That would be much better. There's a lot of diplomacy that can be conducted during the build phase as builds can be indicative of what a player wants to do. I've seen people get killed because they built the wrong things thinking their "ally" would be making x instead of y.

 

Edi fleet, Lon Fleet.

 

ANALYSIS: 1901 FALL

Western Europe went about as expected. England secured his two builds, Germany returned his armies from the Russian front, and France secured Iberia.

The most curious move this turn would be France's move to Picardy. It indicates to me that France may be hedging his bets. The fact that he did not cover Brest from English Channel suggests he either outguessed England, or trusts England.

Also his orders to capture Iberia puts his fleet in portugal, instead of a more traditional A(SPA)-POR, F(MAO)-SPA SC. The traditional capture order allows a 1902 France to commit either East or West, (East by building 2 fleets in 1902, swinging Spain to W. MED, Marseilles to LYO, and BRE to MAO. With those moves, suddenly Italy is facing 3 fleets, the potential loss of Tyrhenian and Tunis afterwards, and an army could be convoyed to Tuscany even. The sheer number of threats such an unexpected attack could bring to bear would be devastating to the Italian cause, but I digress.)

France's commitment to the West means Italy is safe from and western attacks for now. So the question now is what France builds? And what Germany builds in response to that?

A 2 fleet France would be a strong indicator he's going after England, and a fleet-army build after Germany (while this could potentially still be a ruse against England, England is getting 2 builds this turn -likely fleets- which would make any invasion of England difficult if not impossible. To make matters worse, Russia seems to be abandoning the North, which leaves england master of Scandinavia by next year and Germany can only build the one unit. 4 fleets vs 4 fleets even if Germany and France ally vs England is not a good matchup for the continental powers and will launch them into a slow war they might not be able to afford with the volatile situation in the East.

England likely to build 2 fleets. Another army would have been good if the first army moved in spring and was convoyed out for the fall phase, but that didn't pan out ("Orders lost in transit my ass"). Given that's the case, 2 fleets would be better as one of those armies would be stuck in the mainland for 1902, wasting British Tax Pounds.

Germany's choice here is dependent on what France does. If France goes anti-Germany, then Germany can't do much but build a third army and pray. If France goes anti-England, Germany wants that 2nd fleet to try and contest Sweden. Further complicating matters is the Russia fleet in the Baltic Sea, which is creating all sorts of threats for Germany and practically forcing a Berlin build so that Denmark-Berlin-Kiel can all be covered by 2 units.

Russia's move into Baltic was good, but the question now is whether Russia wants to continue pursuing a war Germany isn't fighting anymore. It creates a lot of pressure on Germany, but with England on the Rise, Russia might appreciate a buffer state to buy him time while he cleans up in the East. The loss of Rumania was disappointing, and, I think, a failure of communication or trust between Germany/Russia. If Russia had known Germany was moving back and believed it, he could have held onto Rumania, which is more vital over taking Galicia this turn given it's Fall and Russia really wants that build.

Italy played it safe, which is to be expected, although I would have preferred a move like Trieste-Serbia to push your luck. Austria had no way of taking back Trieste without losing another center this turn in the retreat phase so denying Austria Serbia would have worked to your advantage. Also moving Venice to Tyrolia would have created a nice positional advantage for you and left Venice open to a fleet or army build, to either help support your attack or occupy the vital Adriatic Sea which would give you an incredibly advantage in the wars to come.

Turkey's move to Serbia was strange and the fact that Austria and Turkey's units did not come into conflict this year when they so easily could have suggests a level of coordination. Whether that turns into an alliance, or ends up being nothing more than just a temporary agreement remains to be seen. However, Italy should be wary he isn't being left out to dry here as a Turkey-Austria alliance would be dangerous to him (his natural counterweight to all this, of course, is Russia). Italy does have the advantage that France seems to be committing West, and so can rest easy on that front.

Austria and Turkey, through diplomacy most likely, managed to secure 2 centers each. For Austria, this means a potential alliance with Turkey and that you remain a player in the game rather than a failed state. For Turkey, 2 builds (where you usually only get 1) creates tremendous opportunity for you. Russian weakness in the East means a Turkey-Austrian alliance at this stage could likely take on and defeat a Russia/Italian pair. Austria would survive longer, and Turkey would become the dominant power in the East. Perhaps not the sole power, but certain primus inter pares. Turkey's builds will decide who he's going after.

Scoring:
England: B+
France: A-
Germany: B
Italy: C+
Austria: A
Turkey: A+
Russia: C

 

Nothing unexpected from the builds, but it does have interesting implications all around.

