Hmmm. If I was searching for a peek, I would guess between von-town, me-scum, or slippery-scum.
But you didn't mention any of us in your first couple of posts.

I still say you were a weird kill choice.

---------- Post automerged at 19:01 ---------- Previous post was at 18:46 ----------

Even weirder protection choice tbh.
Why would tds/miner/waco protect anyone but newcomb?

But tds probably wasn't there and miner would just sheep waco I expect.
I assume waco understands the setup/site culture better than me, but I don't really know since he ate night 1 NKs both times I've seen him.

 

Newcomb had 2 lives on n2.

No way any angel saves him there.

---------- Post automerged at 04:06 ---------- Previous post was at 04:04 ----------

No way anyone would believe mal in a von check.

N1 is a precious check, and von is rarely that hard of a read.

Redcheck on you or slip.

Maybe green on me with the initial weird scumread which he changed into his 2nd strongest townread.


Rereading it :

This would be the post of yours i personally would kind of interpret as a redcheck.
Half cryptic .. no real good reason .. just the follow up to your readwall (and von asking you about it).

 

Oh I thought that happened day 3. Nevermind.

This is why I don't do setup stuff.
That and I've opened the online ruleset thread like a dozen times this game to check things and I just don't retain it.

 

Remembering the roles gets easier once you played 50 games of witchhunt.

 

Well, if the coven was trying to kill thug for thinking he was the priest, it's slippery I guess.

I know people who aren't me usually do the priesthunt thing rather than my usual strategy of eliminating stronger personalities than me. So that's a pretty solid indicator.

---------- Post automerged at 19:15 ---------- Previous post was at 19:12 ----------

Nah. I'll never care that much.

I played in a game on westeros with the roles tied to the alternate accounts we got assigned (so the only hidden info was real identities and alignment) and still never learned the setup or who was who.

I need to find more vanilla games.

 

Well, if tom's mafia, I could see that team thinking you had the red on him, given your waffling over a meta case while wanting him dead but never having a super strong case.

Possibly a green on Jan, given the way you initially had a meta case where you talked about WH14 and then dropped it completely.

Probably not the green, though, on anyone, since Demon N1 means Priest!you probably doesn't give suuuper credence to a green, at least enough to have it drastically change your reads, and that would probably be a thing dead players would take into account if they're looking for a check.

---------- Post automerged at 07:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:23 PM ----------

^ yeah, that.

I dunno about the Slip redcheck. If I'm looking for someone softing a check, I'm kinda looking for something a little less blatant than that. I'm looking for negative space stuff, like dropping something without a real reason. Possible, though.

 

And ..

Would the two (or 3) of you midn talking about this.

Or rather Newcomb and Tom talk about the Typhon formerly known as Fonti and what they were thinking back then?!

Just looking through old Newcomb stuff to see if I can make myself scumread him.

---------- Post automerged at 04:30 ---------- Previous post was at 04:29 ----------

Well you respect other people and their play.

 

Well, I guess I can talk about it. I mean, maybe it's right and I could still use it but fuck it.

I was looking for fonti to be manipulative. It's sort of an adapted version of how I read sir chris, only he is always manipulative you just have to look at what he's manipulating you in to.
Fonti just said her piece and didn't really push it. Kind of forthrightly "I'm fonti and I'm amazing" without actually saying it.
I thought it looked good.

 

So if I'm approaching this game in a world where I trust nothing and need to reset, I have to consider what I think I know. Obviously that means that everything is suspect (the one exception is TDS - that guy was just town), but more specifically it means that I have to come to a firm feeling on information giving roles (ie the game-state revolves around whether Newcomb and Owner are who they said they were).

Newcomb first, because he's more important - either he's lying or he's telling the truth about everything and there's no possibility of a misdirected check throwing anything off.

So let's think about it, pbp style instead of this waffly bullshit that has composed my Newcomb stance.

This first actual thing he says is on p4 (317). Bullet points:
-I agree with everything he said about Vira (basically that she's scummy scum). She /was/ flat, waffly, and posted mostly fluff.
-He says like 8 things about Jan to say he has no opinion on Jan. He also does this (though less strikingly) with tom and fonti.
--The subpoint to that is that despite not offering an opinion on those people, he does a fair bit of grouping of them. Vira/Jan not w/w, Jan/Kalas not w/w, fonti/Snow not w/w, tom/miner not w/w, tom/kai not w/w.
-Owner top town is pretty reachy for me at literally any point in the game prior to the claim.
-Waco punt is fine with me.
-Miner read mirrors my own.
-Kalas/Slip reads were fine.

Next real post is the claim:
-Vira scum confirmed, TDS town confirmed.

Next real post is Vira spew analysis:
-It's kinda difficult for me to judge this post. He draws conclusions I disagree with in the miner scum thing coming out of Vira spew and I think that skews everything, but I think I also kinda see it from town!Newcomb's perspective even if I disagreed with it.

