I'm okay with the Moridin plan, as long as someone isn't lying about their role. But who should the lone survivor be?

We have:
Myself.
Font.
Zeit.
Blab.

I'm okay with it being me (of course). I don't want it to be Blab. I'm still iffy on Font, though I'd prefer her over Zeit considering that post he just posted. <_<

 

From my perspective it is
1. Rubicon/Lucky/Zeit/Vira
2. Rubicon/Lucky/Bill/fontisian
the other possible pairings (Bill/Zeit, Bill/Vira, Zeit/font) are unlikelier.

If we just lynch me there is a still a good chance of us winning in case 2. If we we do the Assasin plan I see us rather likely to loose in both cases, given that scum likely lied about roles (it really depends on the order of kills). So I am not convinced of a Assasin plan, since it's even worse than lynching me, much less lynching someone with a chance to be scum.

So yeah, I need some convincing on that being a good idea.

---------- Post automerged at 04:43 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:42 PM ----------

it's Assassin

 

Even if blab is scum, he is almost certainly the BOD. Zeit may be lying about his role (but isn't particulary likely to be) and Vira is the most likely to actually be lying. So, my ideal scenario would have Mori kill Vira, Zeit and blab in that order.

That way, if Vira is lying, two of Zeit, blab and I will still be able to lynch her toMorrow. That order also takes care of the scenario where Zeit and blab are trueclaiming scum, as blab wouldn't be able to give Zeit his extra life. We would still lose if Zeit and Vira are scum, and Zeit is lying about his role, but I'm willing to take that risk.

 

So... we would still loose in any case where Vira/Zeit is scum and we would loose if you are scum.
If that was supposed to convince me that this is preferable over just lynching me, it didn't

 

blab: We would lose if Vira and Zeit are scum and one of them is lying about their roles. Unless you can sell me on you being town right now, we'll most likely lose in any scenario with both Vira and Zeit as scum anyway. This at least would stop them from winning if they're trueclaiming scum.

---------- Post automerged at 05:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:37 PM ----------

Shit, we also lose if Zeit is scum and lying about his role.

---------- Post automerged at 05:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:40 PM ----------

I'm going to go over his claim again.

 

Let's assume Vira/Zeit are trueclaiming scum. Explain Lucky's claim and the gravedigger situation to me

 

What do you want me to explain exactly?

Presumably, Stojil was the gravedigger (at least, CPi worked that out and he understands the mechanics a lot better than I do). One of Vira or Zeit might actually be the apprentice, with the other being the oracle. Bill Door could have been the recluse, which would have allowed Vira to claim his role.

---------- Post automerged at 05:54 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:47 PM ----------

Ok, this. This is important.

I don't think Zeit was lying when he said he was afraid of the assassin. The important thing is whether that fear caused him to lie about his role, or if he was instead telling the truth and attempting to lynch a town assassin. I think he misunderstood the rules (as lynching an assassin after a trueclaim still allows them to kill the claimer) and was legitimately trying to kill the assassin, which indicates that he was telling the truth about his role. Add in the fact that unless the witches had the gravedigger, the only way he could have falseclaimed oracle is if it belonged to another witch.

 

I don't think a Lucky=survivor, Rubicon=Loose-cannon, Vira=Recluse, Zeit=oracle is all that likely. Both apprentice and gravedigger must have been town or dead. Lucky's claim also makes no sense.

While I don't entirely get why Bill has to be a witch, I still agree with "Apprentice still has to be a witch"

Trueclaiming scum Vira/Zeit makes very little sense, little enough for me to dismiss it.

So yeah, the point is, you're not going to sell me on a assassin plan that ensures a scum!font victory while the only advantage is that we would win if the team is Lucky/Vira/Bill/Rubicon which I already mentioned I think unlikely.

Therefore I would prefer a lynch on me over a assassin plan, (and a lynch on somebody else over a lynch on me, but given the sentiments yesterday, I think that's rather unlikely)


I also don't know how to sell that I am town to you. Nobody has even done a case on me and I haven't analyzed myself.

---------- Post automerged at 06:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:04 PM ----------

town or dead should be town and dead

 

blab: You realize that if Vira and Zeit are scum and we lynch you toDay, we lose anyway, right?

 

This is frustrating as hell. I want to lynch Blab, but now that we're down to so few players, I'm starting to second-guess myself.

There's only one scum left, because I'm not scum. If Zeit's scum, that's none of my business. So if we mislynch someone today, we'll have one more chance of killing scum. I don't even know what Day it is. I think it's six or seven. If it's the latter then I can't be killed toNight, which means if toDay doesn't finish the game off, I'll make it to the final three.

