Hrrmmm I still like Waco doubling down on Tom's point about aggression early when I was pushing tom over it. That is a very confident play to make as scum.

This post feels solid as well. It's pretty light (calling two townies unaligned) but I like it poking at Keldeo (obviously though this is partially me confirmation biasing because of my Keldeo read though).

Here is one that I really liked at the time I thought it was pushing Umami for good reasons. Obviously looks a bit worse with them flipping town but I don't think it's bad.

He starts setting up to push fire pretty early which has an aroma of agenda to it. Not a red flag but a minor ping.

There really isn't much to his D2 but I don't find that particularly worrying. It's not nothing just not a lot.

 

Gun hype!!

I had a hard time digesting EOD because of the April Fools stuff but I'll be here fully in a few hours.
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For sure lol, I barely did any work yesterday. I have a lot more time today I think.
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Is this based on the "feeling dejected" from mid-yesterday, or are there other things you pull into it? I want to get to town on MP7 if he is town but I don't... entirely see that read. idk.

#sillyread is that Cuth would pay more attention to his partners and their place in the thread to have that misconception about MP7 subbing in if they were w/w.
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Sorry, I'm not sure what you mean here. Sera wasn't clearing Miner, he was advocating for Miner's lynch, wasn't he? In what way does that not make sense [for a wolf?] tactically?

 

I lied, something came up, but I'll absolutely be around a lot tomorrow. ISOs and stuff. See you all then!

 

Correct, but he was also calling the people who moved at the EoD to Umami scum for moving and not resolving Miner on D1. Given how few uncleared people didn't move that would be putting suspicion on his buddies.
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For reference. About to go tally up who changed votes again.

 

Wow, no one said hi to me.

I'll just fuck off.

 

Hi Cobalt! Cute puppy!

Oh, I see. I don't really want to put much weight on this because of his absence, but I guess the reason I can't get into this is because he prioritized lynching Miner, and he didn't really follow up on it by naming suspects or anything. And I feel like [tom, MP7, me, Fluff, Sloth, Waco] is a large enough group that he could definitely have pushed whoever wasn't his partners in that group.

Spoiler: Votecounts

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In "I don't really want to put much weight on this", "this" is my read that I state above.
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No egg, MP7.

I echo MP7's thoughts that we should try and shoot mafia, but I think this train of thought is like, relatively pure from Grape.

 

Alright as of 387 the core wagon on Miner was:

There were no votes on Umami.

By 497 the wagon had ballooned and there was no one else with more than one vote.

561 gave us the start of the Umami wagon thanks to yours truly and Tom.

Very quickly things changed to 591

And further to 642

Before finally settling with the following as the final.

So I'm having a hard time making sense of scum!Sera intentionally drawing suspicion off Osie and Miner into the large group that voted Umami. I remember having reasons for Fire/Sera to be unaligned but I don't know them now. Cuth I think is town.

And the only actual vote changers from the Peak are Waco and Keldeo. M+7, myself, and Fluff were never on the Miner/Gemma wagon during the snapshots of the VC. This screams that Sera is town to me. Probably need to look more skeptically at Rhand though unforunately.
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@Keldeo The lack of follow up makes it much harder to read into but you are correct. I probably should not write the slot off as town over it, but I'm comfortable giving town credit for it.
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GTH reads for myself
Fluff
Cuth
M+7
Sera/Waco
Sloth
Rhand
Keldeo
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Waco and Cobalt are weird to me right now. Both have reasons to town read them that are probably flimsy but I very much believe but not enough content for me to feel confident. Whereas sloth has a bunch of vaugely positive content but nothing that I can point to and say "this is strongly townie".

Rhand I want to like for the Sloth case but it's about the only thing he's done this game. And without looking I can't remember a single post by fire.
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In retrospect I think I weirdly feel better about M+7 than Cuth. But I feel good about both. Their "finding each other" moment at the end of yesterDay felt legit. I should probably see if they make sense as buddies at some point to make sure I'm not getting pocketed by them.
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One problem with looking at the voting record is we haven't seriously threatened scum with a wagon yet so the movements won't be as informative as they normally would. I don't think the movement on D1 is saying much in general but I think it doesn't make sense for scum!Cobalt.

 

God I hate responsibility.

I'll talk about this tomorrow.

