Post count wise there's a pattern. Lowish sample size I guess but.
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Not really.

I thought it might be due to lack of familiarity with some of your more recent games but I'm not sure having looked into that is helping.

 

I think your case on GH (906 and 1288 in particular) was outside your town range: it was wrong, but it reads as something you genuinely believed with all your heart, and the thought process was clear. And you just have these tonal markers that I like throughout the game? Analysis, thinking things through, combined with little moments of reconsideration and self-doubt.

The last line about having fucked up by engaging with scum is also probably more likely to occur to you as town.

 

Now correct me if I'm wrong but miner choose to not be around the past 2 EoDs and by his own words thinks that have gotten him lynched.

Can anyone tell me if they think I'm reading that wrong.
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What the actual fuck?

I said that I wouldn't be around for EOD. I made that very clear. It's not as if I was just like Lol bye.

 

Yeah idk what else to do here.

I don't think rubicon/Asmo is the team and miner has been tunneling me since d1 so the lynch is always between me and him anyway so I just have to hope he's a wolf I think.

 

I have returned from isos more convinced that Rubicon/Asmodeus in particular isn't a thing.

I'll try to start writing up/integrating everything/getting what I can ITT but I'm fighting sleep so am not sure how realistic that is.
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Asmodeus/Rubicon

- Mildly feel like Asmo gives more of a reason for townreading Rubicon in the first wall rather than just "liking so far" coming out of them both sounding grumpy when discussing how well Rubicon can read people
- I don't think Asmo makes a point of saying that he expected him or Rubicon to die N1 on D2; also don't think Rubicon anchors first half of his day pushing Asmo partly for that
- Overall vibe of their D2 interactions seems like two people genuinely feeling each other out (not w/w).

Rubicon has kind of a ... giddiness? about his push that has more depth to it than how I've ever seen him distance. e.g. the way he engages with Beruru about it early. (This also makes me feel like he believed it).

Asmo's initial response to Rubicon's vote has a kind of conciliatory ring to it, and I just don't think that's a likely attitude going into scum theater. The follow-up question seems actually aimed at contextualization/not a softball, so whether that's an attempt to actually solve Rubi or to get townread, I think it has a level of complexity that makes it unaligned.

And then Rubicon doesn't actually remember that it was Asmo who asked about his Beruru read, which I think is a general really good unaligned tell, but especially in context.

From an emotional trajectory standpoint I just don't feel like these back to back posts are w/w. Asmo's anger/"scrub" bit doesn't seem fake; Rubicon's response feels solvey rather than theatrical.

Already said this but I think Rubicon would be more on the nose with details if this were bussing. The way he meanders from the post to talking about Fable, and then "oh one other thing" -- just not necessary to try to add an extra layer of burying there, and seemed genuine to me.

Possible swag moments, but I don't really believe it-
+ Rubicon random vote on Asmo ("there's time to explore some scum too") and then later D1 responding to Asmo talking about it being easier to stay sane as town, to talk about "the key to happiness as a wolf"
+ Asmo #1178 during EOD2 CFD "RUBI why has the ship sailed come on duderino stop protecting your fellow cat" - kinda overly casual; felt out of place
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Fable/Miner

Man these two are weird.

My gut is telling me this isn't a thing but from writing it out, I feel like there's some reasons to think it's plausible. I guess I think the reasons that I think it's not plausible are just stronger?

+ This is super light but I feel like miner (who, WIFOMy as it is, stated that he thinks distancing is more often than not a good strategy in mountainous) is more likely to random vote a partner than rand
+ #145 Fable's sentiment that "I feel like talking about lynching Jari, Miner, Fluff is just a thing that happens every d1 because people want to force things to progress and they're all easy pushes to make regardless of their alignment" as a sentiment kinda doubtcasts miner suspicion
- At the time Fable posted volume reads on D1, miner had a below average post count, and I feel like that's more the thing you post when it makes your team look good?
- I feel like if w/w Miner would have a different conception/attitude about having talked about wagoning Fable EOD1. Like, I don't think this argument ends up being about Fable being defensive if they are:

- So, there was this exchange, and then Fable went to read RWBY specifically for miner. It's arguable that Fable was like, I wonder if I can go find an excuse to cancel out my scumread on my partner in RWBY. The exchange itself just...lacks agenda on Fable's end in such a way that I don't think it's a thing? Fable seems to be reacting, not theater-ing.

