Warning: wall of text. Dividing it into chapters of sorts could only help so much.

The Deaths
​

I didn't dislike the Klackerz's decision of lynching Fenraellis (although there were better targets in my eyes) and I doubt his "aim" has been redirected by the Vira on Day 1, although it could be possible if the Hermonies had a read on him and thought he was going to target one of them. It's unlikely, though. Lynching a lurker is usually a town decision and rereading Fenraellis' two posts didn't give me anything useful to figure out who he was. In the first one, he asked about the RNG and the possibility of a player to be given his DLP role (Fenraellis the Fenraellis?) and in the second he rambled a bit about Aekiel and Azira before voting for the former.

From Lungs’ stuff about Fishy Justice and Mishie “killing themselves” after the deaths of Zenzao and Azira respectively, I think we can say with certainty that both “couples” were connected roles and connected kills, thus narrowing the “couples” down to the MattSilver/Lutris and the two OTPs, and ascertain that the Palindrome has used her ability to off the OTPs and that the Lutris was the player to be targeted by the night kill. Only with these scenarios you can explain Fishy Justice and Mishie “killing themselves”.

I think you guys are also making lots of mistakes and/or actions of misdirection. Unless you think the Hermonies didn’t use their night kill (which is different from and unrelated to the Palindrome OTP kill), then the scum faction has to have used NECESSARILY its power on one of the four dead players of the night, because survived night kills/lynches are reported in the thread and we have none. Two of those players are to be excluded because they were the OTPs and they were offed by the Palindrome, while the two remaining are MattSilver and Lutris, and only the death of the latter would cause the death of the former, not viceversa.

The Scenarios
​

Now, here is what I think could have happened. Aekiel, I’m assuming from your lack of further explanation that you incarcerated Mishie like you had told us before the end of day. If you come out now to say you actually incarcerated Azira… well, you’re already the scummiest player in this game, so if you want to add to the “evidence” and “clues”, be my guest.

If Azira and Mishie were the Lutris and the MattSilver:

1) Mishie was the Lutris and when Aekiel put him in the Asylum, the MattSilver Azira was forcefully entered as well. This means that the Irene didn't use her incarcerating power (dead Fenraellis?) or that she "wasted" it on Azira. In this scenario, either the Moridin has targeted the Lutris Mishie, thus killing both him and the MattSilver Azira, or the Hermonies did (much more likely). The Palindrome used her OTP kill to off Zenzao and Fishy Justice.

2) Azira was the Lutris and the Irene put him in the Asylum, while Aekiel incarcerated the MattSilver Mishie (he would have ended up in the Asylum regardless). In this scenario, either the Moridin has targeted the Lutris Azira, thus killing both him and the MattSilver Mishie, or the Hermonies did (much more likely). The Palindrome used her OTP kill to off Zenzao and Fishy Justice.

If Azira and Mishie were OTPs, instead:

3) Aekiel incarcerated Mishie and the Irene incarcerated Azira. The Palindrome used her OTP kill to off them both, while the Hermonies (or various unlikely one-shot abilities) targeted the Lutris Zenzao, thus killing both him and Fishy Justice.

Aziraphale
​

What were Azira and Mishie then? OTPs and Zenzao and Fishy Justice were the Lutris/MattSilver? Or the opposite? There's too little from Zenzao and Fishy Justice to judge. Mishie and Azira were much more "on stage", so to speak.

Azira soft-claimed a power role in his campaign for the Mayorship. We can exclude the Irene because he ended up in the Asylum with partner (in this case OTP) Mishie and no one else.

So the possibilities I see are:

1) Azira was the Lutris, which means it was scenario 1. With the Mayorship he would have gotten an extra life, thus protecting the MattSilver who dies if he dies, and with the possible jwlk’s power used on him (fairly likely since usually Mayors are under a lot of scrutiny), the thing of “the MattSilver dies whenever I die” would disappear (together with discovering who the KaiDASH is on day 3, though). (Reminder: if the jwlk checks you during the day phase, you lose your oneshot abilities.)

2) Azira was the KaiDASH, made OTP by the Hermonies with Mishie, which means the third scenario is the true one, with Zenzao and Fishy Justice being the Lutris and the MattSilver.

