They don't work. Either he felt like he might be lynched, or he didn't. You are assuming both at the same time.

 

No I am not. I said that would be a ballsy thing to do if he were scum, and considering he had one vote it wouldn't make sense to me from that perspective. If on the other hand, he were town and had one vote, and considered how he himself had played, then yeah I can see why he revealed. If I didn't phrase that well enough my bad. Its past midnight tomorrow, I'll be a bit less delirious tomorrow morning.

 

Ok, I can't decide if Luckylee's defense of Zeitgeist reads like a scumteam or not. If they are scum together, why connect themselves like that? What do you think, Font?

 

Dermon: Because Lucky is a complete derp? I'm going to look back through tomorrow, when my head's a little clearer, before I come to a conclusion.

 

Oh and I'll have a real comp, so I'll get those quotes.

 

What? We have one confirmed scum death, and you think the Oracle's 'secondary ability', which is on the verge of activating, is useless?

Why?

lolno

Wait, what? What's your last question? I've been back for a while now, indeed since before D2 ended.

Also revealing as fake town is highly useful in several cases even when there's no imminent lynch (and especially if there's a threat of a lynch down the road).

Indeed, as you said, Zeit might have felt (and had good reason for feeling) that he might be lynched further down the road. And yet after his reveal a disturbing number of people seem willing to write him off as town. I'd say his reveal worked to shift suspicion off him.

Where in the above scenario, as it has played out, is Zeit required to be town? The usual threat with fake town reveals is that the role you reveal as generally has someone real occupying it - but here, roles are dissociated from alignments, so Zeit can use his own with no fear of a counterclaim. So, again, why exactly is it ballsy?

Get what done? What does he expect to happen with this information? Warning the 'real priest', on N2 after we know a scum was killed?

Was just about to post this. Well, points 1 and 3. I'm not sure if 1 could work as it might qualify for the 'Encryption' thing, but if it's allowed then it's very powerful given the kind of info Rubicon would have been privy to (identity of Gravedigger and Judge, I think).

 

Yeah, no Vira case tonight. Night all.

 

LOL ninjaed, and more wonderful interaction between Fonti/Dermon. Night.

 

You phrased it fine, and that serves only to highlight the nonsensical reasoning.

What, exactly, is the difference between a scum!Oracle Zeit and a town!Oracle Zeit, that would mean one revealing makes sense where the other doesn't?

Again, don't forget, (assuming we believe Zeit is the Oracle which there is no reason not to) there is no danger of a counterclaim. So why is it nonsensical for scum yet reasonable for town?

 

Hey, I have a great idea! how about we scumcoach even more?

I am caught up now

 

What scumcoaching, sorry?

Also if you're caught up then could you give us your opinion on matters? I'll assume it's incoming.

 

I'll probably sleep before I finish that.
You can ask me specific questions, though.

 

@Fontisian & Bill Door: I am fairly certain that at the time I role-revealed, I wasn't going to be lynched. A number of other names were floating around at the time, including but not limited to Dermon, Bill Door, Luckylee, Typhovira and Probellum. That should explain why I am far more likely to be aligned with the Town than with the Coven: it is ostentatiously and far too risky for a scum Witch to claim when he/she is not in eminent danger and share information that could and should be kept private. Moridin and you two are doubt-casting by using argumentum ad consequentiam or an appeal to force.

Essentially, the three of you are arguing that "Zeit's a scum oracle because a town oracle would never role-claim; the secondary role of surviving until only one Witch remains is likely! Now as a scum oracle, he's going to bluff the town using his fantastic-awesome scumploy and will kill you all."

tl;dr, Fonty, BD, and Moridin are fear-mongering. Derps like Dermon are following along because Fonty's previous position as a Town leader allowed her to pull-off fallacious arguments that Appeal to Authority. However, those three are desperately trying to string a case together because they know that a.) Sesc, Aek, and Stojil are townfirmed; b.) Rubicon is Scumfirmed. That means if I'm townfirmed, that significantly focuses the scumhunt on an increasingly limited pool of suspects.