France going 2 armies is a heavy indication he's aligned with England vs. Germany. The fact that Germany built a second fleet hints that he believed France would side with him, otherwise the third army would have been better.

I think France should have built fleet brest army Paris instead, but that's not a strictly better build set. The second fleet gives France some much needed say over his own waters given he's bordered by two naval powers in England and Italy, and one rarely needs four armies this early in the game.

The other build of interest here is Turkeys Fleet in Ankara and army smyrna. Combined with Russia earlier fleet disband, this is a betrayal, and a master stroke for turkish diplomacy. It also signals a Turkish realignment with Austria, breathing new life into Austrias initially forlorn position.

Working together they have a marginal advantage vs Russia and Italy, because of having a slight local numerical advantage, a more compact position, and naval dominance in the black sea, and the time pressure on Russia and Italy with regards to their Western neighbors.

Though of course the team with better coordination will win the day.

Russias precarious position in the North and South may still be turned around in time and with solid diplomacy. He really needs a fourth army from the Sweden center this year, but whether or not England and/or Germany let's him in is a question. Neither have a direct incentive to let him in right now, though the power of a fleet in the baltic sea should not be underestimated as a bargaining chip. It may be used to solidify Germanys defense and reach temporary parity with English fleets, or to hasten Germanys downfall by supporting English fleets into Denmark and kiek and open a new front of attack on an already beleaguered nation.

 

/me stares at Germany

 

ANALYSIS:

England continues to do superbly. Only spot of criticism I have is that he did not support his move into the North Sea and that he did not bounce Russia in Sweden.

To the first point, Germany's NMR (No Moves Recorded) was fortuitous, but one does not generally plan around such things happening. A simple move by Germany's Denmark fleet into North Sea would have prevented England from taking that position, whereas the fleet in the English Channel is not so important right now, but it did work out.

To the second point, moving to Sweden was always going to be better, except in the case where Germany was going to support Russia (if England did suspect this, than the following criticism is invalid). Either it kept Russia from Sweden (allowing for a move into STP next turn if needed), or England secures Sweden as another front against Germany. Right now, Russia is aware of England's intentions as taking a home center usually means it's a lot harder to defend your actions not being war (vs a contested center), and Russia has threats on Sweden (easily countered, but it's better to give your enemies nothing).

France's moves are lacklustre. The fleet in Spain is pointless and should be in MAO instead. A Fleet in Spain North Coast is almost always worse compared to Spain South Coast, as it's only advantage is being able to reach Brest. This suggests France may be fearful on England.

The second thing I did not like was his passivity regarding Belgium/Ruhr. France should be expanding aggressively right now to secure his gains against Germany. If England grows to a point where France's participation becomes irrelevant, and that's quickly becoming the case with Germany's rapidly declining position and Russia become less of a factor each turn, then France will find his lack of fleets a severe weakness vs England and forced to fight a completely defensive (and losing!) war.

Germany did nothing. This may be the last nail in his coffin.

Russia's moves were fairly solid all around. Bad hand this turn, but securing Rumania would be useful, although his lack of response to Turkey's obvious betrayal is concerning. Russia also stands to lose STP this turn, and either Rumania or Sevastopol by fall. That will be a further disband, and at this point it's probably prudent to abandon the northern theater. I imagine there was some negotiation over Sweden, but likely did not succeed given England's actions.

Austria's moves are solid, almost exactly what I would have done except I would have moved from Budapest rather than Vienna. The threat to Rumania was fairly obvious, so leaving Budapest empty for a potential retreat was key. He's now down an army this turn and unlikely to get it back by the year's end, which might have meant the chance to retake Rumania instead of having to give it up to Turkey due to a lack of troops.

Italy moves are about as expected. There was no holding on to Trieste, but perhaps either a retreat to Tyrolia or a bounce in Albania would have been preferable to nothing. There was a serious need to coordinate with Russia, your obvious strategic ally given Turkey has betrayed Russia by building Fleet Ankara after the supposed de militarization of the Black Sea. Hard to say whether there was actual coordination given your troops are separated for now. Time will tell.

Turkey excellent moves and possibly enough to make you board leader. Your decision to betray Russia last turn was great, and now you're ensured to take either Sevastopol or Rumania next turn as Russia doesn't have the troops to defend both properly. It's also unlikely you can (or even should) move from Greece this turn except to move to the Ionian Sea (which will likely bounce Tyrhenian Sea) or lock Ionian from moving into Aegean / Eastern Med. Any outcome is good for you, because you likely pick up 2 builds this turn (possibly 3) and that means you now have a huge naval superiority over Italy by Spring 1903.

Turkey: A+
England: A-
Russia: B
Austria: B-
Italy: B-
France: C
Germany: F