I think we should at least give proph + dermon a chance to post.
If the gravedigger doesn't claim, then he doesn't. We assume he is dead or scum, I guess.
Who do you want to lynch? Do you have anything to say about fontisians case on you, now that she actually made the case on you?

Why do you not get why Sesc wasn't protected last night? You thought that Zeit was town and Oracle yesterday, so you must have read his post and believed him.

 

Ok, the gravedigger plan sounds good, but I see one glaring problem. What if the gravedigger role got assigned to a witch? How would we be able to tell?

 

Dermon: By examining their motivations and seeing if their story matches up. Worst case (and most likely) scenario right now is that we're at 6-3, and one mislynch from lylo (discounting whatever role abilities). We have a bit of room for error.

 

I want to lynch Font and Dermon. Neither have been acting any townier in the past few days, in fact, they’ve been acting even worse (Font time-stalling with her extension). I’ll case-by-case defend myself from Font’s accusations a little later.

Yes, but protecting Zeit over Sesc? I know Zeit's the Oracle, but Zeit can easily be lynched while Sesc is at the top of the town list. See Font's immediate vote for Zeit as soon as the day started.

 

Vira: Is you only point against me that I wanted more time yesterDay?

Demons are a thing. If ArchAngel was used Night 2, as Zeit claims, then there was nothing stopping Rubicon from cursing Sesc, so that the Angels couldn't protect him. I'm sure you know this.

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Wait, turns out Vira wasn't in the other Witchhunt games. My bad. I still think she's faking a lack of knowledge about cursing.

 

The GD isn't claiming for w/e reason. The day is wasting, and waiting for someone who might be dead/scum seems pointless. Unless Proph says otherwise, lets operate under the assumption that the GD is dead/scum.

Chocolate, if you wanna wait for Proph to see if he claims thats fine, but I want you to answer my earlier question if he doesn't.

Zeit, what do you make of all this? Because Sesc died and you have pretty much vanished, it's making me suspicious :/

 

@font+Vira:

 

@Vira, atm Fonti is being more active, although her vote on Zeit was a bit overzealous. I'd be cool with lynching Dermon, but I want to hear Chocoate's reads/wait to see if Proph claims before that.

 

ugh, where is the rest of my post?

 

I still want to lynch Zeit. Especially now after Sesc was killed, it's obvious that revealing the Archangel card's use did no favors for the town, and he pushed his reveal into giving himself more towncred. I'm feeling better about Luckylee, though, because I don't think that scum would blatantly buddy and defend one another like those two have been.

 

Ugh, just ignore me about the angel/demon stuff, I know nothing. -.-

 

This is fair and actually the correct response to my post.

I went into this day with 4 beliefs:
1) Bill Door was probably a Witch. (>75% odds)
2) Dermon is probably a Witch, particularly in Bill Door Witch worlds.
3) Luckylee is probably a Witch, particularly in Bill Door Witch worlds, and particularly in Dermon Witch worlds. (lower odds overall)
4) A living Witch Gravedigger is unlikely to claim unless aligned with a Witch Assassin.

The responses of both of these players has fit this model.

Zeit is a giant flytrap, the towniest town who ever towned. I'm having trouble reconciling his behavior at any point in the game with a scum mindset, in particular his botched claim.

My other strong town reads I will not be sharing, at least not now. This should give me plenty of position to defend, and make this player seat a factor in this game.

I will be glad to make a drawn out case on both players in short order. But today we're killing:

lynch Dermon

The single biggest reason is that his reaction to the Kalas/Rubicon event is indefensible. Also:

I woke up, saw this, and couldn't stop smiling. It's like a late Christmas.

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Also, why are we not talking about this post? (Sometimes being forced to re-read the topic multiple times as a replacement has its advantages!)

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Key points:

1) I believe this is what happened. There was zero reason to use Archangel night 2 otherwise.
2) I think there is a zero percent chance of Zeit attempting to manipulate this fact as a Witch. He didn't even mention it! From no angle could it have been a trap, given hindsight of how it played out and how everyone involved behaved.

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I'll save you the trip to page 3; if true, this clears me and Moridin.

 

CPi: If you want me to look at anywhere other than Zeit toDay, you're going to have to give me an idea of why you think he's town. I'm also looking forward to your cases against Dermon and Luckylee.

I don't quite understand what you're saying for the ArchAngel thing. If Aek knew there were three scum on his bandwagon, wouldn't he have used the ArchAngel on Night 1? If it was indeed used on Night 2, it was probably used to protect Sesc, because Kalas was dead and Sesc was townfirmed.

 

Aek would not know who the Witches are until the end of night 1. This signal would be inherently restricted to night 2.

It should have been used on Sesc, yes. But it still otherwise makes no sense to use Night 2.

Can you construct a single world in which Witch Zeit would have come forward with this botched claim, as he did? What does he have to gain at all? This isn't wine we're looking at; not just a "Oh well I totally wouldn't be that dumb as a Witch haha!" This is outright not a Witch mentality.

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I want everyone here to read this over and over until they are happy with it. If you want, I can do a breakdown, but in the meantime Dermon's posts are calling.

 

Lynch Vote: Dermon.

Something I can agree with.

 

It's funny how thats pretty much exactly what I said regarding Zeit. Still waiting to see if Proph claims before I start throwing votes around.

 

alright, yes, i want that breakdown

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Also:

stop this, please.

 

Alright, maybe I'm missing something. Why wouldn't he have known on Night 1?

