holy shit so we were 1 vote away from ending the day 24+ hrs early?

umm yeah imma spend the next hour or two just rereading this game in full bc I feel pretty lost

 

LochNess why did you never answer my question about VCA and you saying you like numbers and hard data to do analysis and then you not doing that?

 

short thoughts through first 200 posts again

1. koalas is almost surely town
2. I like jan more on reread, I understand his points more now for whatever reason
3. i think i want to kill kaidash more than rubicon
4. i wish i could hide newcombs posts because they're making me think he's mafia again
4. with certain assumptions I can understand lochness' early play as being town, which is problematic as it implies I have too many town

town are like
delphine
koalas/tn

fuck.

i'm going to lose this game.

---------- Post automerged at 16:51 ---------- Previous post was at 16:50 ----------

lol at having two number 4's

Vote: KaiDash

 

No shit, guy who posted #969.

Ok, shifting some reads around based on the last few pages. Here are my thoughts right now.

LochNess is someone I initially townread, but of the living players, I think her and Kai had the worst posts about Prophylaxis. Her position with respect to that wagon was terrible:

This oozes "scum whiteknighting someone they know will flip town".

She isn't pushing scum. She's also not pushing me. She's just kind of there. She has the fewest posts of anyone alive. She pops in every now and again to post something vaguely artificial sounding and then pops out again.

There are a lot of reasons why KaiDASH is mafia. "lurking, sheeping, more lurking and more sheeping" is a great description is un-KaiDASH enough to ping on its own. Also like LochNess, he kept distance between himself and the Prophylaxis wagon and never talked about it much. When he did, he just brushed off Proph's defense as underwhelming. On D2 it was just "in fontisian we trust" - more sheeping, coasting on the popular wagon, not adding anything of his own - and that was the extent of his attempt to figure out the game. That's another thing, by the way, he kind of slid into a townread on fontisian for unknown reasons? Even back before the end of day one, he was like "hey fontisian thinks I'm town, that's enough for me". I can't imagine that's something you say when you genuinely care about sorting other players.

A lot of his questions seem purposeless / leading in some way. He's way more under-the-radar than usual.

I do think he probably has at least one partner he thinks can win, based on his play.

^ this again just feels purposeless and considering the timing is probably a half-assed attempt to hit back at me.

When several people call me scum for doing something, I think pointing out that there's no scum motivation for doing the thing is reasonable.

There's a group of players here who have played enough games to have seen joke gambits before, and all of them recognized it except for you, apparently.

so on the one hand I decided a while back to try to be less paranoid about Newcomb because he was doing his traditional Town Things -- going out on limbs, coming up with his own theories and pushing them even when other people disagree, instead of just going with the flow --

But one of my favorite scumtells is when people ignore clear counterevidence to the wagon they're pushing. Like here, when he does VCA based on where votes were counted versus where they were actually cast. I'm especially concerned that he used this logic to dismiss KaiDASH as a shitgoblin instead of mafia, and hasn't updated that read. It stretches my suspension of disbelief because how do you read #871 and then completely discard it? That was a damn important post to just ignore.

Jan's reason for voting me is silly, but much easier for me to believe he believes since it's based on something that actually happened. Aside from that, I've liked enough of his recent analysis to move him closer to town. I would however like to know why he has dismissed what I consider a damn good explanation for end of d1 posts and is posting stuff like this ^

--

If fontisian is scum, she's pulling off the best game of her life. If she's still around in LyLo, take another look at her, but so far she's managing to hit basically all her town markers so probably town. If she's scum, I ain't even mad.

I don't think she'd have swung off Prophylaxis if they were both scum, and nothing that's happened since then has changed that impression.

I'd also probably bet the game on Delphine being town, considering her level of (1) effort, (2) paranoia, and (3) the little details she picks up on and asks about.

 

lochness is towny. good questions about jan/delphine, casual/honest tone, slight aggression doesn't read self-conscious to me.

216 is a little scarily prescient wrt proph but there are just too many little comments that read towny.

like look at 225. what fucking mafia starts talking about a scumread in fonti doing something risky that she'd only want to do if she had self-protection as mafia LOL wtf?!??!??

i don't think she's ever with fonti or has TMI about the team because feigning that sort of ignorance about partners' powers seems outside her range, based on what i've gathered from her other posts.

so if koalas is town, lochness is town... i guess i'm curious what delphine saw in lochness early and prompted her to tell everybody to keep up the pressure on her if she died early?

also newcomb pushing on her now seems kinda ehhhhh. she hasn't been the most active and her follow-up may be questionable, but I think you're being a bit mechanical here and not really trying to understand her?

---------- Post automerged at 17:33 ---------- Previous post was at 17:28 ----------

rubicon i disagree with you on lochness, but maybe I am wrong - i was also pretty irked by her proph comment, and our little xpost was nice, I agree with you on kaidash (let's lynch him) and I agree with you on newcomb (he's a viable next, fonti be damned)

also agree on jan and delphine for now. i don't really see fonti, personally, but whatever. idk, things will change based on how today goes down.