+ Uhhh. This one should maybe be a - for TWBTAW-Partner reasons. I don't even know:

Literally naming making miner look good as good info out of a Fluff lynch is a thing though. ... Although this isn't something Fable has actually brought up since, so it's not been an agenda-y thing?

I get the overall impression from various stuff throughout the game that miner has fully expected Fable to be a lynch this game (brought it up D1; 2nd preferred lynch at some point on D2; discussion of Fable "taking the L" at some point D3; references in various walls to "I'm not great at reading him but heavily consider lynching him in spite of my lack of indepth scumread"). Given miner's philosophy on mafia being so different from mine, I...don't entirely know what to do with this.

There's a contradiction with "I'm not changing my mind on my worlds and <conviction> about Fable" to "I don't think that lynching him today serves a purpose." Simultaneously arguably both agenda-y and not agenda-y. This is true about an actually annoying amount of interactions between them.

- I think they're less likely to call each other's bullshit on reasons why the NK doesn't clear them as w/w.

- I don't think miner is likely to be that indifferent to his possible lynch D2 if he's with Fable because Fable wasn't particularly unaligned from miner or positioned to win on his own at the time.
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Gnight thread. Will pick it up in the morning (hopefully goes faster then...)

 

Beruru 229
Asmo 226
Fable 177
Jan 138
Miner 125
GH 114
Rubicon 104
Fonti 96
Jarizok 88
Delphine 86
Fluff 45

Not that these matter just realized I hadn't done it in a while.

 

Hey Fable, since apparently I'm a lock wolf, where is your analysis on who my partner is e

 

I mean I was gonna figure that out tomorrow.

Probably just rubicon though.
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Like just going by today's posts I think rubicon is better but I actually went back and read stuff despite telling myself I wouldn't and I forgot how deep asmo went with some of his meta dives so now I'm back to rubicon/miner.

 

Which meta dives in particular?

 

^

I mean it's not clearing and I've lost to wolves who actually did do in depth meta dives but I still think it makes him less likely.

 

Ah. Okay.

That's not a meta dive? A meta dive is when you look up someone's games so you can read them better in this one. An in depth meta dive is when you dive deep into comparing games and seeing what tells the person has. That was a good post for the fun/conversational tone, but it's just him looking up a forum he'd never heard of out of curiosity.
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(Also, in the very next post he says: 'I was afraid it'd come off as if I was "trying to look like I was I was doing work/metadiving" or w/e'
which is uh...)

 

I guess but I still don't think he does it as wolf?

Though I suppose it doesn't really matter atm.
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Also there is kind of a high poster pass aspect to this as well.....

 

I mean... it's not even game-related.

 

But what if it was?

 

I hadn't thought about it from that angle.

 

Been swamped the last couple of days, but I'm free tonight and tomorrow so I'll be here til I'm happy with my reads.

Rubicon Read Progression:

#21: Votes Asmodeus in RVS

#78: "Slight townread" on GH. Curious about Jan's spewclear.
=Slight TR GH

#104: "Mild feelings of distrust and unease" towards Miner, but notes he did like Miner's "beruru vote, because I feel like beruru's opening post is scum beruru". Also votes Beru. Says "Jan is Null", Asmo/Delphine unaligned (not w/w) for catpics.
=Slight SR Miner, SR Beru, Vote Beru, NULL Jan, Delphine/Asmo not w/w

#133: To Jari, "is a good look for you probably?"
=Very Slight TR Jari

#177: Votes Fonti, no explanation aside from "Hmm."
=Vote Fonti

#217: Explanation of previous vote makes Fonti a SR. To Miner, "I'm not voting you because I've liked your fonti push. I have no strong read either way on the rest of your content, which is sort of a mix of "??!" and "...""
=(slight?) SR Fonti, NULL(confused?) Miner

#226: Agrees with Delphine's SR on GH.
=(Slight?) SR GH.

