And his vote on Jarizok over shadow when wagons were close near EoD1?

 

Looking back at my votal collection, there never was a point where Jarizok and shadow wagons were close.
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Wait I take it back, there was a moment when trains were 5 for Jari and 4 for Shadow.

And M7 voted when the wagons were 4-4

 

Good point, but then how does that track with w/w wagons?

 

...what?

What w/w wagons?
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How many games of M Plus 7 have you seen?

 

Are you saying that a witch committed suicide somewhere?

 

Hm. If we kill one of the Musketeers today, we can have them shoot the next day when we lynch Cobalt.

So it would still be 2 kills, just with the benefit of getting to kill one of Vaimes/SB as well.

That track for everyone?

 

Doesn't the remaining musketeer just die that night then?

 

I'm going to go with the definitions of what ifs.

Newcomb is always town here, a lot of how he's presented himself has been town and unrelatedly he made a bunch of not w/w posts with Manasi. I'm settled here.

For M Plus 7 to be scum here he would have to deliberately bus Jarizok. At this point I would be wary of this clear but it is certainly some sort of clear. And given that Kai was town I'm very wary of doubting another one of these clears.

Vaimes would have to be bussed by Jarizok over the alternative of shadowlancer, and that's slightly bizarre. There's also musketeer theory that I'm not really caught onto that you all probably have a handle on more than I, and Vaimes' unique meta that I'm sure you have more of a handle on. Any addendums to Vaimes would probably be welcome.

fluff has to be bussed by tom the entire game, which again, isn't a full clear at all, but it's close.

Cobalt is probably always town for his Oracle strat, his repeated confidence and the amount of effort he's put in this game. I don't particularly care if he ended up wrong, the entire last day is a very special case of "he's definitely town here" that I don't think I need to go over.

We leave two people. Currently I'm moving around these two people for clarity on who the last witch is, as I don't have a strong enough confidence level on three of the five aforementioned villagers to call Dels and shadow the two people I want to kill.

shadow represents a world where tom decided to give up and go into anti-spew very early, and shadow went for the long con of hoping Cobalt would never retract, or the ultra-short term where Cobalt immediately retracts. Both are possibilities.

Dels represents... something.

I'm not particularly enthused with either's performance yesterday. Both have legitimate excuses, but Newcomb, Vaimes, fluff and Cobalt participated to a degree enough that I could probably say they had no TMI in attempting to figure out mechanics. M Plus 7 was afk, shadow has been on low power ever since he got hammered by two cases on him at the same time, and Dels has been on the record saying that he hates mechanics. If you had to ask me who was the witch purely on the day I was in, it would have been one of these three people.

 

Bah, apologies I missed EoD, things got crazy and I checked just too late.

Here now though, and should be able to be more present going forward.
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Lol, seriously? This setup.
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Sadly my mafia career has been... underwhelming to say the least post-Champs, but that's just IRL being a seriously fucked up thing. Working harder to change that.

I see where you're coming from, but low effort is not a thing I do purposefully or anything.
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Do we want to kill one of Vaimes or SB? They both seem town.
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Just based on my relatively uninformed opinion, I think it's probably shadow. Hopefully.

 

I know right? lol

like for such a dominant town that has done nothing wrong (besides having kai go off), lynched correctly 3 times, and witches even missed their n1 kill, this feels strangely like a tough position, mechanically. i don't think it's tough because theoretically it's just shadow, but still.
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i thought about this overnight but what exactly does shadow (or any last scum) do besides this? like if shadow makes the alternate play, "kill only 1", does he win? because we start assuming muz or umami are lying and we didn't kill 3 witches already? or would we just say "lack of last stand is wifom, lynch shadow anyway"

 

I don't see how else scum!shadow could have reasonably played this, but I'm open to suggestions there.

 

Again, this is not an unlikely possibility, in fact it's the one that makes the most sense. Don't let the fact that Cobalt held the claim for an entire day make you forget that from Shadow's PoV (if scum), it could have been retracted at any moment, likely before the day gets close to EoD.
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Are you saying there's no mechanical difference between [lynch, then lynch cobalt + get his kill] and [lynch a musketeer, let the other shoot, then lynch cobalt + get his kill] because both are possible and the latter just gets us a free lynch just in case?

 

I don't think there's any way witch!shadow wins this, all of us are probably in agreement that he needs to die. I don't think anyone else has proper tinfoils and short of killing Newcomb and Umami and hoping Cobalt gets sidetracked with other things and/or I grow a pair and actually start casing Dels he's probably just dying here in all worlds. (He doesn't even have a choice, nominally Cobalt would have trained DOB on him and he would have to play a game of coinflips to kill Vaimes and I efficiently.) That's a predictive mindset though, but yeah, assuming this kill clears shadow isn't really appropriate.

Never said it was unlikely, Dels.

 

Never said you said it was unlikely. But I do recall you didn't seem to be viewing it through that lens yesterday.

 

I changed my mind.

 

Color me intrigued.

 

Okay. Then I guess we agree.
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I think he just means he changed my mind since yesterday about what we're talking about.

 

I'm confused.

 

I was of the opinion that shadow's bus on tom doesn't make any sense. In a standard sense that's true when he's the last witch remaining. We had a long argument about this topic, Dels and I. To be fair, I still stand by my words at the time.

There are two explanations for this, though:

- shadow believed that Cobalt would retract his claim at any point in time, for short-term reactions.
- shadow was hoping that Cobalt would never retract and was hoping to never ruffle any feathers until he got around to killing Cobalt. (He would have to kill fontisian that night.)