Yes. He roleclaimed because that's what the card said to do. That's not a town mentality, that's a scum-trying-to-appear-town mentality.

No. (It's used to differentiate between a physical day and an in-game day.)

 

All of this has to be looked at through the lens of how Zeit has posted this entire game.

Appears ernest, a tad-long-winded, not the strongest mechanical player but gives things a lot of thought, a little indecisive.

This is already a little unusual. Scum comes forward with an agenda, even if the one they show is usually fake. You came forward because your QT told you so? This reads as indecisive town looking to justify their current action and convince everyone, most of all himself, that he is doing the right thing.

There's no circus, no dramatic waffling, no show and dance asking for opinions.

Bold is my emphasis. All of these lean town--there a sense of comfortably latching onto a position of some authority after being alone on an island for the entire game, with hint of self-satisfaction at a job well done. (Surviving, getting his information.)

Witches don't see merit in confirming what town already knows. They have trouble even perceiving that this could have merit. But for town, there is a ton of psychological satisfaction in seeing the facts line up.

This is perhaps the biggest single line, in terms of arguing for town Zeit.

1) He is hyper-conscious of what the angels think of him, and he cares. Witches don't care about how the angels feel towards them, although they are hyper-conscious of them for different reasons.

2) His incomplete argument doesn't make sense and has no external implications, which means it doesn't fit any agenda.

First, this is incorrect; dead players see stuff at the end of night, and Rubicon would not know who the Priest is. This is all the *more* reason for him to Archdemon--he had no true confirmation that Kalas was 100% the Priest. (He might have though Kalas was Acolyte to Sesc's Priest, for example.)

And of course, why not? No reason for Rubicon not to.

But given Zeit's misunderstanding, can't you see that what followed was a strictly town train of thought?

This isn't a Witch trying to be helpful, this is a town wanting to be helpful.

Town claim is sudden hyper-sensitive to Witch Assassin--not hard to fake, but another box checked.

Again, we see a lot of justification that seems more intent on convincing himself than us!

This only seals the deal. A celebratory gif? Zeit really thinks he just delivered a blow to the Witch team with his actions, unleashing his information like that.

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Dead players learn stuff, besides gravedigger (and I guess Oracle notifications) at the end of night.

That's totally a town mentality, at least for some players, which includes Zeit. I would be more critical if you put forth this argument, or if Zeit ran to it after-the-fact rather than mentioning it twice in his reveal.

If you aren't satisfied on this point, I hope you can still take the rest into account.

I actually think this (yesterDay) is clever. (But personally, I am going to try and stick with Day/Night X, since that archives and quotes better.)

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I have to step away for a bit, so the Dermon wall is still pending; sorry.

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The Chronicles of Lynching Dermon: Vol. I

Dermon is an inexperienced but shrewd and well-informed player. As such, he is prone to playing things by-the-book--safe, conservative scum play that is overly concerned about being linked to fellow scum.

This means nothing by itself of course. I only included it in my list because, why not?

This feels a bit forced, perhaps in the way it is addressed to him.

Smart but inexperienced mafia always list 3 initial scum reads, and exactly 1 of them is always scum. I've seen this happen so many times across hundreds of games.

*) Three feels like a safe, normal, ordinary number.
*) Throwing in a (one!) ally feels like the clever, safe, right thing to do. It's comfortable and satisfying.

Sesc was not scum. If my take on this is correct, it fits my running model that Dermon is coven with Luckylee.

(Though to be fair, this statement had a big part in establishing that model; for most of my second read-through, I had a big line at the top of my notes: DERMON scum with WETNURSE or LUCKYLEE?)

But let's dig into the meat of this.

This is benign, a null read. But the next one:

This does not feel like a full-hearted attack to me. I feels more like finger-wagging, more like distancing.

This feels like a really safe read. Really safe. See the tone with which he presents his detected hypocrisies?

Of course, we enjoy the hindsight now of knowing that Sesc was town.

A safe vote on someone we now know was town. Weak evidence by itself, but we're just checking boxes at this point.

And we move from one townie to the next.

Scum, especially eager inexperienced scum, are disproportionately more likely to perk up and take note at in-game descriptions of scumtells like this; they are more likely to avoid them personally, and seek to attribute them to others. We see Dermon do this immediately.

Nods politely with people pressuring scumbuddy, *check*.

This line isn't much, but does Dermon no favors.

THIS.

THIS IS WHERE IT BEGINS.

Look at this beautiful scum defense. The counter-attack, the built in-distancing... "but he could just be a sociopath." We know Rubicon is trying to assert control of the game, and this all starts with snipping this Dermon pressure in the bud.

At the time, Rubicon was in a safe position, and was no terribly worried about being connected to a scumbuddy. Besides, they have the Gravedigger, right?

Look at me everyone, look how suspicious I am of my scumbuddy Luckylee! Except not really, and I still want to lynch that other guy, but look at my scum reads! I'm a real townie, mom!

PREVIOUSLY, ON DAYS OF OUR LIVES...

 

Uhm. Wot. Dermon has been trying to lynch me for… days even if it hasn't gone anywhere. I'm somewhat baffled >.> His tunneling on me/weird interaction with Fonti is why I think he is scum, but I'm not too sure about Fonti anymore. I'm cool with Lynching Dermon though, he had pretty much no interaction with Bill Door/and you've shown his weird interactions with Rubi.

Lynch Vote Dermon

Still waiting for Proph though.