#233: "I don't townread Jarizok to begin with" ... "he is not my first choice to lynch right now."
=NOT TR Jari

#271: Beru's "subsequent posts have been more town for attitude and interactions".
=Beru "more town" from previous SR. Total probably "Null-Slight SR Beru"

#422: "Jarizok's case on Jan is some serious bullshit."
=Slight SR Jari

#424: "Jarizok, to me your case looks constructed to fit the read, instead of the read arising from you actually trying to figure people out, studying their posts, and showing your reasoning." Also says Jari is different from past games where, "the goal was to sort people, not just get someone lynched."
=SR Jari

#498: Just the vote. Note 74 post gap between this and previous case.
=Vote Jari

#500: Builds on Jari vote
=SR+ Jari

#527: To Jari, "I don't really want to lynch Jan. Or beruru. Or fluff. Or fonti. Anyone else you would support? I would actually have lynched Miner but I felt like you spewed him town earlier." Saying "you spewed him town" to someone who hasn't flipped means this also serves as an affirmation of Jari scumread. Put the full post because "don't really want to lynch" isn't a read in either direction. Note "would actually have lynched Miner but you spewed him town".
=SR++ Jari. Don't want to lynch: Jan, Beru, Fluff, Fonti. Would've lynched Miner but was spewed town by Jari.
Note: Rubi's mentioned this to me before, but I'm only just getting the full picture now (pretty sure he points to the "spew" post later, but this gives it context). I can see his reasoning, but now I just have to figure out whether he, as town, was so certain Jari would flip scum that he was already calling out spews.

#530: "could probably (lynch) GH in a pinch" "Fluff is a no"
=Slight SR GH, TR Fluff

#545: Followup on his spew post from earlier. Points to the post he was referring to about scum!Jari spewing Miner town.

#797: "more suspicious of you for that reason", reason being my defense of Jari/Jari flipping town.
=Slight SR Asmo
Note: First post of D2. Surprised on rereading to see no reaction from Rubi on Jari's flip, given how certain he seemed to be that Jari was scum.

#806 "Strongly dislike the way Asmo set up the shift onto beruru yesterday and in general it just doesn't make sense to me based on the things he wrote about beru early in the day, which strike me as still true. Also dislike "Is this why you killed her?"" Preceded by vote.
=SR Asmodeus, Vote Asmodeus
Note: In reading this, I actually like his followup question to Fable, "Fable, it strikes me that this is the one read of yours that fluff has a point about. You like him because you like his reads? Unless I missed some more explanation.". I think "him" refers to me there, and I like this question because.. actually @Rubicon if you could quickly touch on why you asked Fable this, I'd appreciate it. I think I know why, but I'd like to hear your reason.

#846: Thinks Beru's "tone in this game is the opposite of their tone in the recent scum game, and I think they are more engaged with analysis too. Wouldn't recommend lynching them today."
=TR Beru

#850/#852: Talks about Fluff townmeta. Kind of wavers because of "RL reasons" that could cause the Fluff towntell he was referring to. Talks about another aspect of Fluff townmeta. Says fluff had done a "very rough approximation of this"
=Slight TR Fluff

#897: Note: Interesting question to Miner, asking about Delphine's slot and noting that Miner had only mentioned her "exactly once this game. I only quoted this because I had noticed that Rubi, up until this point (#897), had only mentioned Delphine three times in the context of either talking to her or sharing thoughts on her. Once, to say that Asmo/Delphine are unaligned for both sharing catpictures, and two times to say "I agree"/"agreed" to things she had said about GH and Miner. That's all. Hopefully nothing, but interesting to note given that he made this post to Miner.

#972: "We should lynch Miner" + vote
=Vote Miner.
Note: First actual read on Miner since his NULLread earlier and the following "scum!Jari spewed Miner town" thing. Seems a bit sudden, given that he had only mentioned/talked to Miner twice that phase, both times asking him to give reads. Just that, then this vote drop and shifting off his SR+Vote on me after saying he would "mull over" my response. The following post asks Miner to post a reads wall, but Rubi himself had not posted one up to this point, despite my asking him to share his thoughts and reads. Still, failing to post one himself does not disqualify him from asking Miner to do so, and I can see how that push for more content before the vote might come from town.

#1021: "The problem, Miner, is that you're still posting stuff that is very ??? to people who know town!you."
=Slight(?) SR Miner

#1110: "feeling a town core of beru, Fable and Jan." "Lynching Asmo today is probably stupid."
=TR Beru, Fable, Jan. Slight SR Asmo (I think, given he seems to be considering it here)

#1114: ="Because it's hard to work out who would be Miner's partner if not GH, with my PoE."

