The problem is, Dels being scum has the most potential to bite us in the ass aside from a deepwolf musketeer.

Because the Manasi kill was faked, and that’s a whole extra KP that Dels could manage to bust out when we think we’re safe or going into LYLO.

That’s the most concerning thing for me about that world.

Also there is no universe in which we lynch a musketeer to get the other one’s kill and then the witches don’t just murderize that person.

Unless witch musketeer wants to fire into the PoE for free.

Huh, that actually may not be a bad idea.
--- Post automerged ---
Like, if we lynch a musketeer and the other one doesn’t die, they’re either the last witch, or the last witch is EXTREMELY confident that they won’t get shot.
--- Post automerged ---
Lynch: M Plus 7

For now.
--- Post automerged ---

Especially because if Dels/Shadow are town this is just MP7 trying to get into the most likely mislynch.

 

Hunter shot is use-it-or-lose-it.

 

OH.

That’s fantastic news.

Dels was relatively high on my potential mechanical clears but knowing that allows me to not tinfoil it.

Sweet. Thanks Newcomb.
--- Post automerged ---
This is the aforementioned list btw

If last stand activated and team was Jarizok/Manasi/Tom/x:

Mechanical town clears
Umami
Muzjik
—
Mechanical town probables
Newcomb
Dels
—
Musketeers that are widely townread:
Vaimes
Disquieted
—
Consensus PoE
(Me)
M+7
Fluff
Shadow

 

Rule of three, dot gif.

I still stand by this being a pretty bizarre and out-of-character sequence if manasi/Dels are w/w here.

Pretty good look for Vaimes, in hindsight.
--- Post automerged ---

How is Dels a probable mechanical clear?

Like. If Dels is the witch!Hunter, he shot manasi too, just like if he were the village!Hunter. Shooting anyone else outs the Hunter role as a witch, and when Dels made the shot, you'd taken their fakeclaim. In that world, where he can't claim Oracle without making it a thunderdome, what exactly is he going to do with his Hunter shot that night?

 

Hmm, good point Newcomb.

I guess Dels can move down to below Musketeers for PoE purposes.

I do admit I noticed a lot of the Dels/Manasi exchanges and from BOTH of them it just looked bizarre.

Where was the post where I looked at how Manasi angled on Dels though? Because that felt pretty unaligned. Let me find it
--- Post automerged ---

Yeah I think I said Dels is almost never with Manasi unless this was EXTREMELY bizarre distancing.

 

Vote shadow
--- Post automerged ---
This is probably another one of those "the last witch has had little to no impact on the game and that's why we can't find them" cases.

 

I wish I was confident enough in knowing tom that I could clear Dels off that. It really doesn't feel like a partner thing, where you're like... townreading them for their blatent townread on a third partner, but also mentioning that it could be openwolfing.

.

If that's how Dels distances / busses then I my understanding of Dels as a player is just wildly wrong. I feel like when Dels townsides as a wolf, he commits to it.

lol

This might be evidence that tom just didn't have the WIM this game. I keep looking at his posts trying to pan for the gold of like, the little amusing touches he likes as a wolf, the way he entertains himself, but like. He just spews out three light, correct townreads here so idk maybe the tank was just empty for him this game.

Maybe that's the sauce?

Like, he's amusing himself trying to link every partner to a villager?
--- Post automerged ---
Okay, I think we should have Fluff +1 me.

@Cobalt
@shadowlancerx
@Disquieted
@Vaimes
@Newcomb
@his fluffiness
@M Plus 7
@Dels

Let's say we kill shadow here and the game doesn't end. We go into N4 with 7 alive. The last witch gets a regular kill + a Role Kill. The Angels at this point would be 5 to 3 demons, so they can block a shot through Haunt.

That means the last one wouldn't be able to get a sure kill off on me; they'd have to Role Kill and hope the Angels WIFOM the protect.

If they kill elsewhere, they can... what? If the last one's not a musketeer, they can't just kill one of them, they really need to kill both to take away the extra town KP. But if they take a shot at both, they have to 50-50 the role kill, or shoot twice normally and cross their fingers the Angels don't put the save on one of them.