I guess I'll go with my gut.

Lynch Vote: Blab.

That's the second vote on him. A third one will hammer it. Please tread lightly.

---------- Post automerged at 06:37 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:37 PM ----------

Oh, I just noticed that the title says what Day it is. Never mind, then.

 

Vira and Zeit putting blab at L-1 right off the bat makes me very uncomfortable.

Vira: What do you mean by "If Zeit's scum, that's none of my business"?

 

If Zeit's scum, it has no bearing on me. I'm not scum, despite how people seem to be pairing us off as scum buddies (it doesn't help we only have Zeit's word for there being only one scum remaining).

tbh, though, it's between Blab and Font. I've put my faith in Zeit this entire game, so I'm not going to go back on that viewpoint despite my paranoia.

 

I can understand you dismissing the scenario with both you and Zeit as scum, but why are you completely disregarding the possibility of Zeit being the last scum or blab and Zeit being scum?

 

Why would Blab AND Zeit be scum? I've never considered that possibility. And I explained why I think Zeit is town many times. I'm not going to turn on him out of paranoia, which I seem to be wallowing in. I won't let that affect my decision making process.

 

Yes (well unless Moridin is super!assasin)
From my perspective:
1. Rubicon/Lucky/Vira/Zeit
assassin: we loose, unless both true-claimed (which, as I said is very unlikely)
blab!lynch: we loose, unless super!Moridin (and no recluse/gambler I guess)

2. Rubicon/Lucky/Bill/fontisian
assassin: we loose
blab!lynch: good chance to win

Unlikely pairs:

Zeit/font
assasin: loose
blab!lynch:loose

Vira/Bill
assasin: win
blab!lynch: loose

Now, since I have the unaligned pair Vira+Bill (which you agreed to, I think) you're not going to sell me on a plan that is worse than lynching me, (and obviously worse than lynching anyone someone that could be scum)

 

Vira: I don't know. But I was townreading blab early on, everyone except me seems to think that Zeit is obvious!town, and I thought you didn't work well with a Bill Door scumteam. I have to be wrong about something. Everytime I look at the thread, I change my mind, and you and Zeit immediately pushing for blab's lynch is not helping.

 

Oh, I forgot the team Bill/Zeit, which makes also no sense whatsoever, but your assassin plan would be better there too

 

Then who are we supposed to lynch, Font? You? We're down to five people, and I don't see much left to discuss. We could go in circles all day, but I'm going to stick to my gut and get my vote out of the way.

Moridin, are you still playing? You're town, so throw out an opinion or a vote or whatever.

 

Closing remarks:
Moridin is town.
Bill/Vira is unlikely for reasons I mentioned, but more likely than Bill/Zeit.
font/Zeit is also theoretically possible.
but I think Bill/font is the most likely combo followed by Vira/Zeit followed by Dermon/Zeit (though ChoPI has Lucky=survivor => Bill=witch)

Let's say I'm lynched. In fact thinking the possibilities through, I don't really think it's worth to bother to convince you to lynch fontisian today instead, just kill her tomorrow
Lynch: blab

When I die; I'll give my extra life to Moridin.

case a)
fontisian is alive tomorrow -> lynch her.

If you can't, it will be because Zeit refuses (because Vira/font is impossible), then font/Zeit is the scumteam, then font=apprentice, Zeit=oracle is the most likely combination.

If you can and that doesn't end the game:
if nobody was killed, I'd guess Zeit=oracle Vira=apprentice team.
if Zeit was killed, I'd guess at Vira=recluse/gambler/apprentice
if Vira was killed, I'd guess at Zeit=oracle.

If all three of you are still alive the next day, do the same thing as in b)

(unlikely) case b)
fontisian is dead tomorrow -> try to lynch Zeit, since one of (Bill/zeit, Dermon/Zeit, font/zeit) is more likely than Bill/Vira
If you can't, it's because Vira refuses, Vira is scum so try to assasin both.
If you can and it doesn't end the game, well, I'd guess Vira=apprentice.


Frankly, I think killing fontisian should end the game.

 

fontisian, I know that you're unlikely to be a Witch because of what Proph did, but the paranoia that you are inspiring tempts me sorely to lynch you. :/

Only one Witch remains. I have no reason to lie about it, and you and blab's insistence that I might be lying is distracting the town from finding the actual Witch.

If Moridin turns out to be the last Witch, I will laugh. In that case, he deserves to win.