 

Like, this would make sense to me as a reason to boost him up, but he did continue to keep suspicion on Miner:

I think my original idea about the other point only works if he meant "scum changed votes" as in he thinks the generalized movement onto Umami was driven by scum, which is a bit more of a stretch. Because I think that presents such a large pool that he could have picked and chosen non-partners.

If he meant "scum changed votes" as in shading just me and Waco only, I guess it makes sense for you to townread him off that given you think I'm suspicious, but obviously I don't find that super compelling. Maybe that makes him less likely w/w with Waco, which is interesting because if I go off POE, both Seratin and Waco ddon't quite make it to the top.

Can you talk to me why you townread Cuth, is it just the "finding each other" moment? I feel like I should be giving Cuth w more consideration out of respect for Osie's read lol, but I didn't understand his case at all from the little I read, and I still don't really.

 

Osie is someone I haven't played with in a while despite still spending a ton of mafia time with (played in several of his games, had him help me with some of my designs) so I don't actually know how much I should trust his reads. That said giving his Cuth scum read another look is at least in order. Anyway as for my actual read on Cuth I've been vaguely town reading him for a long time but the finding each other was a big shot in the arm for the read.

And the retraction back to Miner was only after half the game yelled at him for being for lack of the right word, dramatic. It's not clearing but I think it's definitely a solid look.

 

@Fluffiness, do you still believe this / do you have any further thoughts on Sloth? Now we know that tom is town, but I don't know if that's really relevant to your original read.

Fluff's ISO is pretty bare, so this is still basically what I think of him. The conclusion that he's town is a bit of a sheep - Tom wolfed with him recently and liked him based on the background thinking in this post I quote, and was echoed by Cuth, so the read is buoyed up by that.

 

Sorry I disappeared yesterDay. My husband can be a big drama queen sometimes. Things kind of exploded.
But all is fine again now

just woke up, gonna do my caffeine/nicotine and then dig in.

 

Hello Rhand! Glad to hear all is fine now. I'm particularly interested in hearing more about your towncore from yesterday, and your thoughts on EOD, once you catch up.

Spoiler

@Umami Hi! I don't know if you're still reading this, but I finished Ted Chiang's Exhalation and would definitely recommend it. In terms of lighthearted fantasy series, I can't think of any recs except maybe Discworld? Haha. I recently had a good time with this quite short piece.

For some reason I'd been extremely convinced that fire had made exactly four posts in this thread. (He made six.)

I still don't have really strong feelings about most of it.

We know now that all of the people mentioned in this post were town, haha... I guess maybe possibly it's indicative of using TMI that his correct reads on fonti and tom were longer than his incorrect read on Gemma? Or that he mentions Umami interpreting Tom's posts differently from him (as well as fonti's posts about the gun, implicitly), but then he doesn't have a read on her? I don't know.

I never noticed before, but his tom read actually matches somewhat with his stated reasoning for townreading tom in one of his earlier posts, so that's consistent.

If he's town, he was a bit detached from the thread for whatever reason, developed these reads independently, probably in the order that they were listed given what he cites as the reasons, and just sheeped a wrong scumread onto Miner. If he's mafia, he wanted to blend in by posting consensus reads and just continuing to push the designated mislynch, who ended up being not mislynched.

The wagon at the time that he made this post was [tom, fonti, Seratin, Keldeo, fire], and the people who voted after were [Osie, Waco, Cuth]. I'm not sure what he meant precisely by jumping on halfway but maybe this is a good look for Waco/Rhand and Cuth/Rhand not w/w? Not really sure if they'd pay attention to avoid not being pushed by their partner like that.

He also says in this post that grape is "more" clear because of his scumread on Miner and Miner's critical posting toward Grape. He hadn't expressed a read on grape in writing. Indicative of background thinking?

Also asks GH for his reasoning about voting Miner when GH had already posted that reasoning. Meh.

Even though I never really got a detailed answer about why, I think Osie's strong townread on Rhand swings me a little bit to the town side before I start looking at his posts.
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Oh, Rhand, can I ask why you read d1 without looking at the flips first? Is it just a personal preference?
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Now that we know that tom is town, does your read on this situation change? (I'm assuming that you already were thinking that Miner was town, given your later post about Sloth.)
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Yeah, hmm, there isn't a lot to look at on Rhand yet. I think his Sloth case reads fine - like, I can believe that he came to the conclusion of suspicion from reading Sloth's posts, probably as either alignment. I am interested in his response to Sloth's response in addition to what he posts now, I guess.