#1120: To GH, about GH's Fluff/Rubi pairing, "I'm wondering if this is an attempt to tie me to your partner."
Note: Progression here is a bit weird. Wants Miner lynched and thinks he's scum. --> Goes to figure out GH because he thinks GH is likely Miner's partner. --> Says GH might be trying to tie Rubi to GH's partner, Fluff.
I say it's weird because that ignores both his TR on Fluff and his SR on Miner. I can see that fear being genuine if Rubi's SR on Miner was weak to begin with. This is followed up by #1130, where he elaborates on Fluff/GH world.

#1164: "I think the ship has sailed on a fluff wagon today, despite the fact he appears to be scumclaiming itt." Noteworthy because of his later resistance to a Fluff lynch.

#1169: Gets off Miner wagon at EoD, votes GH, says not to do CFD onto Fluff. This is preceded by #1139, where he says "Someone needs to switch votes."
=Votes GH, perhaps for fear of time running out and the necessity of a lynch.

1183: "All right then" and votes Fluff.
=Votes Fluff

#1197: On Miner/GH: No reason "to rule out miner/GH other than "game can't possibly be that easy.", "It would be shocking if they were both town."
=At least one wolf in Miner/GH

#1240: "In other news, I think both Asmo and beruru are townier for making a legitimate effort to move the game forward with the last two wallposts."
=Slight TR Asmo (slight because of previous reads), TR Beru

#1274: To GH: "I'm not okay with you repeatedly saying I'm town except for interactions with X and then voting X instead of me."
=Slight SR GH
Note: While I fully get where Rubi seems to be coming from in expressing frustration at GH repeatedly saying "Rubi town unless (Fluff)(Miner) is scum", I really don't like the first part of this post. He says, "You need to be voting me today if you think the team is me/Miner. It's the tougher push, but would be a much townier decision for you to make here.". I've looked at this and looked at this and looked at this repeatedly, and it still doesn't make sense to me. GH had said he thought Rubi was town, except maybe Fluff/Rubi pairing. Then he said he thought Rubi was town, except maybe Miner/Rubi pairing. While the repeated "except"s would be frustrating to anyone, how is it the "much townier decision" for GH to vote Rubi, who he mostly townreads, instead of pushing for Miner (or Fluff, previously), who he was scumreading? @Rubicon any insight you can shed on this would be appreciated

#1278: To Beru, "I think Asmo is town and me fighting him for your entertainment is probably not what this game needs."
=TR Asmo
Note: @Rubicon, you told Miner "Otherwise, you've mostly been whining about people scumreading you." last phase. How do you reconcile reading Miner scum for that with you reading Fable town for the same thing this phase?

#1310: First reads list. First read on Delphine. Gonna quote this one:

Note:Since then, exactly the top town and the top scum have died. @Rubicon why have I gone from the top to the bottom of your reads? What's changed? I've asked this question before but, like most (many?) of the questions I've asked you this game, you're more content to leave them unanswered.

#1318:
Note: To Beru, when she says she wants to call his bluff on telling GH to vote him instead of Miner, "It's not that I'm "willing to be lynched" it's that I want people to try, if they really think I'm scum.
I want GH to have the balls to actually commit to his reads." To be fair, he had you as town when you told him that (except for fluff, except for miner). Committing to his reads would be doing exactly what he did: pushing Miner. Also, "would just prefer you lay out whatever concerns you have about me so I can address them." is ironic considering this is exactly how I've felt towards you all game.

#1372: Doesn't see what Fable is doing to help his team if scum. Thinks there should be more agenda in Fable's posts if Fable is scum.
=TR Fable

#1389:
=TR+ Fable
Note: "Also it's just what I think after being a wolf with you and reading your other wolf game and also wallowing in paranoia is for pussies. Uh, no offense.". I asked this earlier in this post @Rubicon, but how do you reconcile your townread on Fable for "wallowing", with your scumread on Miner for doing the same?
Also, "I've been rereading, up to around post 600.", Amrock would lynch you for this FYI. He calls it the "universal scumtell".