3) Azira was the Moridin, whose power of killing someone in the Asylum would have gone hand in hand with the Mayor’s power of putting players there. It also would mean the third scenario is the true one, with the Hermonies necessarily making the kill.

4) Azira was the Zeitgeist, made OTP by the Hermonies with Mishie, which means the third scenario is the true one. This can be possible only if:
a) The Irene was Fenraellis and couldn’t be rolerevealed upon Azira’s death because she was dead.
b) The jwlk used his power on him on Day 1, thus deleting the oneshot “ability” of having the Irene revealed upon his death.

5) Azira was another townie role, hence a bluffing idiot.

6) Azira was OTP scum.
a) The Jon would have risked losing his oneshot kill because of the jwlk checking him. Plus, it’s probably not a role you want to draw attention to with the Mayor title, extra life be damned.
b) The SmileOfTheKill has a bunch of useful oneshot abilities he would lose if checked by the jwlk. It’s also not a role you want to draw attention to with the Mayor title, extra life be damned.
c) The Vesvius has protection already and a couple of useful oneshot abilities.

Another angle to tackle this would probably be:

The OTPs
​

Who did the Hermonies give the OTPs “roles” to? The decision was to be made before the start of the game.

Azira and Mishie are very experienced players. I can’t recall any of Mishie’s games except the first DresdenMafia (in which he died on night 1) but the Mishie is even a role in this game and, from opinions of other experienced players, I’m assuming he’s been capable and in a lot of these. Azira is experienced too, so much so that many people considered voting him for Mayor despite the other big names in the game.

Zenzao is on his third game, while SneakThief/Fishy Justice is a bit more experienced, I think.

Pro of giving OTPs to the first couple: get rid of two experienced players whenever you want, night 1 for example, as just happened. There are probably what most would consider “bigger names”, though (no offence Azira/Mishie), but this could work well with the idea that the Palindrome OTP kill doesn't bypass protection. This means that if the Hermonies had chosen very threatening players with layer-protected roles, their OTP kill could have been stopped and those players would have stayed alive and communicating. Choosing midway between extremely experienced and inexperienced players would work well.
Con: give two experienced players a shared QT. If your plan is to kill them on night 1, though, it’s an acceptable con, I believe.
Others: metagaming reasons I know nothing about.

Pros of giving OTPs to the second couple: semi-inexperienced players share the QT.
Cons: getting rid of two semi-experienced players whenever you want, while there are more juicy targets.

I’m not sure which couple is which, but either way, the question still remains the same:

Why did the Hermonies get rid of the OTPs on night 1? We’re sure this happened, it’s not debatable, unless I’m missing something.

They gave the Palindrome a huge protection. If the plan was to kill them immediately from the beginning, then I don’t know if the Hermonies would have picked either couple, instead of more threatening names… unless those “more threatening names” were Hermonies themselves (hello there, Aekiel and Ashaya). If the plan wasn’t this from the beginning, then something must have happened in the game. Azira and Mishie creating trouble for the Hermonies comes to mind (hello again, Aekiel, Ashaya and maybe Seratin). If not, maybe they got a good read on one OTP, deemed his role too dangerous and ganked him before he had time to do damage.

Or maybe they simply thought that killing two enemies immediately was worth losing that kind of protection, which, I remind everyone, isn't just an extra life. As long as the OTPs are alive, the Palindrome can only be killed with a piercing-protection attack. It seems too good to let go of it so soon without a very good reason.

Perhaps because Ashaya the Hermonie knew that Azira was an OTP? Maybe that’s why Mishie called her and Aekiel out for it, because, being one of the OTP, he was actively searching for strange behaviour against him and his “partner”. We surely have that from Aekiel and Ashaya. This could also be an explanation for the scummy post of the next chapter.

The scummy post(s)
​

I gave this post a thumb-up because I had noticed that too.
I gave this post a :facepalm because of how he only pointed his finger without explaining. That’s anti-town, Azira, if you were the Lutris or a town OTP, shame on you. Either you make a case against them or you let it pass to gather more ammo to throw at them. That hinting post was counter-productive.