 

well. I'm wagoned more often these days, probably because I've started to get less invested in the outcome of individual games. I still love mafia, but I'm kind of developing an "it's just a game" attitude? Which tends to change the tone of my posts.

Like I used to obsess over the risk of being wrong and hated to mislynch people. This year I've started to see those things as a normal part of the game, and even an important step towards getting more info and figuring things out.

I also used to take it as a personal insult when people mislynched me, but I just give fewer fucks these days.

re: lynches, see above.

 

one hundred billion percent this btw.

 

I do not believe you have a strong enough read on me to be this sure. Explain.

 

Newcomb- Where is the VCA question? I can't find it.

I am also comfortable lynching kaiDash instead of Rubicon, and feel the people voting for him so far feel town (Jan and dLGN).

I'm starting to worry that Rubicon is sort of like me and has a lot of real life commitments which limits giant or tons of interactions in the game. IF it comes down to it, I will vote him, but for now:

Rescind Vote, Vote KaiDash

Want to see if this wagon is growing, maybe we will actually have two different bandwagons which is what makes the numbers a lot easier to look at in my opinion.

---------- Post automerged at 05:45 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:44 PM ----------

Wait that wasn't bolded.. no fake voting

Rescind Vote: Vote KaiDash

 

Uhhh dlgn there wasn't much specific on D1 about Loch that made me worried (her read on me, her stance on Prophy being the exceptions.) I liked her D1; I explained why earlier Today. It was just noticing that her D1s as scum seemed stronger than late game and a general vibe that people were lazily townreading her idk. I super hated her post about Jan today is why I'm paranoid all of a sudden rn.

I agree with Rubicon on this page about Kai. I feel like he could do better about pressuring Jan if that were something he had legitimate conviction about, and his general behavior Today seems to show that there's less, idk, going on beneath his idgaf surface than I thought w/r/t trying to actually figure out who the sleeper scum he seems to believe there is.

But I'm weighing what fonti is saying as well.

---------- Post automerged at 02:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:49 PM ----------

Rubicon - dLGN read please? Thought I asked about that (well was prob in a wall.)

---------- Post automerged at 02:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:51 PM ----------

fonti - TN is more active as town, but as both alignments seems kind of...rigid in his thinking and makes mental leaps I don't follow. I mislynched him a lot when I first met him.

He is reinforcing my (possibly bad) townread on Kalas though.

 

Going to a Leaf game with fam right now.. We will probably lose.. but I'll be around tonight after or try and check in

 

rubicon just called you scummy, lochness

do you have a response to his comments about your play?

---------- Post automerged at 17:58 ---------- Previous post was at 17:54 ----------

rubicon do you find kaidash's treatment of fonti significantly different from newcomb's?

 

Agree that KaiDASH is higher priority.

Well, I'm sure as hell not going to tell you everything you do differently as town. Frankly I need every advantage I can get.

The cliff notes is: you've made pushes that seem counterproductive if you're mafia, you make posts saying stuff at the exact moment I think the same thing, there are little details in the way you phrase your posts that are consistent with a town mindset that as good as you are I think you'd still struggle to fake, etc.

iirc there are more specifics in my ISO.

I could be wrong, but I don't think this is the time to worry about it. You'll probably get shot sooner or later anyway.

A lot of what he says seems organic and town.

He loses points for letting people believe his joke when I was at L-1 though since someone could easily have hammered.

 

so he's out of your PoE?

 

^lol fair XD

 

hm. Newcomb also grabbed onto an early townread when I don't think it was nearly as clear that fontisian was town. But he's had some progression to the read, and he did show some paranoia about her earlier iirc so yeah.

 

what's your current POE?

---------- Post automerged at 18:05 ---------- Previous post was at 18:03 ----------

weird, i feel like there has been virtually zero paranoia from newcomb about her. he's just found odd reasons to call her lock clear tbh and continues to blindly follow and only verbally waffle about things that don't seem to add up while staying the (likely bad, at least from your pov) course.

 

dLGN about Rubicon posting to me-

I still agreed with what I said in the post where everyone thinks it is really bad. 216? Maybe I'm just bad at this game but, yeah I did think well there is a chance he could be scum if we randomly pick 1 player on day one and start voting on him for reasons I didn't agree with. I think it's usually 25% scum? So a 25% chance- so I thought the chance is lower that he isn't scum, considering there is no counter wagon being made at all and everyone seemed to go with it. Whatever, bad post apparently but that was why I didn't vote for him.

Yes I've posted less, which is one of Rubicon's things. Well no one can know, I do follow the rules about not lying about real life. As far as I can remember, I've never been a giant wall type poster (someone who has read all the old mafias, correct me if I'm wrong). So I've been busy, which is why I haven't posted as much, not because I think it is a super scum strategy..

As far as my posts seeming calculated- I post what I think when I read things. What can I say?

 

thanks lochness, enjoy the game