tom>Slip>>>>Typhon

 

If newcomb is scum with anyone it's slip. And it's extreme paranoia because of the fucked situation. There's too much opposing information and I can't make heads or tails of it.

---------- Post automerged at 09:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:31 PM ----------

Tom was pushing owner. What do you think he saw?

 

Dammit I thought I had you pocketed.

---------- Post automerged at 17:52 ---------- Previous post was at 17:50 ----------

Oh, also.
Newcomb.

Why slippery over typh? Aren't you getting info on koalas that could potentially clear him?

---------- Post automerged at 17:55 ---------- Previous post was at 17:52 ----------

Well I would kill typh. Just so you guys know what's going on.

---------- Post automerged at 18:00 ---------- Previous post was at 17:55 ----------

Koalas lynch/typh shot and we might be done by the time tomorrow comes around.

Koalas lynch/slippery shot and we have one scum left every time.

 

Pretty sure that's Day.

 

Filler?
I hardly even know her.

 

Well good morning.

Newcomb, anything you'd like to share?

---------- Post automerged at 00:50 ---------- Previous post was at 00:49 ----------

Oh, or do we just lynch typh now?

---------- Post automerged at 00:50 ---------- Previous post was at 00:50 ----------

@thug
Why slippery?

---------- Post automerged at 02:29 ---------- Previous post was at 00:50 ----------

I looked at the ruleset and I'm basically seeing no townie reason to activate pagan.
Perhaps I missed something, but I think that means typh is scum and since he didn't have two kills koalas was town.

vira/slippery/typh?

 

Next time I propose a Day 1 font witch, you all had better follow through.

---------- Post automerged at 08:13 ---------- Previous post was at 08:13 ----------

oops

*lynch, not witch

---------- Post automerged at 08:14 ---------- Previous post was at 08:13 ----------

Hypothesis: Witches had Spiritualist and trashed it because they had Gravedigger.

 

Most likely not mr von.

We know between tom, waco, you & me are
DoB, Fanatic, Gambler, Spiritualist & Survivalist. (one of them was discarded)

Waco cannot be Dob or Survivalist, because duh!
Same applies to Fanatic because owner checked him n1 (extra life applies before the lynch)
Chances are high that he would have picked odd as gambler (because almost everyone does).
Leaving only the Spiritualist.


Furthermore :
Survivalist & DoB almost never get discarded by scum. (too much value in those roles)
Soo .. the discard is most likely one between fanatic & gambler.


We also know that there is always exactly 1 scum between Vira and Koalas unless scum decided to not use their two kills last night.
(There has to be one between them or judge dead with 6 people left would result in a witch victory.)

And the only way 2 witches are dead would be if slippery is a witch.
Outside chance, but not important right now.


Next fun thing I want to point out just so scum realize how fucked they are (if Newcomb is town).
Both von and myself are either a survival role or the DoB.
Newcomb already has 2 lives.

Have fun nightkilling people. This is nothing but russian roulette for you guys.

I mean sure they could shoot mal .. the only known role with less than 2 lives ... but i for one am glad if mal dies in the night.

Unsure if we should kill Typhon today .. he is the outted scum .. and if he is the last one then it is alright.
But why not remove one of Newcombs lives just to be save?

DoB if town stays on Typhon.
If they kill the DoB then we go into the next day with another dead witch.

If they kill Mal or Newcomb then I don't have to be paranoid about fucking up the game.

If there are 2 kp in the night, then we know slippery was scum and Typhon is just the last.
Which also confirms mal in most worlds, because he is unlikely to shoot his partner there.

1 kp slippery was town and we have 2 witches left.

Downside is 2 witches in 5 people is a hard game.

Von is confirmed.
I am widely townread (and even I don't see me getting this far as wolf, and i still believe I don't suck that hard as one).

Lynching a wolf tomorrow (in the 2 witches left world) would mean
4 people going in the night, witches have 2 kp.
If the witch manages to kill 2 town then they win.
But with at least 2 survival roles left in the game AND angels. (between 1-2 survival roles are left on town right now)
that is a hard thing to pull of for them.

---------- Post automerged at 16:13 ---------- Previous post was at 16:13 ----------

A lot of rambling and maybe .. just maybe that idea is very bad.

Just sanity check me. (anyone but Newcomb because Newcomb can't agree with that play).

 

Oh right, Waco is a player who existed.

Guide me to victory, Jan.

 

This is a first.

 

Snowvon > extra life or DOB
Jan > extra life or DOB
mal > Hunter
Newcomb > GD!Apprentice with extra life
tom > extra life or DOB
Typhon > Pagan, also a Witch

Hm.

Lynch Typhon, Angels protect mal, and let the last Witch suffer.

Or if not Typhon, we could always try lynching tom.

---------- Post automerged at 10:39 ---------- Previous post was at 10:38 ----------

Who else is going to guide me? mal and Newcomb are both slacking.

---------- Post automerged at 11:13 ---------- Previous post was at 10:39 ----------

Actually yeah, we should probably lynch tom here.

If he's Survivalist, Last Stand doesn't activate. Not the end of the world if it does tho.

