I have been listening to a podcast that is covering GoT, and it got me thinking, at which point and what decisions would of put House Stark in the strongest position.

For this scenario I think we have to discount the White Walker threat as we don't know enough about it, but can play out the Wildling threat.

I think Ned being killed would still need to happen, as his death instigated The King in the North, which seems a plus over all.

Basically up until the point Rob breaks his deal with the Freys and Marries the Westerling girl. Throw in Edmures victory/loss to Tywin. Caitlins freeing of Jamie is a low point, but I don't think that would of happened with out the previous two.

If they above points never happen, Rob continues to trash the Westerlands, taking and looting/burning the odd castle but mostly looking at breaking them. Tywin passes back in the Westerlands to defend them, Rob does as much chaos and looting as he can on the way out before bursting back into the Riverlands.

With out Tywin and his army Stannis and his army take the Redkeep, kill Cersie and her kids (At least Joffrey keeping the others hostage). Stannis is now king of the Iron Throne and the seven kingdoms.

With him in power I don't think the Iron Islands rebel again, as they know Stannis, who was master of Ships and a war leader, would soon crush them, again. If they do go to war, they may even see the Westerlands as the weak target and try for them, even if they did go North, we see they can't hold it.

The wildling threat would be able to be dealt with in time, the Watch would likely suffer more but ultimately hold, hopefully Rob and Stannis would be able to reinforce it in time, Stannis likely purging Kingslanding and other areas of his enemies by sending them to the wall or death.

Tywin has no choice but to bend the knee, his lands have been ravaged and he is alone against most of the realm.

Rob and Stannis are unlikely to go to war, not sure how it would be resolved, but either way, Rob leads a stronger than ever North, has got a fair amount of loot and restitution from his wars, and forged closer ties with the Riverlands, and nominally with the Vale.

That seems to be the best outcome for House Stark, better than even Ned staying alive and never going South. The plots of Young Griff and Dani would still happen, but Rob and the North could stay as far away from it as possible.

 

Absolutely no way in hell Stannis accepts the Starks remaining independent. Rob either bends the knee or it's war.

 

Yeah I agree, and I don’t think Rob wants war, not over that, and he knows he wouldn’t win, best would be a costly stalemate.

Once Rob learnt the truth about the incest and that Ned actually supported Stannis he may be more willing to bend the knee.

 

You don't think Robb and the North are well past that point of no return? Robb doesn't have Targ pussy dangled at him to make a decision like that.

 

Robb has the North and the Vale.

Stannis has the Stormlands, likely the Reach, and the grudging support of the Westeralands who likely wouldn’t do a whole lot.

The Vale would stay neutral, and would lean of anyway towards Robb.

Iron Islands won’t do shit.

Dorne hates everyone. At the minimum they hate The North less.

Stannis would invade Riverlands which are super hard to defend. Robb would be left with the North.

 

'Left with'? What do you mean by that?

 

I think you're underestimating Tywin's strategic ability and ruthlessless. I think he would happily let the Westerlands burn if he saw strategic advantage in it, especially given that Casterly Rock itself is unlikely to fall anytime soon. He's not going to sacrifice a position of strength just to go and protect his own people. So I think he would still make the same choice as in canon of choosing to protect King's Landing from Stannis.

 

In the books he tried to go west, Robb and set the bait for him to chase after him and Tywin took it.

Edmures has been ordered to fall back to Riverrun and let him pass. But he didn’t know the whole plan and wanting glory engaged and beat back Tywin as he tried to cross the river. This caused Tywin to go south.

If Tywin hadn’t, or if he had literally been even 1 day later, Stannis would of taken Kingslanding.

 

Edmund deciding differently is probably the answer to this thread. Either by Robb being more open with his plans or Edmund just not making the same decision, Tywin's capture would not only prevent the Red Wedding but would have let Stannis win that battle.

 

I’m not sure Robb could capture Tywin, just lure him back west, then smash and burn his way out.