After that we get into a series of Newcomb posts where he and Jan lightly jostle each other but don't ever actually pressure each other at all. And it kinda continues to be a thing for a while...

Okay, so I've been at this for a while and have already lost a post, so I'm just going to say this: I think there are two worlds, with the more likely one being Jan/Newcomb/(slip, probably?) and the other being some combo of Vira/tom/(slip/owner).

That's it, that's what I've got. I've read over a thousand posts, I've iso'd Newcomb, I've tried to figure this game out, and it just doesn't make sense to me. Tom is probably the person least likely to be town objectively, but given how he'd fit together with a team I think Newcomb/Jan are more likely to be scum.

---------- Post automerged at 10:48 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:46 PM ----------

I suppose there could be a snow/tom/owner world or something insane, but fucking kudos to them if we live in that world.

 

Jesus yeah. We would deserve all the fucking kudos.
Vaimes as scum would be the stuff of legends.

---------- Post automerged at 21:13 ---------- Previous post was at 21:12 ----------

Did you really reread and land upon newcomb/jan as the scumteam?
Like, this isn't mimefia. You know that right?

---------- Post automerged at 21:20 ---------- Previous post was at 21:13 ----------

Also, you just need to know this.

If I am scum, I can be scum with anyone.
That's the beauty of me/the way I play as scum.
And why you/me seems to be what the thread in general is thinking.

You don't know me. I insist you read a scumgame of mine before you commit to this jan/newcomb world.
How much time you want to spend? I can give you anything from a turbo to an MTGS game that was one day short of 6 months.

 

I'm 1000% of the opinion that reading old games is less useful than rereading the current game, but if other people think meta is imperative to understanding you as potential scum, then link me something short. I'm exceedingly pressed for time on the whole.

---------- Post automerged 10-13-2016 at 12:03 AM ---------- Previous post was 10-12-2016 at 11:56 PM ----------

AS far as me landing on them, think about it for a minute. It's not me. It's not Snow. It's almost certainly not mal. You don't fit in other teams for me. I do believe in Newcomb/Slip worlds, but not in Vira/Newcomb/Slip. Miner was town, TDS was town, Waco was town, I don't really believe in Kalas/Newcomb/Slip, I don't think the game would have played out this way if Owner/Newcomb/Slip was the team. That leaves Jan, behaviorally it holds as well as or better than any of these ridiculous worlds.

Between Newcomb/Slip/Kalas, Newcomb/Slip/Vira, and Newcomb/Slip/Jan, I see the last as the most likely.

If Newcomb isn't scum then it's you.

 

Yeah sure, like I said, it doesn't super matter anymore because it was a long-form thing.

Basically, when tom talked about specifically having a way to approach fonti, it reminded me of myself in MM6 (the one Jan/fonti/Rubicon won as mafia.)

Relevant quotes:

On a basic level, fonti's just a player you have to have an opinion on. She's not boring. She really makes you think about her. And especially coming off a game where tom would have to had taken notice of her - the last TH where she nailed him to the wall - it made a ton of sense to me that tom regardless of alignment would have a Secret Plan to Read Fonti (tm)... because that's a thought I can 100% identify with.

If fonti had stayed in, I would have paid super, super close attention to the interactions between them. I didn't have the chance to firm up any real ideas about what I was looking for specifically before fonti replaced out, but my thought process was kinda like -

"tom, if he's mafia, will probably try to pocket fonti if she's town. It will appeal to his ego and he'll want revenge for TinyHunt. He'll probably shoot her like D2 or D3, sure, but before that he'll use this meta-paranoia-plan thing to make her overlook him, because it's a reasonable thing that town!tom might have thought even before the game started - like, "how am I going to handle fonti?"

On the other hand, if tom's town here, regardless of fonti's alignment, I'll be able to see a thought process that at least somewhat mirrors my mindset in MM6, where like it or not, fonti becomes kind of a central read, an anchor point, for how he's thinking about the game."

Since she replaced out, it's all pretty much for naught. But based on how he talked about her on D1, it jives pretty well with how I think he talked about me - basically, he "got there" on the townread too early, and too easy.

 

Did I miss the reasoning for this?

 

I don't think I explicitly stated it.

There's one scum between Vira and Newcomb.
If Slippery is scum, Newcomb is (probably?).

I just don't really believe in Newcomb/Slip/Tom because of interactions between them, although admittedly I have yet to reread for that explicitly.

If Slip was town, I guess we could have... hmm. Idek. Newcomb/tom/Kalas? That doesn't really make sense to me either, same reasoning.

That leaves my other option as Vira/tom/(slip/owner).

Which brings us back to start, really. I have less reason to townread Tom than anyone else in the game, because I've been hard town reading him on tone all game, but like how likely are those teams?

 

This is super accurate both ways actually. I wish I'd been able to show you that progression.
I was at, like, ok if fonti is scum she is 100% ok with how everything is going because she's not trying to change it.
A reread with more information to work with could have really added a great deal of oomph to my hypothesis.

