RUBICON INTERACTION ANALYSIS

| denotes responding to a quote or a question, or a vote.
- denotes a passive mention.

Multiple occurrences in the same post are redundant. If a post contains both | and - for the same player, only | is mentioned.

Some | may be demoted to - and vice versa depending on importance.

Code:

Lucky: |||--
Zeitg: ||-----
Mordn: ||-- 
Probl: |---
Typhn: |--- 
Caesr: |-
BillD: ---
Dermn: --
Wetns: --
Fonti:

Breaking this down:

I think Rubicon is white-knighting Zeitgeist, as he's mentioned that he liked Zeitgeist for town and he didn't understand the votes on him. I know that most scum do some sort of variant of this rule:

I think Zeitgeist was his one firm town read, and given by the number of times he's interacted with him I think that Zeit is a low-hanging fruit townie, especially as he's repeating his super passive, scummy meta from last game.

I also think Luckylee is town based on Rubicon's interactions with him and the fact that Luckylee forgot to mention him on his reads list. The most important thing when scum think about making a t/s list is the placement of their buddies and Luckylee forgot about him.

fontisian has the worst interactions with Rubicon, aka: No interactions at all. Since I know Rubicon doesn't repeat his really bad mild distancing anymore, his new scum interaction meta is not interacting with his buddies at all. Conveniently Rubicon fits on my fontisian/Bill Door scumteam I have.

Past that there isn't much to glean. I want to look at Bill Door a bit more and but I want to lynch fontisian toDay.

---------- Post automerged at 03:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:26 PM ----------

I think that Probellum is doing his thing where he's really townie early game but falters/replaces out late game. Even though fontisian is probably scum I agree with her about this being one of the more genuine things I've read this game.

For the record, Probellum, I'd recommend you do a "shadow" thing next game where someone not in the game watches over you and gives you suggestions on how to play, what mistakes you made, etc. I'm not sure if you can do that on DLP but I've done it many times on my home site to great success.

 

Sesc: Probellum is probably town, unless you think he faked mixing up Kalas and Rubicon. You're wasting your time.

What do you think of my read list? We have the equivalent of a flip right now. Analyze it. (This goes for everyone.)

Moridin: Why is Bill Door at the top of your scum list?

Could you elaborate on Dermon?

No. If Rubicon had one firm town read, it was Dermon.

What? How do you know that? All of my history with him says otherwise.

Now, are you going to share your notes or not?

 

Ok, so that blew the Rubicon/Kalas scumteam theory completely out of the water, and given the way in which Rubicon used his ability not just to control the lynch, but also to end discussion, leads me to tentatively assume that he is scum.
So under these assumptions, Sesc is most likely town, since Kalas wouldn't have lied if he were the priest.


Luckylee, however, looks bad. His initial D2 vote was for Rubicon:

This came ten posts after this:

However, during that ten-post time period, Luckylee posted three times, without commenting on any reasons why Rubicon would want to lynch him, or putting on any kind of pressure.

After that, he becomes the fourth person to join the Kalas wagon:

However, the only times he refers to Kalas between his two votes is to express that Rubicon built a “decent case” in post #432, and four posts later, after Kalas rebuts Rubicon, he says that Kalas is “very eh,” neither of which denote a great amount of suspicion.
All that time, in fact, he has been pushing for a Bill Door or Zeitgeist lynch. In fact, in the post above, Luckylee had just finished attacking Zeitgeist for not making a coherent case against Kalas (even when Zeitgeist is not voting for Kalas), before he himself does a U-turn and plants his vote there with little to back it up.

If Rubicon is scum, the changes are quite good that he and Luckylee are in cahoots.

Vote: Luckylee

 

Yeah I'll share my notes after I eat, which is right now.

I know this because I can see your Coven QT of this:

 

No shit, sherlock. Dermon, why do you have to make scummy summarization just after I decided you were my strongest town read after Sesc?

Since you're seeing what I see in Luckylee, would you mind taking a look at Vira and Zeit?

Zeit: You never answer my question about your post 443: Why weren't you voting Rubicon in that post?