Anyway, this is what I believe he wanted to draw our attention to. Directly from my QT before this damn night, because I can’t be bothered to rearrange it after all I already wrote:

Aekiel, Ashaya, Seratin and Taure: there's a team in there, I think, be it scum or Lutris/Matt. Seratin was the first to nominate Taure as Mayor and Ashaya followed swiftly. Aekiel then nominated himself, gathered a bit of support (the switching Seratin too) and squared off more or less evenly with Azira. Then Taure switched to Aekiel as well, soon mirrored by Ashaya. Finally, Mishie pressed on Ashaya a little and she pushed back. Aekiel then mentioned him in his lynching-possibility list, Seratin pointed his finger as well and Ashaya said "I doubt he (Mishie) would be THAT obvious", which isn't a defence but a subtle way to keep on accusing him. Seratin lynch-voted him, Ashaya voiced her distrust more openly and Aekiel voted for Kalas in a hilarious attempt to appease me (that's my interpretation of it, anyway). But really, look at this, post #155:

Bold parts mine (not the vote, of course). What about Mishie, then, who he fingered as scumbuddy with Azira? The fact he was about to incarcerate him is a moot point, really, "since it's end of the day and nobody looks to be lynched". Kalas' name came out of nowhere judging by Aekiel's posts, having never been mentioned by him, and he didn't give any reason but the classic "odd vibe", or so it seems. When I accused Kalas to get to him, he had even piped in to defend himself and Kalas by proxy, pretty much eliminating my main reason for calling Kalas scum. So why vote like this?

1) To not vote for Mishie like scumbuddy Seratin (bravo Azira for warning them B0 ).
2) To try and fend some of my suspicions off himself.
3) Some other reason I can't see and that he didn't explain, which could possibly mean he's town (unlikely, I will believe he's not scum only if he comes out of my computer and tells me he's God and to believe in him... in short, a miracle).

The vote
​

Deadline Lynch Vote: Ashaya

Die an early death, would you? I would prefer Aekiel but you guys voted him Mayor and gave him an extra life. <_<

I hope Irene will put him in the Asylum and Moridin will gank him, though.

 

Okay, going the Irene route, are we? I think there are a lot of holes in your logic, but I'm on my phone and I won't be around to post for Idk how long. Lynch me, I guess, though FYI, I made mishie part of the lovers in one game before. If he was part of the otp, that's why he'd be so suspicious of me. I wouldn't have paired mishie with someone ever again after that, though.

 

Not entirely correct. There were four probable kill methods: the Jon's oneshot (unlikely to be used so early), the Hermonie nightkill, the Palindrome OTP-kill, and the Moridin asylum-kill (which you ignore here, but point out later on, for some reason).

If you accept that the Moridin didn't act (which does seem reasonable, unlikely the Hermonies would choose not to NK), it still seems a bit unlikely that the Hermonies would kill off Zenzao/Fishy OTP so early, but potentially possible.

Again, this selective-Moridin-memory crops up again; either the Palindrome OTP-killed first night, or the Moridin killed Azira.

I do think it's more likely that mishie/Azira were OTP, given that Hermonie NK + (Moridin or OTP) seems more probable than OTP + (Hermonie NK or Moridin).

3) here seems to most reasonable, if he was both town and legitimate in his mayoral claims, and would agree with my OTP suspicions.

Again, it wasn't nesc. an OTP-kill, and we both agree that an OTP-kill this early seems unlikely, but you're again selectively ignoring the Moridin and painting Aekiel, Ashaya, and maybe Seratin as scum.

Doesn't make sense, to me: ability to kill the mayor at any time would be quite useful to the Hermonies, you'd think. In a tradeoff between that and the mayor having a shared QT, not entirely clear cut.

This does seem weird, I agree. Alternative suggestion: he was planning to commit mishie, and there'd never have been a consensus given the way the vote was, rendering it purely symbolic. "Since I'm commiting Mishie, vote for second-most suspicious?"

Dunno, doesn't sound particularly plausible to me either. It is quite suspect.

 

QUESTION: Does Vesvius' Modkill kill when correctly used?

 

Hmm, forgot about that, interesting if it does. Best guess, if it does kill and was used, would be on Azira (instead of the Moridin's asylum-kill). Lungs?

 

Yeah. I think so. :facepalm

The ModKill is a public kill mechanism. If it is used at night, I would say:

X Player ModKilled Player Y the Role Z during the morning.