It's actually probably more useful to look at people's reactions to fire early on. I'd almost forgotten - Sloth, Ter/Osie, and Gemma were the three people who reacted to fire's first post and kicked off that early-game thing. That isn't super useful, because I think Rhand's case on Sloth already solidifies that Rhand/Sloth aren't w/w.

 

Yeh miner has always been in my town block because of Gemma.

The reason I start reading without flips is that I can detect town better without knowing them.
I use mindmeld as a tool, and if you have knowledge about alignments, mindmeld doesn’t work.

I’ll get to Sloth later when I’m on my laptop.
Now I’m going to have a look at tom and miner. Tom was a possible mislynch, so mafia must have been afraid of his reads somehow. And miner has to be wrong in his to receive the gun.
I’m going to check if that aligns with my worldview.
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tom’s latest reads:

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And miner’s:

 

Okay, thanks. I actually thought Tom was townread by a lot of people - do you think townies would have become paranoid of him / mafia would have flipped their read of him in order to push him as a mislynch? Or maybe my impression was just wrong.

I'm getting too tired to keep ISOing. I'll be back tomorrow evening.

Quick question to everyone: when do people think Miner should shoot the gun? 24 hours left, 48 hours left? I lean toward the first one but probably not much later than that, because no matter who he shoots, we'll need time to either figure out a second shot if the first shot is mafia, or reevaluate reads / consolidate wagons if the first shot is town.

 

I love this automerge thing.

This actually confirms my Sloth read more.
tom also mentioned he did not want to lynch Grape.

So this would mean, if mafia thinks the way I think they do, that Sloth is mafia and at least two out of Keldeo, Grape, Seratim town, likely even all 3.

That towncore I was talking about was Gemma(miner) / Grape / Waco / Seratim / Osi.
I will look into eod next because I’m upset y’all lynched Osi.
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I don’t think there’s a point in timing that shot? Just when he’s ready.

Was tom that widely townread? I for sure wasn’t townreading him.

 

Can you elaborate about your reasoning for those people being town? I haven't ISOed any of those people yet, but I don't share most of those reads very strongly.

I went back to check who was townreading tom. Me although I don't remember how open I was about it yesterDay, Cuth, MP7, Grape, Seratin/Cobalt at least on day 1, Waco at least on day 1. Sloth maybe? That's a majority, and I feel like he might have been more townread than anyone else, as well. So I don't think mafia were necessarily afraid of tom's reads.
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Or they might have been partially scared of his reads, and partially didn't feel like he was mislynchable? Based on my view of the game state, I feel like the latter must have been a part of it. But I don't really know.

That thought from Rhand feels good, maybe. I might talk about this when I'm more awake if I'm still feeling it.

 

I don’t think there’s a point in timing that shot? Just when he’s ready.

why were you looking for pre-flip connections anyways?

Vote Sloth
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Gemma wrote things while she was thinking them. She evolved naturally and wrote it all out. And she voiced my thoughts about fonti.
Grape seemed to really believe in his early tom read and scum!Grape would not risk tom’s pushback.
Waco’s reaction to Grape felt natural.
Looking back at the post where I marked Seratin as town, I’m not so sure anymore because of tom’s town flip.
Osi was pure as hell. And the meta read he gave on me would not be a smart thing to do if he was mafia.

 

Grape said he was exaggerating/forcing his early read on Tom, but I think that reinforces your read. Is that read on his personality, not wanting to risk the backlash, based in experience with Grape?
- You also seem to be assuming Tom is town in a scum Grape world because Grape would only be genuinely worried about tom’s backlash that way. Did you consider them being w/w? (I didn’t - maybe you didn’t for similar reasons?)

You mean Waco’s early reaction to Grape, right? That seems similar to why Grape was liking him.

What post made you mark Seratin as town, and why does tom being town make you doubt it?

 

No I didn’t think it was w/w theatre from Grape.
Tom is considered one of the strongest players on mtgs. And Grape (no offense) sees himself as mediocre. I would be extremely surprised if scum!Grape would gun for tom off the bat.
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Seratin is 286. I mainly liked the Umami read there, but looking back at it now, Seratin lands on Gemma / tom at the end of that post. Which at the time I thought was 1 out of 2, but now we know they’re both town.
So yeh, not solid towncore anymore.
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Something bugs me. Why haven’t you asked me why you are not in my towncore Keldeo?