Wow Newcomb is so smart and good at mafia
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The other thing about MPlus that you didn't quite touch upon is regarding MPlus's position in the game - He's busy IRL, low activity, only just makes it in at the end. If you are a scum like that, you know you probably won't do too great in the game. (no offense, just for activity reasons) That's not the position you choose to bus a partner in. You bus when you can ride the credit to a victory, not just maybe get credit and then go back to idling and probably get lynched anyway. And MPlus is a team player, he wouldn't bus his active partner when he isn't active himself.

 

The middle part is true, but not something wolves follow all the time. Some people bus without a real plan to win the game off it, they just do it to survive or because it feels like a strong move at the time.

I agree with the last part, though. I don't know Mp7 well but he strikes me as the kind of guy who'd consider bussing a partner when he's not really dictating the gameflow, and he has such a perfect out to not do that, to be a dick move.
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Dels, what's your sense of Vaimes here? There's kind of a gap between him and the rest. My reads right now are like, I think it's shadow, if it's not shadow then I don't even really feel like fluff or Vaimes makes sense but it's more that they don't really seem to fit with the team than the you/SB/Mp7 group where there's multiple strong reasons.

Basically like, we definitely kill shadow with one of our kills, and the other should be fluff, or maaybe Vaimes.

 

Do you know who else voted shadow and was even more reluctant to swap to Jarizok?

 

What is an SB?
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I dunno, I'm over here in simleton-ville thinking that shadow and Manasi kinda occupy the same space in my mind. Complaining about being treated like outsiders, never really getting into the game.

Like I can't really fathom how shadow could be a villager and still completely flop when Cobalt claimed Oracle. The reaction was lukewarm at best.
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Maybe I just need to read shadow's posts again after he was cleared.

Tomorrow.

 

SB = smartbomb = Disquieted

 

Holy shit, Newcomb and Dels next level reading me, I love it.

Anyway I'm done with work today and now just a bit tispy, so perfect time to play mafia, right?
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Reading through Vaimes ISO now, and this post stuck out to me. Seems relatively townie to me from a tone + mindset sort of perspective, wherein Vaimes seems to be trying to actually assess Dels, and I'm not sure scum!Vaimes thinks to come at the Dels read from that specific angle?
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How many of the players left have seem scum!Vaimes, and what would you say is like the biggest difference between him being town v. scum?

 

Not quite sold on this one. The mindset is right, but there's very little actual assessment. It doesn't quite have that spark where I can definitely tell it's villager!Vaimes.

 

Hi Newcomb! Thanks for the input.

Hmmmm, that's fair. What would you say that post might look like re: your expectations for villager!Vaimes? (if that makes sense)

 

Vaimes is actually one of two players in this game that I've been v/v, w/w, w/v, and v/w with/against.

The biggest difference between him being town and him being scum is that as a wolf, he's hyper-aware he's a wolf. He's gotten better at this, but as a wolf he'll never feel completely grounded. As both alignments, he'll kind of float through the game, to a point, not really standing firm on anything, but he's got a gear as a villager that's unmistakable where he'll get pushed on or something will catch his eye or he'll get an unshakeable read and he'll just have... conviction. Not that he'll get in your face and yell really but it's like... you read his posts and it's impossible not to see that he just believes what he's saying.
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It's not that I think that post would look a lot different if he was a villager, it's that it's kind of smack in the middle of his range.

 

Continuing to just read through Vaimes ISO and I'm getting the strange impression (again, as I was during D1 or whenever the fuck that was) that despite any convincing evidence in any of Vaimes's posts that Vaimes = town, he just really "feels" town holistically to me. I really can't fathom it. I wouldn't like... bet the game on it by any means, because this isn't the strongest thing in the universe, but for some reason his thoughts consistently read genuine to me. I can't speak to his scum range though, and I'm going to keep trying to really see if there's anything specifically notable re: treatment of tom/Manasi/Jari.
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That's awesome, thanks. I'll see if I can get a sense of that too at least from my perspective.
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Admittedly, this reads a bit *huh* in retrospect. Could be a teammate interaction, idk.
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Admittedly, this reads a bit *huh* in retrospect. Could be a teammate interaction, idk.

Here's a thing.

 

That's actually a pretty good indicator Vaimes is a villager, tbh.