---------- Post automerged at 07:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:56 PM ----------

Are you refering to tinyhunt, aka the game you won through a combination of bussing and roleguesses?

I can't seem to find that post in the tinyhunt coven qts.

 

@Font (since the question about her readwall was addressed to everyone)

For the most part, I agree with your wall. However, I would have flipped Caesar and Probellum, as well as Moridin and Bill Door. I'm curious - what led you to rank Moridin so lowly?

Also, concerning summarization, I don't see any reason why explaining my thoughts and assumptions would be a bad thing.

I will also look at Vira and Zeit.

 

Oh, it was from a mafiascum game we played a while back. Sorry for not linking.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=5377294#p5377294

---------- Post automerged at 04:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:05 PM ----------

Dermon, Luckylee is most likely town. Did you read my interaction analysis?

I think Zeit is probably town too because there is no reason for Rubicon!scum to not whiteknight Zeit w/this post:

In addition, I think this reads somewhat genuine:

 

Dermon: I ranked Moridin fairly low for two reasons. 1. Rubicon seemed to be confused in his attitude towards him, switching between light pressure and light defense. 2.Moridin expressed a lot of suspicion of Rubicon at the end of the day, but when he had the chance to put Rubicon in the lead votes wise, he instead chose to put Bill Door in the lead.

Why would you have Caesar higher up?

Thanks, but that game ended in October. The Tinyhunt game is a more recent way to assess Rubicon's views on bussing.

---------- Post automerged at 07:15 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:13 PM ----------

I don't understand what you're saying here. Could you elaborate?

 

Yeah, he avoided interacting w/me in the Tiny Hunt game, I think.

I'm saying that the only way Rubicon would whiteknight Zeitgeist like that is if he knew Zeit was town based on him being scum.

---------- Post automerged at 04:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:19 PM ----------

Aekiel (5): Bill Door, Typhon, Luckylee, Zeitgeist, Probellum
Typhon (4): Sesc, Aekiel, Kalas, Caesar
Moridin (1): fontisian
Rubicon (1): Uncle Stojil
Luckylee (1): Moridin
Kalas (1): Rubicon

Abstaining: Dermon, Wetnurse


Aekiel (8): Bill Door, Typhon, Luckylee, Zeitgeist, Probellum, Fontisian, Dermon, Uncle Stojil
Luckylee (3): Moridin, Rubicon, Aekiel
Typhon (3): Sesc, Kalas, Caesar

Abstaining: Wetnurse

Current Vote Total:

Bill Door (5): Sesc, Moridin, Zeitgeist, Vira, Prophylaxis
Kalas (4): Rubicon, Uncle Stojil, Fontisian, Luckylee
Zeitgeist (3): Caesar, Probellum, Bill Door
Rubicon (1): Kalas

Abstaining: Dermon

I'm trying to not be overcome by confirmation bias but man, a Rubicon/font/Bill Door/??? scumteam seems so likely.

Look at the super townie Bill Door wagon and the Kalas wagon with literally all the scum in it.

Since I'm pretty sure that most of you aren't understanding why I keep calling fontisian scum I'll build a CliffNotes case from my notes.

 

Dermon's case against Kalas was this:

He voted for Kalas based on his perceived Rubicon/Kalas scumteam. But his only real case against Kalas was that Rubicon connection, so he was saying that Kalas is only scum because Rubicon is and yet he voted to lynch Kalas instead of Rubicon.

This was also the fifth vote of eight needed which is a really common spot for scum to hide on a bandwagon.

 

@Font: Between TyphoVira and Zeitgeist, Zeit is definitely more scummy. However, most of that rests on his associations with Luckylee. Even so, in post #420, he expresses the notion “either Luckylee is innocent or Rubicon is,” before placing a vote on Luckylee. Also in the same post, he is closely tying Luckylee to Kalas, probably to increase Luckylee's town-cred. Further down, he says that “[Luckylee's] brand of logical fallacy is something that you'd find with potential witches or holy villagers.” And directly after that, he goes ahead and votes Luckylee.