#1391: "the team is exactly Asmo/Miner", and "I would probably shit myself if Delphine is scum here". Notable because this is exactly his 2nd Delphine read of the entire game.
=SR Asmo, SR Miner, TR Delphine
Note: @Rubicon you said, "The main thing I'm looking at in my reread is Asmo's progressions on different players. The problem I've had with his posts throughout the game is that he tends to misread people's posts in ways that make them seem scummier.". Ok. So, like, if this has been an ongoing thing that you've been thinking throughout the game, why is now the first time you bring it up? Also, can you please quote me specific examples of where you thought I was doing that? Because I really don't see how you could think that if you actually read my posts. Everyone in this game has points that make me go "wait this person might actually be town", and second guess myself as a result. So please, show me where I "misread people's posts in ways that make them seem scummier". The one place where I might see that is in my GH/Fable wall, because I had read a lot and come to a conclusion, then tiredly tried to explain how I came to my conclusion before crashing, so I can see how someone might think that I was pushing a specific thought.

Still don't like how he tries to say that "closing off possible mislynches for himself" makes him less likely to be scum in the same post as the reads that he claims do so.

---------------------
End of Progression
---------------------


Thoughts: I started to reverse my read on Rubi in reading the first part of this ISO. I thought that, perhaps, I only saw Rubi=Scum as a response to not working hard enough to make sense of other worlds and that tinfoiling too hard had led me to a wrong conclusion. This continued until I reached the phase after Fluff's lynch, when he began to push on GH. Since then, he gets progressively more agenda-y. The odd way he got on GH (outlined in my notes in #1120), followed by the progression the next day (post-Fluff) on GH also strikes me as off. Without actually making a case or saying why (beyond GH saying he's town except Miner), Rubi makes his reads list post where GH is on the absolute bottom, even below Miner. Another thing I didn't like is how he seems so sure of every lynch, and then just bounces back the next phase with a hard SR on the next lynch. His scumread on me today feels like OMGUS after I said I wanted him lynched today, considering I was at the top of his townlist yesterday. The reason he gave (that I've been misreading posts all game to make them seem scummier) doesn't pan out with how drastic a shift it is and I have a hard time believing he even believes it, considering his earlier townread of me was based on me solving (one doesn't solve by intentionally misreading posts to make them seem scummier), and considering the amount of times I've second guessed my reads. His conclusion that the scumteam is "exactly Asmo/Miner is strangely certain and absolute, given that this is lylo and he hadn't even reread at the time of posting that (he said he was on post 600). He cleared Delphine (understandable, I was doing the same until I forced myself to actually devote myself to solving tonight) and Fable (???) and basically chucked me and Miner into the remaining pile and declared us wolves.

I don't see how that's actually trying to solve the game. It looks more like trying to look good while surviving than actually trying to solve anything.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wanna look into Miner's progressions in a couple of places (saw a couple of weird stuff while doing Rubi's, like Miner saying "Rubi never scum for this" or something along those lines just last phase, and then having him as top scum today.

Also want to double check Delphine for her progression on Rubi (doing due diligence after noticing how rarely he ever talked about her).

Then I want to compare Rubi/Miner to a game I found while doing this ISO.
I did a search on the wording of one of Rubi's posts (He asked Fluff, "How does that make you feel?" about being the counterwagon to Jari in D1.) because it struck me as off that anyone would ask that specific question. Didn't look like there's much to gain from it. Searched Little Italy forum for User: Rubicon and it brought up Mountainous Mafia #1, where Rubi and Miner were both town. In the process of reading their ISOs, will update when I have more but aorn they both feel different than this game.

Rubi seems tonally different, like an energetic hypeball instead of the serious Rubi I've seen this game.

Miner's posts over there are actually readable and I can actually follow his thoughts. He even posted read WALLS! Might have to check other games on this site for more, because right now I think he's very different in this game than he was in either Stardew or Mountainous Maf #1. That's not a good sign, considering he was town in both.

but kk I'll be here probably for another couple hours if anyone logs on and wants to talk
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What does this even mean @Delphine

 

Writing on tapatalk to not lose stuff from computer.
Halfway done with Miner. Lot of differences, some striking similarities. It's 7am and I'm way too tired and don't want to rush anything because that always turns out badly
Gonna go sleep and finish tomorrow
So much to check so little time why do humans need sleep

Aorn probably still lynching Rubi. We need to be unified on the lynch though because with these rules wolves win if we don't hit softlynch so that gives them more room to control it. Don't like how everyone is so willing to lynch miner and has been since D2. It's definitely understandable, but it's just reminding me of the GH lynch and I don't like it.
@Miner you said Rubi was never scum last phase. What caused you to change your mind so drastically this phase?
@everyone else, (mainly fable and delphine because miner and rubi both seem fixed on their answers) two questions:
who are your top 2 scum and why?
If miner is [emoji817] scum confirmed, who do you think his partner is? Please answer asap.