If he's DOB, decent chance his target survives. Unless he hits mal, which is whatever.

 

Hi guys. I'm super sorry about D3 - I had a pretty serious family health issue that required my attention. There wasn't anything that could be done about that, really, but here we are with essentially half a day's worth of posting from me on D4. That's a problem, obviously.

And uhh... as far as the pagan activation goes, I might have been out-wifomed by scum, but like activating pagan is the proper play here, so like yeah.

Unfortunate that it turned out like it did, but unless the demon had already haunted a protected owner, which is exceedingly unlikely unless one of them correctly sussed her role out properly because she was mislynch bait till the reveal, there was no reason to not haunter her last night - if they didn't haunt and I waited till N4 to pagan like I very nearly did, then owner would have been protected till D5 or D6, depending. It's a coup for them, but it shouldn't have fucking worked.

There are reasons (lurky as fuck replacement) to lynch me, but making mechanically sound plays is not one.

---------- Post automerged at 10:20 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:15 AM ----------

Hmm. Tempted to full case everyone from my perspective. That's an assload of reading, but there are only 5 people left, and a shitpile of effort is probably appropriate to balance the absence. Is that a thing anybody cares to see?

Starting place wall:
Snow
Mal
Newcomb
Jan/Tom

 

I care!

/ten

 

Typhon -

Owner never dies last night if you do nothing.
Never.

She always gets 1 more check.
1 more check is almost always solving the game.

If you did this as town, then we most likely cannot win.

I would prefer to let you live for now and let the dob target you.

The question is lynch tom?
lynch 1 live of newcomb to see what happens next?


I don't think Mal is scum. self target n1 when there are so many potential priests left (or highly townread people).

The question is can we always lynch Newcomb, Thy and Tom?

That might be a hard task depending on the prs left. Doing some work in my brain for a while.

Feel free to talk about thing and thoughts and all that.

 

You mean, there is always at least 1 scum between vira/Koalas/slip. Still possible there were no scum between Vira/Koalas.

You're also ignoring the world where Waco was the Gravedigger. In that world, Vira can be any of gambler/fanatic/spiritualist. They wouldn't know which, but if Spiritualist was their discard, Newcomb would still be pretty confident in pulling off this gambit.

Also, Jan, you're ignoring that Pagan activating would have given owner a clean check. While pagan not activating would have meant that her check was going to be suspect, regardless of the result.

Pagan activating wasn't a 100% scum move, from town it was a yomi game between the pagan and the witches. If the pagan didn't activate, angels would protect the Priest 100%. If pagan did activate, the priest would never be protected (because haunt swapping the priest is completely pointless). Additionally, a pagan activation this last night would keep there from being any town players that can't be protected again going into endgame.

So the question here is what you think is more likely. Scum!Typhon revealed his role to guarentee a kill on the priest that was never getting a clean check. Or town!Typhon got outyomi'd by the witches.

---------- Post automerged at 13:10 ---------- Previous post was at 13:05 ----------

Oh, I shot slip because the lack of spiritualist activation has made me kind of believe in:

scum!nurse!Slip
scum!apprentice!Newcomb
scum!Survivalist/gambler/DOB/fanatic!tom

with town!gambler/fanatic!vira and town!gravedigger!Waco

---------- Post automerged at 13:21 ---------- Previous post was at 13:10 ----------

Also, because of the roles left, the scumteam has a serious problem with Typhon, regardless of his alignment. Because he's now one of only 2 known roles without protection (me and him). And I'm an obvious protect target (again).

So the scum team doesn't want to shoot him (either because he's scum, or he's possible mislynch bait) but because he's known to not be gambler/fanatic/suvivalist/DOB, they really have to shoot him eventually if he's town.

 

I do like the idea of shooting typh.
But lynching me seems iffy at best.

 

Ahh, excellent, people aren't (necessarily) just going to scream spew at me and ignore/lynch me if I try to discuss the game. I'll be doing the analysis as soon as I get home then of the 4 relevant players (everybody besides me and snow).

Thanks to Mal for considering Pagan stuff and not just assuming it was a scum move.

For the record this was my full reasoning - assuming Vira!scum, which I was until the flip today (now I think it's time to reassess the game fully), scum would be targeting one of themselves and one member of town with haunt in hopes of making that town member unable to be protected. Owner is probably never haunted, because she's a mislynch and not a night kill. Thus, scum needed to haunt her last night and one of themselves - her to make her unable to be protected tomorrow, because surely angels would protect her till she goes down, and then one of themselves to try and get a green check on one of them. To not do this is running the risk of owner surviving 3 more night (to endgame) - that's the game for them. So if I popped Pagan, the thought was that she'd be protected, maybe they'd waste a kill, and owner would have at least one more check, guaranteed to be accurate.

Obviously they outplayed me, which not only makes me look like someone who should have the hell killed out of them, but allowed them to kill the priest with no wasted kill. It is unfortunate, to say the least.

 

Ok, clearly you have some way of explaining why you did that and what you thought was gonna happen, and I don't actually understand your role.
But the cop died.
Why is what you're saying more likely than you as scum killed the cop and used your role to make it work?