Oh do I have to reread fonti now?
Shit.

 

ptap

long day, very sleepy, mafia tomorrow

I want to lynch almost all of you.

 

Bad assumption. Fonti has not been really into mafia for a few months.

This is dlp, she signed up for the game because she feels somewhat obliged to do so.

She left the game the day I left allstars (and she left allstars basically right after me, because she just isn't into mafia at the moment).

I get where your assumption is coming from, but what happened is not allignment indicative. (you should not read fonti like that anyway, you have to read her mood first before you have any idea about her alignment)

---------- Post automerged at 15:24 ---------- Previous post was at 15:14 ----------
Typhon :
Explain to me how/why you would think I am more likely with slippery than Tom is with Newcomb.

Slippery and I had a shitton of interactions .. you have to believe we faked every single last of them with no gain at all.

I see why you would say Newcomb and I could be aligned. Funny enough .. I think if we were aligned chances of us going hard against each other for a while would be way higher.
Just create a good show for the rest to read us unaligned for.

This game it was more a dance where we let each other breathe while still poking each other from a save distance.
I can promise you that Newcomb and I would have won the game already.

You do realize that if tom is alone then slippery was always a hit .. and in the Newcomb/slippery/me world he also always was a hit.

Which means from your perspective spew reading slippery and drawing anti alignments from him is always the way to go (I don't agree with your worlds at all, but that is beside the point).

I need to go to me 2nd doctors appointment for the day .. might get more into all this mess when i get back.

 

I mean, you guys do have a ton of interactions. It's not a perfect theory, or I wouldn't be so damn confused about things.

But like... is it really for nothing if you guys are a team? There's a ~50% chance you have a second life at least every other day, Newcomb has a second life, it was done in such a way as to give Newcomb a life without it being incredibly obviously scummy (although I still kinda think it was but ymmv). You and Slip have a lot of words, but idk. I can't help but wonder if you wouldn't have "convinced" Newcomb and then by extension the thread to not lynch Slip if Mal hadn't shot him, if we are living in that world. That's 3 scum alive going into D4 and maybe even N4, it's pretty hard to call that "nothing".

The same could be true of tom I guess but like... assuming a uniform level of competence, it seems reasonable to consider who is setting themselves up for the best position to win? Because his play assuming tom/Newcomb/slip doesn't really make sense. That's the difference between Newcomb/Jan/Slip and Newcomb/tom/Slip. That's why realistically I think if tom is scum he's the last one on a tom/Vira/(probably slip/owner) team; he's be playing somewhat floatily like this because maintaining his town read status is more important than shaping anything because him staying alive is all that matters. No way was tom saving slip by himself, so his best bet was to bus and hope.

If there are two left, and 3 as of yesterday, then scum is more likely to go for the throat. I can see that more from you and Newcomb than tom and Newcomb.

---------- Post automerged at 09:57 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:55 AM ----------

Also, hope you feel better man. Trust me, you have my sympathies with regards to being sick/injured.

 

Why is it not tom and myself?

Vira/Tom/Myself .. should be a viable world to you?!


I mean the first question is .. do you think I would force +life on Newcomb if I am scum and he is town?!

I can just wait for d3 and maybe even push it on anyone else. (maybe even myself)
If I am town then it says nothing about his alignment, because i could have just fucked up, but if i am scum then forcing the +life on him is strictly against my win con, because I already lost one of my partners d1. (which means I cant win fast enough and giving a town + life just fucks me in the longrun). You could argue that i wanted towncred with a hail marry play .. but it just doesn't work ..


Now if Newcomb is town, then it is always :
Vira / slippery / x with one scum left alive
or
Vira / x / x with 2 scum left alive,

Town!Newcomb has an easy time because he just kills tom/typhon and wins.

Scum!Newcomb will play exactly the same card because he is with one of those two and wins with the misslynch (or likely wins after the first lynch as last mafia with 2 lifes).

I spend a little while crunching numbers and I see worlds where we can remove Newcombs life today and then lynch correctly afterwards.

Not the easiest of worlds, but it is doable.

 

Err. I'm not sure what you're trying to say in that post.

Like, I don't think anybody is considering a Vira/Jan/Tom world as viable. And I have no idea what you're trying to say at the bottom with scum!Newcomb and town!Newcomb stuff.

Mind restating that more clearly for me?

---------- Post automerged at 11:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:48 AM ----------

If the thrust of it is if Newcomb is town we win by killing Tom I think I agree with that - if Newcomb is town I think we're in a 1 scum world, which has to be Tom?

---------- Post automerged at 12:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:53 AM ----------
mallorean_thug you're a person who is probably trustworthy and thinks about things and stuff, worldbuild with me or comment on my worlds or something.

Like you and Snow are people who we all (I think) trust, come be useful pls