Hope it helped. Town!Vaimes is something that just, like... you know it when you see it. I haven't seen it this game, but admittedly I haven't really been looking since it's seemed like a super easy game up until we had a villager suicide into a witch to give the last witch 2 KP a night.

 

In retrospect I'm not a big fan of this post either. I don't feel like I remember Vaimes going anywhere with this as if he was trying to assess me. (I'll keep an eye out though.)
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Not sure what to think of this whole thing. Could fit example of Vaimes putting his money where his mouth is though.

 

In the world where Dels is the last one, they know they don't have GD or UT, they know the reveal is coming 100%.

I really don't think witch!Dels brings this level of nuance of like, "damn, feeling a little regret, hopefully it was a hit" to this.

That's also not quite how I'd expect witch!Vaimes to approach a bounced kill after a D1 witch lynch.

Admittedly, it's a little weaker read than the Dels one since Vaimes has a lot of experience in this setup and would be able to get to that mental roadmap of what the expectation would be without too much of a stretch, I think.

Man I just keep coming up with reasons why it's literally nobody but shadow.

I'm either making a mistake somewhere or I'm wasting my time. Frustrating.

 

That's good to know, thanks man. Yeah... I am like... I have a million things to do so still half-wondering if this is a waste of my time, but hey, I recognize I've done very little, so I guess I'm just making up for that. Or trying to anyway.

 

Yeah fair. I'm about to read that section again, with some time and distance I should be able to asses it less emotionally.

 

This is a super weak hot take sort of thing, but I don't think a teammate words this post like this.
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Yeah, I agree with your takes here FWIW. I independently felt like Vaimes coming into D2 reads pretty genuinely overall, but I'm still just trying to poke at literally anything I can find.
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This post is objectively funny. That's all.
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QFT
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Another holistic observation re: Vaimes

I feel like it's a bit difficult to go through and track his train of thought with respect to certain reads developments, but in spite of that, especially during D2, I feel like his posts generally organically develop reads -- I can get a very clear sense for why Vaimes doubted Cobalt's claim on D2 for example.
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Lol.
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Meh. I'm getting impatient now.

Overall conclusion of Vaimes: He's probably town. He could be the last witch I guess. I didn't see anything particularly compelling one way or the other. Nonetheless I can't shake the feeling that he's just being genuine.
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Alright, who next? I guess Dels, just so I can say I looked at the witchketeer possibility at least.

 

Compare and contrast. At least one villager is having the thought that I might have IK'd myself.

I feel like people bringing that up are more wolfy than not, since it's pretty much the only way to salvage a disaster of a D1/N1 - lose a witch, bounce a kill, don't have GD/UT.

I feel like Vaimes is the more villagery reaction though. Like he doesn't ponder or just put the idea out there, he actually gets up in my face about it.

Whereas fluff is just like, putting it out there.

I hated this at the time, and I'm still not super thrilled with it. I mean it could just be like, Vaimes and I completely whiffing on getting into each other's heads, but I just have such a hard time thinking he'd actually think that.

And the (Gemma is town) thing is exactly the ammo I think he'd load into his gun if he were to come at me as a wolf. I think if Vaimes actually were going to go up against me, he'd need a lot of townsiding truth on his side to make himself sound good.

This all feels a little narrative-y, though. I could just be too tunneled onto my mental map of how that would play out. It gives me bad vibes is about all I can really say.

:/

Yeah I could really see it either way here. Just whiffing on each other, or witch!Vaimes just taking a defensive swipe and having it come off hollow.
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Gemma/Disquieted is the other musketeer.

 

I'm already thinking, "why the fuck I am reading Dels?" but oh well.
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Oh! Yes. LMAO. Thank you Newcomb. Dels is... Hunter? Hahaha.

Okay, well... I guess I could read Gemma/Disquieted instead. Meh.
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Never ever trust me with anything mechanics, by the way.
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I'll just read EVERYONE. Actually I'm not sure I'll have time.
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Okay, this post is town AF.

 

Vote: Vaimes

I think we should run Vaimes up here and see what happens.

 

Sure, I can dig that.

Vote: Vaimes
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JFC, Gemma is town.
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Yeah, I really don't think Gemma/SB is the last witch, lol, and I still have too much to read.
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This is dumb, I'm not voting Gemma/SB ever this phase.

Next up... fluff?