't mind me I'm going to read the thread.

 

people voting other people etc.

Kai (4): Cobalt, fluff, muzjik, Umami
Manasi (3): Kai, Vaimes, Newcomb
shadow (1): Dels

 

There are two viable & competing worlds right now

1. Both Tom and Jarizok were Witches (note: This assumes that as a follow on, neither muzjik or Umami is a witch).
2. One of Tom or Jarizok was not a Witch (and thus, one of muzjik or Umami is)

We trivially win world one with any non-deep sleeper Witch, while world 2 becomes more obvious the longer the game goes and the Witches haven't used Last Stand.

So world 1, it doesn't matter who we lynch first because we can kill everyone we want regardless of kill order or other optimizations. World 2 I believe it's optimal to kill Manasi first.

You might want to refer to my prior worldbuilding/projection post

 

Can you lynch a PoE instead, pretty please
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I'm voting Kai I believe, but thank you

 

I have studied this decently and I understand the concept. When do you use your LC?

 

If we kill Manasi today, we disincentivize witches from killing muz because they know muz won't get any real information from the lynch, so killing Manasi early and starting last stand early doesn't narrow PoE and doesn't even get them to kill GD and UT immediately

 

You also disincentive witches from killing muz because you can't kill yourself, theoretically. I do not understand this point. Why are we aiming for muzjik's death?

What sort of information are we looking for, Umami? No matter what, muzjik is likely going to get no information.

 

LC DOB tomorrow & the day after unless it'd mess with MYLO/LYLO numbers, see Manami 1st A for an example of this.
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This isn't a rebuttal to any point I've brought up.

Witches have plenty of (psuedo) townfirms to kill, and confirmation that it's a 3 dead witches world is useful in and of itself.

 

Is there any reason why we shouldn't LC or DOB now?

 

I think just lynching Manasi is best, but I'll go through both use DOB and use LC from an information / optimization standpoint which I haven't done (previous thinking has been based on numbers / last stand).

For DOB:
If you wanted to get a useful alignment out of muzjik, then we could lynch Cobalt today and have him shoot Manasi. We already know Manasi's alignment but we don't know Cobalt's, so this would be the way to optimize info, which is relevant in worlds where Umami or Muzjik are Witches. Learning that muzjik died, or that he reported Cobalt as a specific alignment is actual info.

For LC:
This is actually worse because you don't find out my alignment, and in the event that the team is me+GD/UT (which is the only way I'm a witch with a path to victory), the remaining players will end up going through the PoE and Witches win, because last stand will trigger BUT you'll assume that because I used my power to lynch Manasi that I was town and the dead witches are Tom/Jari/Manasi.

So I'd say that killing Cobalt->Manasi is actually good here for info if it's Hard World, doesn't change the outcome if it's Easy World, and regardless it gives the Witches something to think about in muzjik.

My activation is bad.

Using a +kill today is fine from a numbers view, just I valued the versatility of being able to do something else later should the situation change in my previous posts.

lynch cobalt

 

@Kai: what do you mean we don’t find out your alignment? If you lynch Manasi and the game doesn’t end, then you’re town. Your entire paragraph in the middle there makes zero sense. And no, we are not lynching cobalt, that’s completely dumb, especially today.
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Like, yeah if GD or UT is scum, then sure, game will continue, but last stand will trigger, and if they don’t die and are actually town, that means the last witch is shooting into the PoE at some point anyway.

 

And how do you propose you'd tell the difference there?

Assuming you're town, do you think you're carrying a town win in a you / umami / muzjik final 3? Is fluff? Mp7? Because that's what it'd come down to.

World's where the the witch team is Tom / Jari / manasi / x are more or less irrelevant because town wins there regardless. So optimizing play for worlds that isn't the case is the play.

 

I’m not really sure how it makes a difference. If we are in the hard world, then yeah, I/whoever is left will have their work cut out for them, but you not using your LC muddies the water at best if you’re town. And if you’re scum then of course you want to push against activating.

 

Giving scum 2 kills unnecessarily early is fucking stupid. That's all I care to say.

 

At this point I just want to kill /someone/.
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Actually I suppose Kai said he'd kill manasi if we didn't have a lynch so I might as well just vote for who I want to kill.

Vote: shadow

Kai, I think your point is well-taken that it would be good to distinguish if we're in a harder world sooner, but even if we kill manasi and there are two deaths in the night, how does that help us determine between like a) shadow/dells/Mp7 is the last witch b) Muz lied and tom was town and Muz is the last witch or c) same thing but Umami/tom or d) one of the Musketeers is a witch and we've just written them off

 

Newcomb, Musketeers resolve themselves through nightkills, especially if Last Stand.

A town musketeer is never not killed in the next few nights if they don’t want extra KP on the PoE.

 

Man, if I were the last witch, I sure would have pretty much all the information I could ever want about how I should play with Last Stand to manipulate the information into the best possible configuration for me.