If it is used in the middle of the Day, I'll announce it instantly.

If it is used in Night Phase 1, I'll announce it at the beginning of Night Phase 2. Etc, etc.

 

I'm not at home and I have little time, but Jangel, what you say doesn't make sense.

The Palindrome OTP kill MUST have happened for any of it to make sense.

Let's say Mishie and Azira were OTPs and Zenzao/Fishy were Lutris/Matt.

To have Fishy "kill himself" after Zenzao would mean that the Lutris Zenzao was killed. Needed night kill = 1 (unknown).

To have Mishie "kill himself" after Azira would mean the Palindrome OTP-killed them. It doesn't work with any other kill-power. The OTPs don't both die if one of them is killed. This happens only if the Palindrome uses her ability. Needed night kill = 1 (necessarily the Palindrome OTP-kill).

This means that only the death of Lutris needs an explanation. If you think the Hermonies wouldn't have used their normal night kill, then it's possible it was the Moridin in the Asylum or any other role with a night kill. If you think that the Hermonies would obviously use their normal night kill, then no other kill was used (effectively) last night.

Survived night kills and lynches are posted in the thread.

The other thing that could have happened was for two roles to target the same player and only one of them being the decisive kill, while the other becomes wasted on an already dead player.

Unless Lungs' roles and powers description is wrong. I can't quote from where I am, but look it up under the Palindrome.

---------- Post automerged at 08:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:45 PM ----------

Oh fuck.

I derped.

It does say that if one dies the other does too...

Anyway the final points about the Hermonies' night kill and the survived attempts posted in the thread still apply.

 

I'm back, currently the most suspect post was by jwlk (the player)

Please people refer to roles as The Jon I've seen at least two posts where people didn't do it and I couldn't tell if they were talking about roles or if they maybe knew something we didn't.

I'd say Happy Valentine's Day but the OTP seems to have been killed

Currently Stojil looks like he's either innocent or the greatest scum player since Jon himself. I'm leaning towards innocent but he still merits watching.

 

Jangel, the Moridin selective-memory happened because I was working under the assumption that only the Palindrome OTP-kill was capable to off both OTPs, while any other kind of kill would only eliminate the single target.

Anyway, now I'm really going (out with my date, you tossers).

 

I'm going to agree with Gambit on this one and say Stojil is looking pretty extremely protown. Although it could be a master plan and he is a very very determined scum.

One person I am going to keep my eye on is Snowflake. He hasn't posted anything (well he has posted but he hasn't contributed) besides making a mayor vote for Aekiel and the only reason is that Aziraphale always seems scummy. He's keeping up the number of posts he needs but really staying out of any discussion, maybe trying to keep the focus off of him?

 

That makes sense, then. Agree with most of the rest of your post.

Gambit, care to expand on that, re: jwlk's post?

On lurkers/empty posters: Republic21, Snowflake, Smile, Vesvius, Kens...

Aekiel's probably foremost for me right now (asylum/lynch today/tonight?) unless he can come up with some good explanation. Regardless of if he can, we should look at the lurkers.

~26 hours left

 

That's funny, coming from you. Especially after you scrambled to post right after I called you out on lurking.

 

I'm sorry, but lol.

1) Posted more in both postcount and actual content than you had when you posted that. Let's see what you've contributed. An empty mayor vote, some shit poetry, response to said shit poetry, a "d'aww, people died, and there's no role reveal ", and this nonsense, nothing.

2) Scrambled to post right after you called me out? What scramble? 8 posts and 12 hours, after I'd woken up and had time to think it through.

3) You post to attack me, within 10 minutes, so you're clearly here and reading the thread, and yet still don't contribute. Can only conclude you're actively keeping silent.

Step off.

I can't believe I even responded to this. Decent candidate to fuck off today, imo.

 

the Palindrome

Recurring Abilities:

• If Ashaya is dead, you may buy plane tickets.
• Checks Guilty
• Checks Sane
• Shares a QT with other Hermonies

Oneshot Abilities:

• At the beginning of the game, you may declare an OTP - those two people will share a QT. Neither of the participants may be Hermonies. If one person in the OTP dies, they both do.
• At any point in the game, you may kill a member of the OTP (does not pierce protection).
• As long as the OTP survives, you have one layer of protection.
• If a member of the OTP is an Ex-Mod, the other one joins the Ex-Mods.
• If a member of the OTP is a King, the other one joins the King.