Also, I suspect that the Witches would have night-killed me before only one Witch remained, which means that I had to role-reveal in order to refocus the town's efforts. Having two town-firmed people helps limit the possible candidates for Witchcraft.

 

Why would the witches kill you before only one witch remained, exactly? Given the number of times your name has come up as a lynch target?

Why? This is something Lucky has said as well, and I fail to see the reasoning behind it. Can either of you explain the thought process here?

Bill, what is your opinion of this day so far, and how does your current scumlist stand given that information?

---------- Post automerged at 12:28 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:24 PM ----------

I've made a mistake in one of my previous posts. I was under the impression that there are only three witches, when in fact there are four. As such, the oracle's witchcount activation is not imminent, which lends a little strength to Zeit's case. The rest of my points stand, however.

 

All right, train arrived, and I'm home now.

Wetnurse/Prophylaxis:
Very Suspicious. All of Wetnurse posts were bad.
Prophylaxis starts with voting for Kalas. I don't like the interaction analysis. It's basically impossible for me to follow his train of thought. The case on fontisian is not particularly convincing, basically only the lack of interaction between Rubicon and fontisian is a real clue...Basically having trouble finding something I can like.

Zeitgeist: Pretty wtf. (And the overly verbiose posts were actually the best) I can make more sense out of his play if he is scum, then if he is town. Therefore, want to lynch.

Typhon/Vira: Vira seems towny, especially for pushing against Kalas lynch

Caesar: Absent. A bit isolated in interactions. I didn't like #87. Nobody missed him, that's dangerous. Null-read, probably town then

fontisian: Suspiciously buddying Probellum. Got one "towny" post through before loose cannon(suspicious) Still, own behaviour more towny.

Dermon: The Kalas/Rubicon thing was bad, especially since I had hindsight. Keeps doubting Kalas is weird, too, but doesn't make him more likely to be scum. null-town

Bill Door: Suspicious day 1 Aekiel lynch. Timing of Kalas case bad.
I am apparently not seeing what you are seeing, though. Why are you so sure that Bill is scum?

Moridin: towny. Why was he scummy again?

LuckyLee: No words.... Maybe finally scum?


Zeit Proph Bill Dermon LuckyLee Caesar fontisian Moridin Vira Sesc blab

 

13 hours remaining. Can we get a votal, Kai?

 

"The best policy is to declare victory and leave."

-- George Aiken​

Current Vote Total:

Bill Door (3): Zeitgeist (#497), Moridin (#499), Sesc (#593)
Zeitgeist (3): Bill Door (#500), Fontisian (#533), blab (#569)
Dermon (2): Luckylee (#516), Vira (#518)
Fontisian (1): Prophylaxis (#492)
Luckylee (1): Dermon (#503)

Abstaining: Caesar

It requires 6 to lynch, 8 to auto-hammer.

As always, updated information can be found in the status document.

As of this post, day has 10 hours remianing.

=-=-=-=-=-=

Prophylaxis voted Fontisian (#492)
Fontisian voted Vira (#494)
Sesc voted Probellum (#495)
Zeitgeist voted Bill Door (#497)
Moridin voted Bill Door (#499)
Bill Door voted Zeitgeist (#500)
Dermon voted Luckylee (#503)
Luckylee voted Dermon (#516)
Vira voted Dermon (#518)
blab voted Moridin (#520)
Fontisian voted Zeitgeist (#533) | Previous Target: Vira
blab voted Zeitgeist (#569) | Previous Target: Moridin
Sesc voted Bill Door (#593) | Previous Target: Probellum

 

Sesc: I misread the description for the cards. Honestly, I believed that the dead witches could still converse with Demons and believed that if the Archdemon was expended, the next Priest check would automatically fail. Although I might have lacked those reading comprehension skills, I do believe that role-revealing as a Villager Oracle was a step forward for the Town.

Why? Now because fontisian, Probellum/blab, and Bill Door all look terrible at the moment, with Moridin as a back-up. Furthermore, we can ascertain whether Typhovira, Caesar, and the others are potentially Witches who are bussing, although I have getting a strong suspicion that the aforementioned three are highly suspicious.