So, in one post, he manages to vote to lynch Luckylee, provide a boost to either Rubicon or Luckylee's town-cred, and insinuate that Luckylee might be a holy villager. That's either a fatal case of indecisiveness or someone trying to cover every eventuality for a teammate.
Fast forward to post #443, he uses soft logic and the fears of lynching a power role in order to pull his vote from Luckylee, and shift it to Bill Door.

---------- Post automerged at 19:48 ---------- Previous post was at 19:35 ----------

@Bill: Yes, my vote for Kalas was based mostly off of a Kalas/Rubicon scumteam. I put my vote on Kalas because in my eyes, one of them was just as good as the other, especially since we wouldn't be able to see Rubicon's alignment once he died. Therefore, there was nothing that the death of one of them could do to clear the other. Additionally, Kalas would have been easier to get to majority, instead of just wasting my vote by parking it on Rubicon until we ended up no-lynching.

 

Sesc: I was wrong about a Rubicon/Kalas sucmteam. I know that now. Unfortunately, that doesn't just leave only one option, however glaring that option may be. After reading the last hunt, specifically where Kai claimed judge and was killed for it, I am not going to exclude any possibility from my thoughts, no matter how slight.

---------- Post automerged at 20:17 ---------- Previous post was at 20:08 ----------

Also, Font: I would put Caesar a bit higher because despite his lower postcount, he answers questions well, and with appropriate analysis. I think he is looking for scum.

 

Dermon, unless Rubicon has got some blood feud going against Kalas that we don't know about, town!rubicon would not loose cannon the goddamned priest.

---------- Post automerged at 01:38 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:37 AM ----------

hehe, "goddamned priest".

 

Lol, I voted rubicon because of his blatant trolling and addressed it dermon. I was actually the first one to vote rubicon After he pulled that bs. So I'm somewhat confused. Still waiting for moridin but dermon's being pretty scummy ATM. Ignoring pressure on fonti, and his weird conclusions about me\zeit.

Lynch Vote Dermon

Your conclusions make no sense, I voted Rubicon and even explained why. And yeah, zeit's comment is weird on his part, not mine.

 

Bill's generally been unresponsive and non-scumhunting. Most of his posts are oneliners stating the obvious or responses to pressure. He hasn't really pressured anyone even when giving reads (see #411). The whole 'Aekiel's alignment' thing and more tellingly, his reaction to it (especially in light of #409 meaning he basically disagreed with Aekiel on most stuff). The way Rubicon tried so hard to get a lynch off him - why bother setting up such a huge case against Kalas (or, rather, not saving that case for the next day) unless 1) he had a role read on Kalas and wanted him dead asap 2) he wanted to save Bill?

He posted #500 in response to my question, but his Zeitgeist case is iffy - the post is slightly weird only because of whatever language fetish Zeit's got this game, but not that bad otherwise. His Dermon case is likewise shaky given Kalas was a much more reasonable lynch than Rubicon at the time (leaving aside the Kalas<->Rubicon thing, which he doesn't comment on), and his Prophylaxis case is odd considering it's not really connected to Rubicon or his other reads in any way.

Incidentally, given no role flip, the utility of the 'townie to support' Prophylaxis mentions is heavily reduced - it relies on the townie in question being given a clean chit by other mechanics rather than a simple role flip upon death (and as such, it would make much more sense to prop up someone like Sesc or Stojil, who'd be more likely to be revealed town).

I'm surprised Wetlaxis is so green. I don't see what Wetnurse has done to justify that, and the only real post Prophylaxis has at the time of yours is #459, which is basically a readwall without any analysis or pressure.

Probellum's towniness is also something I disagree with (and yours ). I'd be interested in hearing your case against Vira, too.

Also, I don't get why Probellum couldn't have faked mixing up Kalas and Rubicon - or rather, intentionally done it precisely because 'scum are hyperaware of their teammates'. Don't forget scum had daychat in the pregame, and could have discussed setting such a scenario up).