 

Yeah, I am still working. It sounds like the Moridin used his power instead of ze Jon. I am not lurking, leave me alone till this night. Hell, I still don't know exactly what I will be able to say.

 

Yes, repeating theories and commenting a bit is awesome contribution, bravo. Claim town by contributing, sure, that makes a lot of sense.
More than my contribution, admiteddly, but then I was never very good in the detective, Irene, stuff that run rampant in mafia games. Conveying my suspicions and combing posts is not something I'm very eager to do, but I never lurk.
Theories on the Night Kills, what about them? The way I see it, the only way four people could die is a OTP kill + the Lutris kill. I find it very unlikely that the Jon would waste his kill this early, and the majority of the kills take more than two Days or Nights.
The palindrome kills the OTP, Hermonies kill the Lutris.
A question though, does the Palindrome's "at any point in the game" mean it can be done at the same time as the Night Kill? If not, what else could kill the Lutris?
The way Azira was playing he was either scum or role for which he would risk acting like this in his campaign.

Of course you'd want to lynch me. Anything for a quick, easy Townie lynch, no?

---------- Post automerged at 04:41 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:39 PM ----------

Moridin's 'every two nights' kill, can be used in Night 1? Seriously?

 

Wow, some massive TL;DRs going on here.

There are two main things I'd like to point out.

1. Uncle Stojil, wrt to your post connecting me, Aekiel, Ashaya and Serachin, I think you're stretching things somewhat. All you've got to link us together is that we all didn't like Azira, and that there was a brief "Taure for mayor" bandwagon. If that was enough to show certain people being on the same team then we'd have dozens of different (contradictory) teams. Besides, if we were really on the same team, do you think we would have all voted together like that? No, scum always distribute their votes so as to not be seen as a unified group. And while I suppose we are due a scum team pulling a big bluff and all voting together on something like this, that hasn't happened this time. So there.

2. WHY IS EVERYONE IGNORING THE MORIDIN? The Jon kill is so unlikely that I think we can discount it. Palindrome OTP kill seems unlikely on players who are already in the asylum (and thus, effectively removed from the game, at least for the time being). So that leaves the Moridin kill, used on Azira, also taking out Mishie. And the other two are explained as being the Lutris and Matt.

It couldn't be that Zenzao and Fishy Justice were the OTP killed by Palindrome and Azira and Mishie were Lutris and Matt killed by Moridin. If that had been the case then when Azira was put in Asylum then the Matt would have been too. And we know that it couldn't be that Azira was the Matt and Mishie the Lutris because then they wouldn't have died together when Azira was offed.

SO

It has to be that We have lovers Azira and Mishie killed by Moridin kill, and Zenzao and Fishy Justice, Lutris and Matt, killed by night kill (targeted on Zenzao).

Now that that's cleared up, time to think of who to lynch tonight.

Uncle Stojil is suspicious because of his apparently deliberate ignoring of the Moridin, but I think it's a bad idea for us to go around killing all the most active players. So I say give Stojil a reprieve for now.

Republic21 sure is eager to point fingers at pretty much everyone else, and such behaviour automatically makes one wonder what he's trying to distract us from.

However, for my lynch vote I'm going to go for Snowflake, simply because I can't remember right now what s/he has done in the game so far.

Deadline vote: Snowflake

 

Everything that can be used "Every X day" can be used on Day 1. Cooldown is pre-charged.

 

I want to lynch taure, but I know he doesn't deserve it since he's making points that only help town. Unless Stojil and Taure are (part of) a faction and therefore playing the entire group of players to get attention from some crucial mistake we haven't spotted (this is very unlikely)

we've got less than 24 hours left so we should probably start a Lynch vote going but I've not spotted anyone who's really scummy yet.

 

For the record, I went ahead and put Mishie in the Asylum. Whether he was OTP or one of Lutris and Matt is not something I know, though Taure missed out that Lutris doesn't follow Matt into the Asylum. Lutris goes to the Asylum if Matt is killed. However, it could be that Aziraphale was put into the Asylum by the Irene (which wouldn't really be surprising, given his implosion yesterday), which I admit is highly unlikely.