Kk going to bed g'night/morning. See you all in a few hrs.

 

Asmodeus/miner

Asmo very much was considering miner as a lynch for Day 2, but drove the Fluff CFD in the last few minutes. In general, Asmo seems to have a net-negative opinion of miner about every other game Day. I...should probably have a stronger opinion on that than I actually do.

+ There's something...overexplainy/awkward about their first interaction? Awkward vibe I think just comes from the "!" and "But seriously." miner's way more guarded about his explanation of meta with other people, and the conversation comes off a bit forced.

+ Comparing the attitude Asmo has toward GH intentionally changing up his meta to miner, I feel like Asmo's treatment of it w/r/t miner is a lot more softbally/open-minded.

Re: Miner

Re: GH

+ Based on the actual words Asmo's using to describe his late D1 reads, the miner townread here seems really stretched?

'I'm townreading him even though my feelings about him sound more negative than not.' Maybe this is TWTBAW-partner. But it's weird how, tonally, the miner read sounds like the Jari one but they're in different tiers.

- This at EOD1 was spicy:

But lacks the same fervor when brought up on D2. Looking at that in more detail:

Spoiler

This is really...convoluted. There is a depth of thought process about the latter exchange which seems somewhat harder to have if you have role PM/scumchat insight into what someone's actual motivations are at EOD. But miner, on why he stated Asmo's voting behavior was scummy/disgusting but wasn't prioritizing it: "So I was just confused and called it disgusting to see what you had to say about it." I'm reading that as 'My reasoning didn't make sense, but I'm retroactively framing it as a reaction test that I overstated my suspicion of.' Because of that, and the fact that Asmo kinda stays at an 'I wouldn't lynch today, but maybe someday cuz idk him' read throughout that game day and others, I don't really get the impression that miner's overall read/place in his lynch order is very dependent on Asmo's actual posts..? This exchange from D3 makes me feel the same way:

+

First paragraph is like...a slap on the wrist? He comes off more annoyed about having to answer anything than trying to get anything from Asmo's long automerge there. Like, "let me come back to this when GH flips town." Which seems slightly partner-y.

- When Asmo looked up Stardew meta that looked bad for miner (#1060), he was only asking Jan about Fluff's - so he wasn't on any kind of hook to provide info there. So that's a pretty hard level of bussing, which if they're partners he's not even really committing to (he ends both D1 and D3 with calling miner "probably town").

+ I'm concerned by Asmo attacking GH on the basis that his miner push was "easy" due to picking up the mindset slip tell, because of the fact that Asmo feels the need to defend Asmo's own behavior around miner.

Projection + hey look how townie I am specifically w/r/t my handling of miner?? Weird as hell. Particularly because I feel like Asmo has understated the oddness of miner w/r/t D1 possible mindset slip. e.g.

This is less specifically partnery and more just something I'm not following from Asmo's miner progression-

I'm just not clear on why Asmo changed his mind here to this extent?

Kinda on the same note,

What in his recent posts at the time did you like?
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Was referencing the lack of follow-up on my #1367.

Which, idk if you're walking on eggshells around me due to the first bit of that post, but now is not the time?

 

Asmo I'm never switching my vote and you should be able to understand why. Delphine is not a wolf, if she is she deserves the win and we lose and I'm fine with that.

That leaves me with a pool of you, rubicon, miner to work from. From my PoV all I have to do Is clear one pair and vote for the player the two remaining pairs have in common to lynch a wolf. Between delphine's post and what I've looked into myself I think the team being you/rubicon is fairly unlikely. This means miner is a wolf 100% of the time and I can see him with both you and rubicon so I'm not too interested on trying to gamble on figuring out the other side of the equation right now.