 

Really, Font, I’m the most suspicious person here? You didn’t give a good case for me.

Unspecified? You mean in my read dump when I said:

Looks clear to me.

Font and Dermon are my top scum reads at the moment. Font, for not giving a reason why I’m the scummiest and for little things throughout the game, and Dermon for his lurkiness and vague comments.

(Are you not even going to look at the Kalas lynch wagon, Font? Maybe because you're on it?)

Lynch Vote: Dermon.

I'm going to vote for Dermon here because I'm more sure on him than Font. I’ll make a bigger case for Font tomorrow, but I’ve already wasted my whole day reading Tower of God, so time for bed again. o/

 

Again, the game that you partially won by bussing. Why would Rubicon whiteknight a town Zeit close to a lynch in a game without flips?

Then what, exactly, do you think of Rubicon's early buddying of Dermon?

If you like. I'd much prefer you go after Luckylee, if you set on the Kalas wagon. Or, you could wake up and notice Vira.

Lucky, man, you get a fair amount of leeway for being a complete derp, but this has to stop. Why did you switch off Rubicon, if you initally voted him for trolling? Why do you always OMGUS anyone who attacks you? How was Dermon ignoring pressure on me, and why would that make him scummy? Why is his conclusion about you and Zeit weird?

Start putting some effort toward making sense or get lynched.

Makes sense. Another explanation for Rubicon's push of Kalas is that he felt pressured and wanted to appear town by making a strong case, or a combination of the three.

I actually thought his reasoning for voting Dermon makes the most sense of his three reads. It's weakness was that it ignored everything else Dermon's done, and his early interactions with Rubicon.

It's more like he hasn't done anything scummy, unlike the majority of people in thread.

Possible, and it works with Rubicon's comment about townslips. Still, I think Probellum's posts read very genuine.

Yes. Painfully so. The sad thing for you is it isn't even your fault. The vast majority of the scumminess and connections to Rubicon came from Typhon and Rubicon. You actually made an alright bus. This worst things you've done are attempting OMGUS this, providing information over analysis and only making a pretense of activity (Instead of doing the townie-trying-to-find-scum thing and actually reading Day 1 carefully, you instead spent time summarizing Day 2. One of those things looks towny but isn't all that helpful for scumhunting and the other actually helps you scum hunt but doesn't look good. Guess which option you went for?). But alright, I'll do a full case against you tomorrow, since the rest of the game is apparently blind.

And since you've seemed to have missed/are willfully ignoring this, I'll quote it:

Post 401: "Rubicon is trolling guys. Let's lynch him." You didn't bother to explain how his actions exhibited a scum mindset, nor did you provide a convincing argument. At the time I read that post, I thought "policy lynch."
Post 412: Your readwall accused Rubicon being off topic for a bit, replying defensively to Probellum, and telling Lucky to waste his extension. It's all information and no analysis.

Weak. If you're going to OMGUS me, at least have the balls to outright attack me. I'll just take a moment to appreciate the irony of you accusing Dermon of making vague comments.

 

So, yeah, I'm opting out. I've just been feeling like shit the last few days, from my Lumbar Puncture and most of next week is gonna be full of celebrations. Not to mention, I just feel so lost in these Mafia games after the first day.

Anyway, @Fonti: Mostly agree with it, but I think I'd put Dermon a tad lower after his post, an Prophylaxs seems more Nullish to me, then the (What I assume to be) Townish Null read you have him as.

@Moridin: That's a lot more clear then Sesc was being, so, thank you for that, at least. Again, I'm not entirely sure what questions to ask, but putting down my Lych Vote simply slipped my mind.

@Sesc: No, you apparently weren't clear enough. If there's a next time, please spell it out for me like I'm a five year old child.

@Rubicon: Yes, it seems you are right and that is exactly what I'm going to do. (Though I probably wouldn't have if not for how crappy I've felt and how busy I'll probably be next week) If I do play another game of Mafia, I may ask about such a thing.

As it is, I'll put my Lynch Vote back on Moridin for now, until I'm replaced.

Lynch Vote Moridin