If they don't do that, or the witch is one of SB/Vaimes, they're going to shoot twice into the PoE.

Don't forget, the Angels get a double-priority protect. If they can block just one kill, we'd be at 8 alive, lynch 7 alive, NK + blocked kill 6 alive, lynch Cobalt + DoB shot 4 alive, ah fuck me it still doesn't get us another lynch. They've have to block 2 kills in two nights. If they can somehow block 2 kills, it would go 8 alive, lynch 7 alive, Nk+block 6 alive, lynch Cobalt+DoB shot 4 alive, NK + blocked kill 3 alive, F3.

Jesus fuck was having Kai go off on manasi a mistake.

I do think having Fluff +1 me here makes the NK decision rougher for the last witch, since it means they can't just lock in their role kill on me as a guarantee.

I also can't think of a better use for it.

 

Reverse Rule of 3 though compounded on this.

I doubt he’d drop all three teammates and he did two for sure.

 

Hmmm

 

I am not mechanically clear lol, not even somewhat
--- Post automerged ---
Also seriously yeah who was advocating for Manasi dying yesterday? I thought that seemed bad and now that the numbers are much more clear in our face it seems it obviously was...
--- Post automerged ---
Not that I don't think Shadow is the last scum and we don't win anyway (It's not a perspective slip) but it the last wolf is someone else I'll be really annoyed we got to lylo a day earlier than we needed to

 

Whether Kai triggers yesterday or later we reach LYLO at the same time, because he HAS to trigger at some point for PoE’s sake.

It was better to do it yesterday.
--- Post automerged ---
I honestly think M Plus 7 > Fluff ends the game

Manasi was angling for a Shadow lynch early on, I still doubt they’re teamed.
--- Post automerged ---
@Newcomb

I agree that +1ing you is the move here.

@his fluffiness
--- Post automerged ---
Okay, so, the reasons why I’m tinfoiling Musketeers is because the last witch had no reason to keep Umami/Muzjik alive.

Like, if they both die, we no longer need them because we have mass claimed and with 3 witches dead anyone who doesn’t end the game by dying is a villager.

Knowing that they’re useless and just confirmed town if two kills happen, why kill them both when you can make just one kill, keep one alive, and force town to consider other worlds of one of them being a witch?

I guess if two kills happen and they’re more focused on getting town’s numbers down then we know they are confirmed town so they didn’t want to keep townfirms around, but I’m more worried about the last witch being someone who benefits from keeping the PoE where it is and how it’s being processed.

Which only fits a musketeer imo.

 

We're not talking about Kai triggering, we're talking about Manasi dying.

 

I NURSE GAMBLER

 

@Miner
--- Post automerged ---

(That is why I asked who's on track to be mislynched if the game goes on as it is.)
--- Post automerged ---
I dunno, this game seems to be wildly uncharacteristic for shadow of any alignment. I've never seen him when his team was so thoroughly wiped out, so that could be a part of it. Plus DLP being what it is for newer people.

 

It looks as if the next two lynches will be in fluff/shadow/m7.
--- Post automerged ---
Why didnt scum just kill Newcomb.

If I just locked in a loss to scumComb, imma cry.

 

I still think Newcomb is more likely scum than MPlus or Fluff or anyone else.

 

You should've said that before he got nursed. :I

 

But doesn't this go both ways with scum!shadow saying it's just me?
--- Post automerged ---
I still think it's probably just shadow, but the consensus POE being me + Fluff + Shadow is basically sort of scum = least effort players, which... yeah.
--- Post automerged ---

Do you mind expanding on this?

 

MPlus is towny. Fluff is towny. I just do not think they are scum.

Newcomb still had an "off" day 1 plus still not sure about the SoD2 reaction, and just generally hasn't been a major factor. (Sorry Newcomb, it's just the lynch on Jari happened without you, you did suspect Manasi I guess, and you had been townreading-ish tom as well)

 

Man, I absolutely don't know who we should kill.
--- Post automerged ---

fluff, without checking your own posts, how has your shadow read progressed throughout the game? Just like a barebones chart of town > scum > not sure > town, or whatever.
--- Post automerged ---
Because if someone isn't 100% on Newcomb being town, we cannot kill shadow toDay.